MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MUWX]

20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

HRRR is starting to show dry air issues for most the region for round 2 tonight... I know the fat lady hasnt sung yet but starting to look like an absolutely epic bust. 

Hard to fathom how unlucky this area is when it comes to winter weather. Springfield has cut their totals, yet again. 

[rockchalk83]

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning. 

[RocketWX]

10 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning. 

Agreed. Radar is also showing probably the healthiest band of snow up to this point, for the majority of the Wichita area moving in now, when just yesterday it looked completely dry on the models at this time. The first wave absolutely was underwhelming, but maybe we get lucky on round 2. 

[lookingnorth]

It seems Norman has been in a dry slot most of today, and the HRRR shows that continuing this evening into tonight. Hopefully that winds up not being the case.

[MUWX]

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point. 

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point. 

I will say, the HRRR has been absolute trash this whole time. 

[MUWX]

4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I will say, the HRRR has been absolute trash this whole time. 

It pretty much nailed it here last night with us never being able to saturate but could have been a broken clock situation. 

[The Waterboy]

The 18 and 19z HRRR fill in nicely around 03z (10 pm).  What am I missing on the posts about a lot of dry air?  

[MUWX]

6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

The 18 and 19z HRRR fill in nicely around 03z (10 pm).  What am I missing on the posts about a lot of dry air?  

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days. 

[The Waterboy]

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days. 

That makes sense.  I’m starting to get more nervous and frustrated.  Unfortunately we are fully at the mercy of Mother Nature.  And often times she’s not very good to us around here.  

[stormdragonwx]

If it tells you anything I am already looking to next weekends system... if it holds. lol We are barely past 4" since my morning report.
Looking at how the short range data is trending drier, my final forecast is 7" total for Fayetteville. If we are lucky. What a joke compared to 24 hours ago.

[MUWX]

8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

That makes sense.  I’m starting to get more nervous and frustrated.  Unfortunately we are fully at the mercy of Mother Nature.  And often times she’s not very good to us around here.  

I’m just hoping we hit 6”. Second huge let down in 2 years.

[JoMo]

The clown maps are almost always going to be wrong. They are fun to look at but I can't recall the last time they've been right. I was more shocked at how wrong the 10:1 maps have been/continue to be. I was expecting 6" from the start but I'm not even sure that's going to happen now. This was always going to be a system with heavier bands of snow and an area of lighter snow outside of the bands, but the QPF was overdone outside of the expected bands. 

[stormdragonwx]

TSA is being way too optimistic trying to salvage their forecast. I think they are just looking at the GFS which is way overdone.

[The Waterboy]

Bentonville/most of Benton County is under a heavier band on the radar right now, yet it’s barely spitting flurries.  That makes zero sense whatsoever.  Even when we get a decent band it’s a big nada.  
 

Edit: That’s because it’s sleet pellets.  Ugh…

[schoeppeya]

48 minutes ago, MUWX said:

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days. 

Yeah that image the HRRR is showing at max .5 inch an hour rates for a couple hours... never truly get up into snow+ on the HRRR for all of round 2. The 3k nam and GFS still show hope so we will see, im leaning dry air wins at this point. 

ETA: I still dont think the HRRR is initializing the current convection well, maybe something to note. 3k nam was way closer to actual radar.

[MUWX]

SGFs Afternoon AFD provided exactly zero insight into how this might evolve. Really poor job by them this week. 

[Doramo]

Ozark County, Mo.   Well the first Snow/Ice "Storm"?   we got almost an inch . The second Snow/ice "Storm?" has began . We've got nearly one and a half inches on the ground now . It started sleeting about 3:30pm and is still sleeting here currently. I surely hope it changes over to all snow soon .  

[stormdragonwx]

lol now its sleeting here at my house. What a joke.

[MUWX]

Just shoveled 75% of my driveway. Very cold. I’d guess 2 to possibly 3 inches. Super light and fluffy snow. Bring on wave 2.

[MoWeatherguy]

Wasting a lot of precip on this crazy sleet.  All sleet here since mid-afternoon.  SMH 

[Doramo]

It's still sleeting here with an ocasional snow flakes 

[MUWX]

I’m not really sure what to make of radar right now. There is a pretty big hole in the precip shield right down 44 in Oklahoma. 

[MoWeatherguy]

For you folks with more met knowledge out there, where is this warm nose located?  3000 ft? 4000? Where can I see a map of that?  Is it 750 MB?

[schoeppeya]

16 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I’m not really sure what to make of radar right now. There is a pretty big hole in the precip shield right down 44 in Oklahoma. 

Dry air pockets everywhere and the precip shield back into Texas is decreasing in coverage and intensity not increasing. Becoming less and less optimistic that wave 2 is going to perform let alone over perform. 

[lookingnorth]

18 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

For you folks with more met knowledge out there, where is this warm nose located?  3000 ft? 4000? Where can I see a map of that?  Is it 750 MB?

I don't know a good place to see a map of that, but you can see the recently launched (Jan 25 00Z) soundings here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

It looks like the warm nose is around 750 mb or 6000 ft.

You can see estimated winter skew-T maps here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

[MoWeatherguy]

Thanks, all.

[stormdragonwx]

6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Dry air pockets everywhere and the precip shield back into Texas is decreasing in coverage and intensity not increasing. Becoming less and less optimistic that wave 2 is going to perform let alone over perform. 

Yeah I am totally over this storm. Looks like it's gonna stay sleet with an incoming dry slot. 

[schoeppeya]

Just now, stormdragonwx said:

Yeah I am totally over this storm. Looks like it's gonna stay sleet with an incoming dry slot. 

Looking around at current storm reports it does look like a lot of areas performed within expectations for round 1 with a lot of 5-6" reports both north and south of Tulsa... just specifically my area (Jenks/Bixby) up 44 into missouri are the low end spots with a lot of 2 inch reports. 

[MoWeatherguy]

Anybody else see this from NWS TUL?  Sounds like this might continue to be a sleet parade south of I 44 most of the night.

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 805 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Analysis of water vapor imagery reveals a robust upper level low
entering Texas this evening. The GLM shows numerous cloud flashes in
the convection wrapping around this low, which will later eject
northeastward into the forecast area as its absorbed into the main
upper level trough.

In the meantime, confluent mid level flow at 700 hPa is supporting
frontogenesis to the west of the forecast area. Widespread upper
level diffluence and increase potential vorticity advection is also
noted. Cooling cloud tops and expanding precipitation within the
frontogenetical zone are already occurring. Meanwhile, fairly deep
moisture continues to stream into the area from the south ahead of
the upper level low.

These factors should support a consolidation of the numerous showers
into a broad precipitation shield with embedded areas of convection.
Widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation will develop
through the early overnight hours before gradually diminishing
during the day Sunday. Snow will be favored along the I-44 corridor,
with a mixture of snow and sleet down to just south of the I-44
corridor, and sleet to the south of there. Total snow and sleet will
be highly variable but significant. The hardest hit areas could see
up to 10 inches of snow or 2 inches of sleet, though most will see
somewhat lower totals.