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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, it looks like JFK has their first 30s before NYC does by a few days.

I don't know what the criteria is for landlords in the 5 boroughs to have to turn on their heating but when I lived in Brooklyn the heat had to be on by November 1st.

After I moved to Long Island I remember seeing in the news that had changed to the first high temperature below 55 and the first low temperature below 40 on or after October 1.

I wonder what the requirements are now?

 

Here are the rules for NYC:

https://www.nyc.gov/site/mayorspeu/resources/heat-season-resources.page#:~:text=Heat Season (October 1st - May 31st),least 62°F%2C regardless of the outdoor temperature.

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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1977: Early snow in the Washington Baltimore, MD area and 18 inches in PA. (Ref. Oct. Snowfall History by Herb Close)

 

weird how come no record of snow in our area from this storm?

 


EWR: 90 (1938)
NYC: 90 (1938)

our latest 90 on record, Tony?

 

 

Yes came close in Oct 22 (1979) with upper 80s.  

 

For 1977 seemed to be colder S/W of us and into PA

 

NYC 1977

 

59 42 0.42 0.0
65 51 0.00 0.0
54 40 0.10 0.0
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19 hours ago, Sundog said:

Well I find this kind of absurd. If there is a problem with the data why isn't it adjusted at the monthly level and then posted online?

You know what's interesting, I just checked and there is no missing data at all from Central Park for those 30 Octobers, and it certainly hasn't changed location during that time, which were the two main reasons given for doing temperature adjustments. 

And did it have instrument issues that they needed a fix that resulted in a whopping 0.4 adjustment?

I find it very silly. 

 

I wonder if you did that same exercise for other stations what it would show

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30 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Yes came close in Oct 22 (1979) with upper 80s.  

 

For 1977 seemed to be colder S/W of us and into PA

 

NYC 1977

 

59 42 0.42 0.0
65 51 0.00 0.0
54 40 0.10 0.0

wow Oct 1979 had snow earlier in the month didn't it, Tony?

from snow to upper 80s?

 

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

Bridgeport: Raw: 56.0; Normal: 56.4

Islip: Raw: 55.7; Normal: 55.7

JFK: Raw: 57.8; Normal: 57.2

LGA: Raw: 59.3; Normal: 59.6

Newark: Raw: 57.8; Normal: 57.5

It's kind of crazy that they don't explain exactly why and how the numbers were adjusted per station. 

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the climate was warming faster than it is, but apparently that's not the case.

Our first high temperature in the 50s has barely budged Chris.

No wonder most people don't think climate change is a serious issue-- that will only change when months like December 2015 become the norm, and not just for December either.

 

Our climate is warming very quickly across all the seasons. But it’s an uneven process so that some months are warming faster than others. Most people that don’t follow the weather and climate as closely as we do tend to normalize the warmer climate and more extreme weather in only 2-7 years. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Our climate is warming very quickly across all the seasons. But it’s an uneven process so that some months are warming faster than others. Most people that don’t follow the weather and climate as closely as we do tend to normalize the warmer climate and more extreme weather in only 2-7 years. 

I wonder if the added cost with extreme weather will influence them or will they blame that on something else?

I thought October would be warming faster than it is, especially after October last year.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if the added cost with extreme weather will influence them or will they blame that on something else?

I thought October would be warming faster than it is, especially after October last year.

 

October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January.  May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade. 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is it similar to how snowfall amounts sometimes get adjusted after the fact, sometimes even months later?

 

 

AI's take 

 

NOAA/NWS don’t just use raw 30-year averages, but instead apply adjustments to make the normals consistent and reliable:

  • Data quality: Adjusts for missing days, station moves, or instrument changes.

  • Internal consistency: Daily values are forced to add up to monthly values, which raw averages rarely do.

  • Smoothing: Uses harmonic fits and scaling to avoid jagged, unrealistic daily swings.

That said, if a station has a perfectly complete and consistent record with no gaps or biases, these adjustments may not add value and could actually move the result slightly away from the “true” raw average.
 

Yes, the NOAA/NWS normals process applies to both rainfall and snowfall (precipitation as a whole), not just temperature.

Rainfall (liquid precipitation): Daily totals are averaged and then smoothed/adjusted so that when added together, they equal the official monthly precipitation normal.

Snowfall: Treated separately as part of the “precipitation normals” family. Daily snowfall normals are computed in a similar way, using 30-year station records, and then adjusted to ensure consistency with monthly totals.

