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November 2025 OBS Discussion


wdrag
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18 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

 

I assume that future AI models will be excellent, being able to correct biases, and errors from the last run if initial 6 hour forecast(s) don't verify.  Anyways, I'm optimistic (for once)...

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17 hours ago, Sundog said:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

eps_z500a_namer_61.thumb.png.4362e123e52460bbc3c0423822519b5b.png

Not sure.  Stratospheric warming is supposed to bring down colder air, although I'm not sure this exact scenario as pictured will materialize...

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