MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MUWX]

20 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

HRRR is starting to show dry air issues for most the region for round 2 tonight... I know the fat lady hasnt sung yet but starting to look like an absolutely epic bust. 

Hard to fathom how unlucky this area is when it comes to winter weather. Springfield has cut their totals, yet again. 

[rockchalk83]

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning. 

[RocketWX]

10 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Farther west in SC KS, the snow has persisted most of the day, when models had shown a period of dryness. Call me crazy, but I think that bodes well for us when the main energy emerges later this evening and into Sunday morning. 

Agreed. Radar is also showing probably the healthiest band of snow up to this point, for the majority of the Wichita area moving in now, when just yesterday it looked completely dry on the models at this time. The first wave absolutely was underwhelming, but maybe we get lucky on round 2. 

[lookingnorth]

It seems Norman has been in a dry slot most of today, and the HRRR shows that continuing this evening into tonight. Hopefully that winds up not being the case.

[MUWX]

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point. 

[rockchalk83]

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point. 

I will say, the HRRR has been absolute trash this whole time. 

[MUWX]

4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I will say, the HRRR has been absolute trash this whole time. 

It pretty much nailed it here last night with us never being able to saturate but could have been a broken clock situation. 

[The Waterboy]

The 18 and 19z HRRR fill in nicely around 03z (10 pm).  What am I missing on the posts about a lot of dry air?  

[MUWX]

6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

The 18 and 19z HRRR fill in nicely around 03z (10 pm).  What am I missing on the posts about a lot of dry air?  

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days. 

[The Waterboy]

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

It’s just not really the heavy snow that Mets have been hyping up. Dry air is probably not the right term, but it’s also not what’s been advertised for days. 

That makes sense.  I’m starting to get more nervous and frustrated.  Unfortunately we are fully at the mercy of Mother Nature.  And often times she’s not very good to us around here.  

[stormdragonwx]

If it tells you anything I am already looking to next weekends system... if it holds. lol We are barely past 4" since my morning report.