December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

[*Flash*]

I think the January thaw can be overly used sometimes, almost in almanac-y fashion. Even the best winters had their patented patterns relax a time or two; granted, I get how a transition into pause can be unsettling. Apart from present timing, I'm not bummed about a reload due to its necessity and how much we've historically benefited from them. Assuming the upcoming warm spell is overhyped, I could see monthly temps verifying close to average for most, maybe a little above average for west/middle TN. 

Also, I agree with the idea we'll flip cold at some point in January. May not be seasonal climax level but perhaps the start of a stairstep into glory. I know for me, times like these latch my hopes to analogs. For instance, if you like second half loaded winters, our latitude is a place to be as we've seen plenty of them the past decade (I.e. 2014-15 and 2020-21). Those examples saw some gnashing of teeth in the first half before things went gangbusters in the second. Not to suggest this winter is like those winters or anything we've seen the past decade. Certainly, this year feels unique already with our closest saving grace being on the Atlantic side, not the Pacific. Go back and review past winter threads and you'll see how the PNA/WPO/EPO were highly discussed along with the MJO. Per Michael Scott, oh, how the turned tables. 

Whatever transpires in the short term, let the record show I don't ask for much but amplification, volatility, and any west-based retrograding on those strat/Atlantic teleconnections. Winters with trackable systems within multi-week ebb and flows are my favorite. 

[beavis1729]

Speaking for myself on the chinook discussion, I didn’t intend to imply that it would directly affect us with warmth for a long period of time. The problem, in my mind, is the existence of the chinook pattern itself, even though it has really only caused warmth in MT, CO, WY, NE, SD. This has been going on for several weeks. Places like Denver, Cheyenne, and Rapid City have essentially had no winter so far, and unfortunately that looks to continue for the rest of the month. 

Joe Bastardi, or perhaps a different met, has a saying about “the angle of the cold”. In a chinook pattern, the angle of the cold is wrong for us, for two reasons. First, even when it does stay cold here, it’s very dry and boring due to NW flow. Second, the warmth is always lurking, because we’re on the far western edge of the cold airmass. So, any minor change in the flow quickly makes it warmer here. That happened last week in my neck of the woods, where a couple of good early season snowfalls melted away because the warmth out west pivoted over here…even though it only lasted for a few days. 

The point of all this is that, to me, it’s a much better pattern for all of us when there is no chinook at all. I like to see highs come down into the western plains, creating upslope snow in MT/WY/CO, then the cold eventually trickles east and lasts for awhile. Basically, I’m describing a -EPO from a more “on the ground” perspective. 

I just think the current pattern (starting around 12/5) has been very obnoxious, and unfortunately it looks to continue for 10 more days. Definitely good to see some light at the end of the tunnel, and it can’t come soon enough. 

[Carvers Gap]

AIGFS is available on WxBell as of today....new product from the NWS and Co.   The NWS version has the AI-GFS, AI-GEFS, AI-Hybrid(includes current GFS which is combined with the AI model).

NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.

AI-driven global weather models

[beavis1729]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

AIGFS is available on WxBell as of today....new product from the NWS and Co.

NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.

AI-driven global weather models

Nice find, and I see it listed as an option on Pivotal Weather too. 

[jaxjagman]

Looks like more like the GFS in the long range,anoms are like 30F-AN on NYD

[jaxjagman]

Sure its still a work in progress,post this just to see around New Years if its close to a severe look,cant get cold bring on severe

[Matthew70]

There is winners & losers in any pattern as we all know.  Even with the Chinook here in TN it’s been a cold December so far.  At least it’s felt & looked on some days like a wintry Christmas.  I think I saw where Chicago was off to a great start for snow?  Maybe it was the snowiest in some time?  Even ND has had a lot of snow.  The pattern will change, and there will be winners & losers again with the reshuffle. I just think many have forgotten winter has officially not even started for most.  We’ve been cold enough so far in December to actually have snow showers & dustings for many.  Anytime you get snow in December is a huge bonus.  January is usually dry & cold.  February is the usual timeframe for Middle & West TN to receive snow. Anything in January is a 50/50 shot.  Crazy to think higher odds for here are in February. So it’s warming up some, which I for one hope it hangs around till day after Christmas.  That way I don’t freeze taking down the outside decorations. 

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

There is winners & losers in any pattern as we all know.  Even with the Chinook here in TN it’s been a cold December so far.  At least it’s felt & looked on some days like a wintry Christmas.  I think I saw where Chicago was off to a great start for snow?  Maybe it was the snowiest in some time?  Even ND has had a lot of snow.  The pattern will change, and there will be winners & losers again with the reshuffle. I just think many have forgotten winter has officially not even started for most.  We’ve been cold enough so far in December to actually have snow showers & dustings for many.  Anytime you get snow in December is a huge bonus.  January is usually dry & cold.  February is the usual timeframe for Middle & West TN to receive snow. Anything in January is a 50/50 shot.  Crazy to think higher odds for here are in February. So it’s warming up some, which I for one hope it hangs around till day after Christmas.  That way I don’t freeze taking down the outside decorations. 

Here in jackson we haven't seen any snow or ice yet. I hated thar we had too much nw flow, but that's how it is sometimes. Hoping mother nature will throw a little winter weather sometime in the next few months

[John1122]

The ridge/trough orientation has just sucked for basically the entire forum. Especially the west side. It's been cold and mostly dry. We got clipped by a couple of clippers in the East.

If the ridge had been oriented into a +PNA configuration, those clippers that buried the Midwest to Virginia would have been rolling across Tennessee. Northern Kentucky has gotten hit a lot. Louisville Kentucky already has about a foot in the  first 15 days of met winter. With a +PNA that would have had that active northern stream, which is common in La Nina, over our forum area. 

[Golf757075]

41 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ridge/trough orientation has just sucked for basically the entire forum. Especially the west side. It's been cold and mostly dry. We got clipped by a couple of clippers in the East.

If the ridge had been oriented into a +PNA configuration, those clippers that buried the Midwest to Virginia would have been rolling across Tennessee. Northern Kentucky has gotten hit a lot. Louisville Kentucky already has about a foot in the  first 15 days of met winter. With a +PNA that would have had that active northern stream, which is common in La Nina, over our forum area. 

We haven't had a clipper in my area in a long time. Many years. 

[John1122]

The Euro bombs Northern half of NC and most of Virginia with a monster New Years snow, due to a clipper that rains on us and goes full Miller B on them, after it develops off the coast it spins in place giving them a mega storm. The GFS looks like it may have been loading up to send something our way by the 3rd. Too far out to take seriously of course, but possibly a sign that the NAO is working a bit and use getting scraps while east of the Apps would fit in with the pattern we've seen as far as precip goes.