Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[RitualOfTheTrout]

28 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Merry Christmas Eve, everyone.


.

 I do sorta feel like a kid before Christmas right now. I've been flying high for a couple days. Really enjoyable when things improve, then hold and you get the days of fun looking at models and all the storm hype in the community etc.

[MikeB_01]

12z NAM pretty similar but maybe a little more amped. Brings the L right over top before the transfer

[wstaude]

IMBY I'm gonna say 9". Hoping for more.

[Rd9108]

Gonna be riding the line on the NAM. Basically nowcast time

[MikeB_01]

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

12z NAM pretty similar but maybe a little more amped. Brings the L right over top before the transfer

Sorry. NAM is very similar. to the 6z. The 12z 3k brought the L right over top

[Rd9108]

[MikeB_01]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm hoping that screw zone is a mirage and it wont show up in real time

[MikeB_01]

while i wait for the 15z SREFs, here are the last 4 means for KPIT. Continues to climb ever slightly

[RitualOfTheTrout]

30 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

I'm hoping that screw zone is a mirage and it wont show up in real time

It is concerning for anyone south east of the city, and will probably reduce ratios just north of that. 3k NAM excels at sniffing out those warm layers more course models might smooth over. Its getting in range too so you can't dismiss it. That being said its probably still useful until at least 12z tomorrow combined with nowcast obs since the sleet threat isn't until tomorrow afternoon. By then the storm will be developed and any NAM over amp tendencies should not be a consideration.

[TimB]

So we’re still not worried in or near the city, right?

[Ecanem]

Posted the wrong one from my phone. 
 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

So we’re still not worried in or near the city, right?

Do not underestimate the warm tongue but looks like with track its south east of the city. 

[SteelCity87]

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

So we’re still not worried in or near the city, right?

I'm sweating bullets in Crafton lol 

[TimB]

Yeah I saw this exchange elsewhere and now I’m worried.

[MikeB_01]

3 minutes ago, TimB said:

So we’re still not worried in or near the city, right?

totally not nervous at all

[Burghblizz]

10 minutes ago, TimB said:

Yeah I saw this exchange elsewhere and now I’m worried.

“Reliable source”

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

“Reliable source”

lol, exactly.

[Rd9108]

Gfs is warmer now still a great hit in the city.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

 I do sorta feel like a kid before Christmas right now. I've been flying high for a couple days. Really enjoyable when things improve, then hold and you get the days of fun looking at models and all the storm hype in the community etc.

It's funny you posted this. Yesterday at work, all day it felt like the last day of work before the Christmas off days. I was actually going to post it in my central PA thread, but didn't.

[colonel717]

6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs is warmer now still a great hit in the city.

You aren't kidding, great wow.

[Rd9108]

Just now, colonel717 said:

You aren't kidding, great wow.

Nowcasting and obs out west will be telling. 22 would be insane. 

[Rd9108]

warmest it gets on the gfs. Imagine if the euro shows the same 

[Mailman]

[Mailman]

[colonel717]

10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nowcasting and obs out west will be telling. 22 would be insane. 

Does the RAP go higher. Coming out now. I rarely use the mesos for storm totals, but if they align with others I give them more credence. 

[colonel717]

I can never remember a storm where we had a Low that close to us where we didn't flip.  I know south of us may, but I would have expected some in AGC. So we will see.

[dj3]

Good luck everyone and hopefully we can all avoid significant mixing. This has been an awesome tracking week. We don't have many like this where it has taken us from fringed Monday to essentially the bullseye and held steady. 

[colonel717]

We lost .1 from RAP. Getting nervous gonna miss us..

[SteelCity87]

9 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

I can never remember a storm where we had a Low that close to us where we didn't flip.  I know south of us may, but I would have expected some in AGC. So we will see.

My main concern because I can't either. I noticed point and click has a mix included now all the way to to Mckeesport. 

[southpark]

43 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

totally not nervous at all

I mentioned the warm nose a few days ago after seeing certain trends and someone was like nope. And here we are lol.