MO/KS/AR/OK 2025-2026 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

12 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Every NAM run is like a wild adventure because it's so different from the previous run. 

Nice looking run, though.  I'll take it.

[stormdragonwx]

00z ICON is now clobbering the 412/US 60 corridor. Looks to not end till late Sunday night.

00z NAM is pretty insane too but this is only at 84 hours out and still snowing.

00z Canadian is probably more realistic but still impressive. Still snowing on this run too.

[NWAflizzard]

My goodness at the 00z GFS. Just hammers northwest Arkansas. 

[JoMo]

And we're back north on the 00z GFS after that weird 18z run. Nice 2 feet of snow in NW Arkansas. 

[StormChazer]

GFS brings the second wave north again this run.

[MoWeatherguy]

Whether these monster totals happen or not I can honestly say I've never seen amounts this large forecasted for this area.  Been really fun to watch and track. 

[schoeppeya]

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

[The Waterboy]

GFS just said Hold my beer…

[MUWX]

Warnings going up now. Norman is the first to pull the trigger. 

[The Waterboy]

7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

I was just thinking the same thing.  The NAM has spit out some stupid stuff throughout the years but this is a whole new level.  A foot in many places seems quite feasible.  

[stormdragonwx]

26 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

We have had so many of these storms bust throughout the years I am trying to temper my excitement but cant lie, models holding serve and even increasing amounts at 48 hours with the new data is starting to make me believe 12-18 inches is possible in Tulsa. 

Yes I know I have come off pretty cynical on this board during this event for this very reason. Especially after that one big storm that busted due to excessive dry air that had trolled us with a foot till the day of a few years back. Part of me is still waiting for Lucy to pull the football.

Also locally for us NWA folks they are forecasting a HIGH of 16 on Sat/Sun. That's at least 20:1 snow ratios aka Mountain Powder Snow.

[MUWX]

23 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yes I know I have come off pretty cynical on this board during this event for this very reason. Especially after that one big storm that busted due to excessive dry air that had trolled us with a foot till the day of a few years back. Part of me is still waiting for Lucy to pull the football.

Also locally for us NWA folks they are forecasting a HIGH of 16 on Sat/Sun. That's at least 20:1 snow ratios aka Mountain Powder Snow.

I’m not sure NWA sees 20-1 but 15-1 is probably attainable down there. 

[lookingnorth]

The latest run of the NAM does look a bit drier than previous runs across much of Oklahoma.

[JoMo]

00z ECMWF AI Ensemble ended up a bit farther north with snow precip max in NW AR.