E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[MJO812]

Gefs looks great 

[Duca892]

EURO AI this morning a nothing burger

[Violentweatherfan]

Hey @Roger Smithis there an up stream kicker forcing it OTS?

[Newman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im not loving all 3 major ens systems taking the system farther off the coast at 0z. If we are going to have a reversal like last system, changes need to happen by 12z wednesday imo. This was looking better 24 hrs ago but there is still time.

I wonder if we can sacrifice a super wound up, phased, negative tilted system with just having it dig less south and close off closer to our latitude. At least then you get some ULL snows. Certainly not giving up on this one yet, the larger setup is volatile to small changes

[MickeyTim6533]

Euro Ai, squateroo. this one is slipping away fast

[MickeyTim6533]

6z Euro says no. not good.

[The Iceman]

49 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Euro Ai, squateroo. this one is slipping away fast

 

42 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

6z Euro says no. not good.

 

13 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Read more.  Post less.

 

[MickeyTim6533]

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

[The Iceman]

This feature circled has trended further southeast almost every run, I have no idea if this is affecting the outcome but it was above Montana/north Dakota on the flush euro hits yesterday and today it’s in southern Minnesota. 
 

[MickeyTim6533]

there's just no negative tilt to bring it closer. we need to accept that

[MickeyTim6533]

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

[The Iceman]

Just now, MickeyTim6533 said:

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

Bro we don’t care if it misses or not, you are literally contributing nothing though. We all know how to look at the models.

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Bro we don’t care if it misses or not, you are literally contributing nothing though. We all know how to look at the models.

He's all over the boards this morning. Just put him on ignore.

[MickeyTim6533]

low of 5 today. damn cold

[MickeyTim6533]

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Euro Ai, squateroo. this one is slipping away fast

Cannot be slipping away fast with more than 4 days to go....been there done this way too many times.

[Violentweatherfan]

52 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

This feature circled has trended further southeast almost every run, I have no idea if this is affecting the outcome but it was above Montana/north Dakota on the flush euro hits yesterday and today it’s in southern Minnesota. 
 

That’s the kicker 

[JTA66]

1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said:

That’s the kicker 

So we want that norther or wester? Yeah, I always thought the rule of thumb is we want that junk dropping in over the Dakotas.

[ChescoWx]

Plenty of single digit lows this morning with our lowest as is often the case in Warwick Township with a low of 3.8 above zero. Several degrees colder both today and Wednesday with highs in the upper teens with low temperatures in the colder valley locations near or below zero. Even colder air arrives on Thursday and Friday with widespread below zero readings and highs in the low to mid-teens. There will be a coastal low this weekend, but most model guidance keeps the impacts well east of the Philly burbs with snow possible toward the NJ shore points. That said there is still a possibility it will trend a bit closer to the coast and gives us some additional snow. Stay warm!

[Violentweatherfan]

26 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

So we want that norther or wester? Yeah, I always thought the rule of thumb is we want that junk dropping in over the Dakotas.

From past experiences once there is a kicker its pretty much game over 

[Violentweatherfan]

You want zero interaction and or have the kicker late or non existent