MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

12 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run. 

Nice looking run, though.  I'll take it.

[stormdragonwx]

00z ICON is now clobbering the 412/US 60 corridor. Looks to not end till late Sunday night.

00z NAM is pretty insane too but this is only at 84 hours out and still snowing.

00z Canadian is probably more realistic but still impressive. Still snowing on this run too.

[NWAflizzard]

My goodness at the 00z GFS. Just hammers northwest Arkansas. 

[JoMo]

And we're back north on the 00z GFS after that weird 18z run. Nice 2 feet of snow in NW Arkansas. 

[StormChazer]

GFS brings the second wave north again this run.

[MoWeatherguy]

Whether these monster totals happen or not I can honestly say I've never seen amounts this large forecasted for this area.  Been really fun to watch and track. 

[schoeppeya]

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

[The Waterboy]

GFS just said Hold my beer…

[MUWX]

Warnings going up now. Norman is the first to pull the trigger. 

[The Waterboy]

7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

I was just thinking the same thing.  The NAM has spit out some stupid stuff throughout the years but this is a whole new level.  A foot in many places seems quite feasible.  

[stormdragonwx]

26 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

Yes I know I have come off pretty cynical on this board during this event for this very reason. Especially after that one big storm that busted due to excessive dry air that had trolled us with a foot till the day of a few years back. Part of me is still waiting for Lucy to pull the football.

Also locally for us NWA folks they are forecasting a HIGH of 16 on Sat/Sun. That's at least 20:1 snow ratios aka Mountain Powder Snow.

[MUWX]

23 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yes I know I have come off pretty cynical on this board during this event for this very reason. Especially after that one big storm that busted due to excessive dry air that had trolled us with a foot till the day of a few years back. Part of me is still waiting for Lucy to pull the football.

Also locally for us NWA folks they are forecasting a HIGH of 16 on Sat/Sun. That's at least 20:1 snow ratios aka Mountain Powder Snow.

I’m not sure NWA sees 20-1 but 15-1 is probably attainable down there. 

[lookingnorth]

The latest run of the NAM does look a bit drier than previous runs across much of Oklahoma.

[JoMo]

00z ECMWF AI Ensemble ended up a bit farther north with snow precip max in NW AR. 

[rockchalk83]

Good morning! The GFS took all of the dropsonde data from the Hurricane Hunters and finally caught up to the Euro. 

GFS AI & Ensembles also support liquid equivalent moisture over 1/2 inch for most of the area. 

Here is the 06z operational output:

Here is the 06z NAM, too. 

[stormdragonwx]

NAM seems to have a lot more WAA and kicks the system out sooner. GFS and Canadian do not. Have to see what Euro does.

06z ICON is still pretty aggressive on totals with a 1.2" QPF over my area. GFS is the most generous on QPF with 2.5" over the AR River Valley.

[JoMo]

Springfield going with a 12:1 to 14:1 SLR. Also, that's quite a range there fellas, 

Quote

Thus, the message is largely to
expect at least 2-4 inches, but prepare for upwards of 10-12+
inches.

 

[ouamber]

Doesn't anyone have the 6z Euro this morning?

[rockchalk83]

18 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Springfield going with a 12:1 to 14:1 SLR. Also, that's quite a range there fellas, 

 

That's a CYA forecast if I've ever seen one....

[rockchalk83]

4 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Doesn't anyone have the 6z Euro this morning?

[stormdragonwx]

Quite interesting how there are three distinct heavy bands setting up across the entire state of Oklahoma like that.

[NWAflizzard]

Tulsa upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings! 6-12 inches north of I40. Blowing and drifting snow possible. 

[The Ole Bucket]

NWS STL hedging quite a bit

 

[NWAflizzard]

5 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

NWS STL hedging quite a bit

 

The 2-9 inch range in Paducah seems a little vague. 

[The Ole Bucket]

I imagine they are concerned with mixing to the south and east, but from Cape on north there isn't gonna be any mixing so the disparity is crazy.

[MUWX]

If the NAM is right, a lot of people are going to have issues with the warm nose that weren't expecting too. 

[JoMo]

Time for another wild run of the 12z NAM. Round 1 has a strong WAA push that generates a lot of precip and it's slower to exit, making some areas of extreme NW AR and NE OK have 12" of snow with just the first round. Southern MO, NW AR, NE OK all get over a foot this run. 

[The Waterboy]

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

If the NAM is right, a lot of people are going to have issues with the warm nose that weren't expecting too. 

If the NAM is right…

Sorry, couldn’t resist.   At least the NAM is the only model showing that much of a warm nose.  I think most of us here just need it to stay south of 412. 

 

[StormChazer]

12Z NAM

 

[MoWeatherguy]

Those are hefty totals starting to get a bit concerned about sleet robbing some of that, though.