ChescoWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern. From this vantage point IMHO this is where you want the GEFS to be.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Snowguy66 said: F DT. He occasionally gets one right but is often wrong. At least DT is always calm and measured in his thoughts...great spelling to boot!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: From this vantage point IMHO this is where you want the GEFS to be.... Could be totally wrong on this and just guessing what you are saying, but i feel like we have said that a lot this year with certain storms and they haven't trended NW, probably wrong on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Could be totally wrong on this and just guessing what you are saying, but i feel like we have said that a lot this year with certain storms and they haven't trended NW, probably wrong on my part The GFS/GEFS were consistently too far south and east with the storm 3 weeks ago. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The gfs sucks and it’s been upgraded so it’s safe to assume it’s ensemble package running off a decade old core isn’t going to perform any better. Out of all ensembles they by far should get weighted less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago DT regurgitates the Euro. Since it's not enthusiastic about this storm, neither is he. If the Euro hops onboard, he'll be the first to issue ALEETS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: DT regurgitates the Euro. Since it's not enthusiastic about this storm, neither is he. If the Euro hops onboard, he'll be the first to issue ALEETS. DT has some kind of weird love affair with that model. Every forecast he puts out essentially mirrors what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS went east. This is the fail scenario that most concers me and fits seasonal pattern. GEPS otoh: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Snow map is absolutely bonkers. This would exceed 1996 and rival 2016 in the Lehigh Valley. It reminds me of some of the wild RGEM/CMC OP runs from 2021 ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Newman said: It reminds me of some of the wild RGEM/CMC OP runs from 2021 ha Still have the RGEM run saved where it printed out 4-5 feet for the Lehigh Valley. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Still have the RGEM run saved where it printed out 4-5 feet for the Lehigh Valley. I was literally going back in my images to look for that exact run What a fun storm that one was. For me personally down in Fleetwood, I enjoyed it more than 2016. We got more snow and, although rates never exceeded 2" an hour at peak, it snowed literally for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 28 minutes ago, Newman said: I was literally going back in my images to look for that exact run What a fun storm that one was. For me personally down in Fleetwood, I enjoyed it more than 2016. We got more snow and, although rates never exceeded 2" an hour at peak, it snowed literally for days. That storm started on a Sunday afternoon and didn’t fully end till Wednesday morning. It was like 6 inches on Sunday, 15 inches on Monday, and the rest on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the total at ABE airport was about 2 feet. One of our greatest storms of all time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: That storm started on a Sunday afternoon and didn’t fully end till Wednsday morning. It was like 6 inches on Sunday, 15 inches on Monday, and the rest on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the total at ABE airport was about 2 feet. One of our greatest storms of all time. Yup, that was amazing. 22.5" as measured on my back deck: Not really holding out hope for this one, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: That storm started on a Sunday afternoon and didn’t fully end till Wednsday morning. It was like 6 inches on Sunday, 15 inches on Monday, and the rest on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the total at ABE airport was about 2 feet. One of our greatest storms of all time. I lived right across LVIA at that point. Amazing storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: DT regurgitates the Euro. Since it's not enthusiastic about this storm, neither is he. If the Euro hops onboard, he'll be the first to issue ALEETS. what's funny is that the OP euro has been brutal this winter too...not GFS bad but still pretty bad. The AI euro is crushing the OP euro in verification scores last I saw...it's going to be a clear upgrade once it's fully integrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 48 minutes ago, Newman said: I was literally going back in my images to look for that exact run What a fun storm that one was. For me personally down in Fleetwood, I enjoyed it more than 2016. We got more snow and, although rates never exceeded 2" an hour at peak, it snowed literally for days. I had like 3 inches from that storm all on the wrap around stall the next day after the brunt of it. Still leaves a bad taste in my mouth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 52 minutes ago, Newman said: I was literally going back in my images to look for that exact run What a fun storm that one was. For me personally down in Fleetwood, I enjoyed it more than 2016. We got more snow and, although rates never exceeded 2" an hour at peak, it snowed literally for days. Agreed 16.6" over 4 days! a truly unique storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z looking very flat so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: The sun angle is doing work this week. There is a bare spot in my yard, first actual grass I’ve seen in about a month. Snowpack is now dwindling by about an inch or two per day. The fog and rain the next 3 days are going to do damage. By the time Sunday comes around, I'd bet there's not much left other than piles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MickeyTim6533 said: 18z looking very flat so far. Surprised to hear you being less enthused over a model run.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Surprised to hear you being less enthused over a model run.... I mean, its quite obvious its much flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Surprised to hear you being less enthused over a model run.... Seems like that’s the only time he shows up in the MA and Philly thread 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago trend toward the EURO? Virginia Beach hammered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago We’re not in a bad spot at the moment. Would prefer if the trends at 18z don’t continue at 0z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This GFS run is WEIRD lmfao. It cuts back West at 126 and practically stalls near Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, ChescoWx said: Surprised to hear you being less enthused over a model run.... The ignore feature only works if you jokers stop quoting! GFS is a big hit for 95 through SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CNJ gets obliterated on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A lot of bridge jumping already on the 18Z GFS. Point is we have a nice storm to track and still 5/6 days away. Better than tracking cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z GFS reminds me a lot of Boxing Day 2010. A storm that was so painfully close in eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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