Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

Still snowing too on the Rgem

[colonel717]

[Rd9108]

These are always fun

[Rd9108]

Does the cmc precip maps still exist. The ones with the real dark blues?

[Burghblizz]

GFS is gonna hold

[colonel717]

[colonel717]

[Rd9108]

[Burghblizz]

2 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Maybe a smidge drier overall, but certainly nothing that leaps towards the NAM.

0Z may be interesting as it corrected (in a good way) north yesterday. But obviously a wide sweet spot still 

[MikeB_01]

And all is well…


.

[Ahoff]

5 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Crush job!

[Mailman]

Good ol' DT.  

 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Most men exaggerate things so yes it maybe a bit. 

Please.. Only slant stick measurements we want photos of is the snow in your yard. 

[TheClimateChanger]

[TheClimateChanger]

Expected snowfall through 7 pm Sunday:

[TheClimateChanger]

90th percentile:

[Ahoff]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

90th percentile:

So, they're expecting about 4 more inches after 7pm Sunday.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

55 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Crush job!

You said it, GFS looks good! 

[Ahoff]

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

You said it, GFS looks good! 

Let's hope it's on to something, I know it's not the best model out there.

[Rd9108]

[Rd9108]

One more then Ill be back for the NAM

[southpark]

1 minute ago, Mailman said:

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A Winter Storm Watch continues for the entire region.
Significant snow accumulations are possible Saturday night into
Monday.

The northward trend has continued to some degree in the latest 
guidance suite. We still foresee northern Plains and southern 
Rockies mid-level shortwaves to phase as they cross into the Middle 
Ohio Valley. As they do so, a surface low develops near the Gulf 
coast and tracks northeastward. There is still some variance with 
the track of this low. The northern trend is starting to increase 
the chance of some mixed precipitation to the southeast of 
Pittsburgh, and a slight chance of freezing rain has been introduced 
to the gridded forecast. The chances of this are not high enough to 
meaningfully change the overall snow totals or the messaging to a 
significant degree, but it is a trend that we will need to monitor 
as the event approaches. In any event, support for overall lift
remains quite good given a coupled 250mb jet structure, layered
frontogenesis, and an inverted surface trough. A moisture surge
including precipitable water totals of around 0.7 inch (90th
percentile for late January) and a deep, saturated dendritic
growth zone will also support significant snowfall totals.

Although model clusters are starting to show a bit better agreement 
with the synoptic pattern, there remains a wide range of outcomes 
in the guidance regarding storm totals. Here are the latest
48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from 
NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County):

12":30-70%
8": 60-90% 
6": 80-95%
4": 85-99%

There is an important consideration regarding these totals. With
the northward trend in guidance/warm air intrusion, a slight 
lowering of snow-to-liquid ratio is noted. Ratios may drop to 
between 10:1 and 15:1 from Pittsburgh on north, and potentially 
to the 8:1 range or so towards the Mason-Dixon Line. So, a 
wetter, heavier snow may be possible as compared to previous 
messaging. These lower ratios may ultimately cut down snow 
totals as well. We will continue to monitor these trends and
adjust accordingly. However, there is fairly high confidence in
Winter Storm Warning-level impacts across the forecast area, and
an eventual upgrade is nearly certain. It still appears that the
heaviest snow should be during the day Sunday, and then tapering
off that night. Cold northwesterly flow and the crossing parent
upper trough could result in lingering snow into Monday.

This system has the likelihood for widespread impacts from a 
significant snowfall. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Their messaging/discussion has gotten so much better over the last so many years.