dailylurker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The GFS made a big jump west and crushes the entire area with heavy rain and storm force winds on the bay. I figured we can talk about the storm here since it's no longer long range. LFG! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS: Sunday potentially a real windy, raw, day. A lot more beach erosion as well. 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z ICON also has widespread heavy rain east of the mountains. 27 minutes ago, yoda said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This will be impactful up and down the east coast. Although it may try to start with some hybrid/tropical characteristics, by the time it’s impacting us it’s a potent nor’easter. Impacts all the same with rain, wind, and possibly significant coastal flooding. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Fwiw, 12z UKIE is a swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This is the new CMC precip maps... the old ones no longer work https://eccc-msc.github.io/msc-animet/?layers=GDPS.ETA_PN;0.75;0;1;0;1,GDPS.DIAG_NW_PT3H;0.75;0;1;0;1&extent=-11358064,1081878,-7522829,7804193&overlays=Boundaries&range=80,26,l,PT3H Pretty cool you can zoom way in too on the new precip maps as well 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12z CMC very rainy too... retrograde back toward us on Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The 12z GFS is a hit--and a good one at that. Good signs so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GEFS ensemble is probably the most west it's been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB 12Z GEFS individual members: not locked into a heavy rain event west of 95 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18 minutes ago, dailylurker said: The GFS made a big jump west and crushes the entire area with heavy rain and storm force winds on the bay. I figured we can talk about the storm here since it's no longer long range. LFG! This is what I was on to days ago in the October thread and the models had nothing about it until now. I still expect 20-30 sustained gusting to 40 and 1-3 around DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro AI ensemble less aggressive with it, but still averages almost an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: Euro AI ensemble less aggressive with it, but still averages almost an inch. Note: we are waiting for 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I will wait till tomorrow to worry about this one. My rule this winter is not to give an F till about 48-60hrs out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I will wait till tomorrow to worry about this one. My rule this winter is not to give an F till about 48-60hrs out. I say that every winter. An hour later and I'm drooling over a day 12 unicorn lol 2 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB 12Z RRFS: Good test for the new short range; let's see how it does at range. It forecasts a beast. Note ends at 2pm Sunday; still plenty of rain to go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Seems like the 12z suite is hinting at the Midwest short wave coming in faster, and further southwest. This appears to enable a more complete capture of the coastal feature. Something to watch perhaps? I know @WxUSAF and I were discussing this at Lisbon the other day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Biggest run of the Euro this season coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Biggest run of the Euro this season coming up. It is coming out as slow as my grass seed is germinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I will wait till tomorrow to worry about this one. My rule this winter is not to give an F till about 48-60hrs out. You are wise to use this rule... Why are you here again? The s/w coming in and how far west that dives in is the key to this. The more west the more the track sticks to the coastline. Some of the high-res guidance (NSSL-MPAS, RRFS) are back into the OH/IN border. Little bit of a global vs high-res discrepancy starting to emerge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 37 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: This is what I was on to days ago in the October thread and the models had nothing about it until now. That isn't even remotely true. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: You are wise to use this rule... Why are you here again? The s/w coming in and how far west that dives in is the key to this. The more west the more the track sticks to the coastline. Some of the high-res guidance (NSSL-MPAS, RRFS) are back into the OH/IN border. Little bit of a global vs high-res discrepancy starting to emerge. Ukie takes it over toward Buffalo and it looks like the sloppy phase Euro that skips us mostly except for light showers Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Didn't the EURO do a horrible job with the last coastal? So far it is meh at 12Z. Nothing like GFS thru hour 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Dr. No continues to say no. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, high risk said: That isn't even remotely true. You best be sure before you say someone is lying chump. On Monday I mentioned the storminess and had several discredits of it and it’s really only today that models have started showing storminess with NWS first introducing chance if showers last night. You need to keep your irksome of my early and good observation to yourself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, high risk said: That isn't even remotely true. Bullshit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z CMC/GEM is decent for I-95 and points east, sharp cutoff for the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB 12Z EURO, no real phasing, strung out progressive mess compared to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Looks like we have the book ends for this event. GFS/hi-res scenario where it's a quick capture and more dynamic event down our way. Euro scenario where it's a late, disjointed phase and we get scraps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO, no real phasing, strung out progressive ness compared to GFS. the exact opposite of Feb 19-20. The GFS won that time . Maybe it can win again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like we have the book ends for this event. GFS/hi-res scenario where it's a quick capture and more dynamic event down our way. Euro scenario where it's a late, disjointed phase and we get scraps. good thing about this is that worst-case still gives us some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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