Snow depth: NOAA also produces normals for snow depth (how much is on the ground), which requires additional handling since it depends on accumulation and melt, not just daily totals.

So , rainfall, snowfall, and snow depth all get the same kind of adjustment and smoothing treatment as temperature, ensuring consistency and avoiding jagged raw averages.

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if the added cost with extreme weather will influence them or will they blame that on something else?

I thought October would be warming faster than it is, especially after October last year.

 

 

2022 the oasis of cool below normal October of the last 10 Octpbers back to 2016.

 

EWR Oct Dep
 

2025:  +2.5 (through 10/17)
2024: +4.0
2023: +4.5
2022:  - 1.6
2021: +6.9
2020:  +0.6
2019: + 2.9
2018:  -0.1
2017: +6.4
2016: +1.4

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2022 the oasis of cool below normal October of the last 10 Octpbers back to 2016.

 

EWR Oct Dep
 

2025:  +2.5 (through 10/17)
2024: +4.0
2023: +4.5
2022:  - 1.6
2021: +6.9
2020:  +0.6
2019: + 2.9
2018:  -0.1
2017: +6.4
2016: +1.4

wow no connection between October and the following winter.... look at 2017 at +6.4 and we had one of our best winters after that ! October 2021 +6.9 and the following winter was pretty good too !

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January.  May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade. 

But how is it that the first high temperature below 60 has barely moved Chris?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow no connection between October and the following winter.... look at 2017 at +6.4 and we had one of our best winters after that ! October 2021 +6.9 and the following winter was pretty good too !

 

21-22 not good. 

You mean 20-21. 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

damn I thought our stretch of bad winters started with 22-23, 23-24, 24-25

so we've had 4 bad winters in a row and not 3?

 

Yup, all crap to varying degrees. 

Only @FPizz has had a good winter since then when a 300 foot wide band of snow dropped 20 inches over his house. 

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21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

We've had crap stretches for snow in March before but taking a quick glance back, this is the worst one on record. 

March during the 2020s has been 3.8° warmer than the 2010s at a spot like NYC. So it has been too warm for much snow in March this decade. It’s more like an early spring month now than a late winter one we had during the 2010s. 

March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 46.5 46.5
2025 46.9 46.9
2024 48.1 48.1
2023 44.6 44.6
2022 45.3 45.3
2021 45.8 45.8
2020 48.0 48.0


 

March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 42.7 42.7
2019 41.7 41.7
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 39.2 39.2
2016 48.9 48.9
2015 38.1 38.1
2014 37.7 37.7
2013 40.1 40.1
2012 50.9 50.9
2011 42.3 42.3
2010 48.2 48.2

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.1 0.1
2025 0.0 0.0
2024 T T
2023 0.1 0.1
2022 0.4 0.4
2021 T T
2020 T T

 

March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 6.0 6.0
2019 10.4 10.4
2018 11.6 11.6
2017 9.7 9.7
2016 0.9 0.9
2015 18.6 18.6
2014 0.1 0.1
2013 7.3 7.3
2012 0.0 0.0
2011 1.0 1.0
2010 T T
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I bet this is a combination of the Hunga Tonga water vapor injection coupled with international shipping cleaning up aerosol pollution accelerating/demasking the general warming trend of the 2020s. 

Did we really need to clean up shipping? For gods sake this couldn't come at a worse time. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Yup, all crap to varying degrees. 

Only @FPizz has had a good winter since then when a 300 foot wide band of snow dropped 20 inches over his house. 

It was like 20 miles wide haha.  Snow storms always have winners and losers.  Sometimes you guys get a nice coastal where i get shafted.  Storm tracks always determine the localized winners and losers here.  But, that was one of the best snow surprises of my life.

Screenshot_20251017_203858_Photos.jpg

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I’ll be honest, I don’t know what it is, but ever since 2019, we’ve only had 1 good winter here in NYC and we’ve had 3 near shut outs practically. I won’t try to speculate what it is. Especially when it comes to March being snowless since 2020. My understanding of weather is better than it used to be but long term climate is still pretty niche and hard to follow along with. But whatever it is, I think we all know deep down that it’s not going to get much better. I think the “winters” we’ve been having this decade is the new normal, and most good snow seasons are a thing of the past. It’s very hard to deny it. KUs are pretty much a thing of the past and with a warmer winter, what would normally be small snow events in the past are now marginal cold rain events for most of us. It’s easy to bet on a warm and less than average snowy winter at this point. 

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