October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

From 9/1/24. My total is 34.41", that's when drought really started... Aug  though was quite wet here with over 6" of rain .

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

[ForestHillWx]

Raining now; didn’t expect it, but will take it (aside from it being my 5 year olds outdoor bday). 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I was in Saranac, Placid and the ORDA resorts for the World Cup races 10/3-5. It hit 88° at Mt Van Hoevenberg on Sunday. 

ideal weather when you were there

dusty too?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

BTW that total is about a -20" departure over the almost 13.5 month period!

it balances out all the wet years we've been having

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Raining now; didn’t expect it, but will take it (aside from it being my 5 year olds outdoor bday). 

it rained here a lot last night and early this morning, right now it looks like the sun is trying to come out here it's very bright lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

I like somewhat dry, it's been way too wet for too way many years.  I like around 40 inches of rain (38-42 is okay).

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

I'm looking forward to that spectacular sunshine coming back starting Wednesday.  I see it's going to be very cool, but my house is like a greenhouse, if there's a lot of sunshine it stays very warm during the day.

 

[steve392]

Wasn't expecting the day to be a total dud with this rain.  

[LibertyBell]

Someone was asking about the star burst the other night during the super moon, it was the Draconids, they are unique because they peak at  a very reasonable time in the early evening.

 

The Draconid meteor shower in October 2025 is unfortunately not ideal for viewing due to the recent supermoon, which peaked around October 7th and created bright moonlight that washes out fainter meteors. The shower peaked on October 8th, but the extra-bright light from the full moon made it difficult to see many shooting stars, though some might still be visible, especially brighter ones.  

 

What to know about the Draconids and the supermoon

• Supermoon and Draconids overlapped: 

  The Draconid meteor shower ran from October 6th to 10th, peaking on October 8th, the same week as the October full supermoon, which occurred on October 7th. 

   
• Moonlight hinders viewing: 

  Supermoons are brighter and appear larger than a typical full moon, and this extra brightness creates significant light pollution that makes it hard to see fainter meteors. 

   
• Best time to look: 

  The Draconids are unique because they are best viewed in the early evening, right after dusk, as their radiant point is high in the sky at that time. This is in contrast to most other meteor showers, which are best seen after midnight. 

   
• What you can still see: 

  While the bright moon made the shower less impressive, you may still have a chance to see the brighter, more dramatic meteors, especially if you find a location with minimal light pollution and look for meteors away from the moon's glare. 

[donsutherland1]

Steadier periods of rain will arrive tomorrow as a developing coastal nor'easter begins to affect the region. The wind will also pick up as the day wears on. Highs should reach the lower 60s tomorrow.

The nor'easter will bring periods of rain and strong winds to the region into Tuesday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely across the region with locally higher amounts. The wind will gust to 40 mph in New York City and its nearby suburbs, and 60 mph along portions of the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely.

Following the nor'easter, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region during the middle of next week. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +10.31 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.286 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ideal weather when you were there

dusty too?

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

I was going to ask you if you saw the Northern Lights up there but I guess not with all that dust? Or is that something that only happens during the races with dust being kicked up?

 

[gravitylover]

? Duh, yeah only when it's stirred up. Apparently the lights were popping but the moon was crazy bright. I don't have the patience to sit there running a long exposure shot to get a pic of something I can't actually see.

[SACRUS]

62 / 52 24 hours into the C+C (Cutoff / Coastal) cloud factory and 0.09 of rain.   Much discussed long running storm to dump 1 - 3 inches of rain - more east.  Clear out by later Tue evening.  Dry much cooler Wed - Thu, perhaps some frost inland.  Much warmer by next weekend and 70s look to return one or both weekend days 10/18-19.  Overall near / slightly abovr normal beyond there.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1954)
NYC: 86 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1954)
JFK: 83 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1996)
NYC: 35 (1876)
LGA: 41 (1964)
JFK: 38 (1996)



Historical: 

 

1836 - A third early season storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Bridgewater NY received 18 inches, a foot of snow fell at Madison NY, and for the third time all the mountains of the northeastern U.S. were whitened. (David Ludlum)

1906: Charlotte, NC recorded its' earliest freezing temperature with a morning low of 31°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1918 - Forest fires ravaged parts of Minnesota from the Duluth area northeastward, claiming the lives of 600 persons. Smoke with a smell of burnt wood spread to Albany NY and Washington D.C. in 24 hours. Smoke was noted at Charleston SC on the 14th, and by the 15th was reported in northeastern Texas. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1918: On October 10, 1918, two men working near a railroad siding northwest of Cloquet, Minnesota, saw a passenger train pass by the siding, and soon after, that discovered a fire burning through grass and piles of wood. The fire could not be contained, and by October 12, fires had spread through northern Minnesota. At least 450 lives were lost, and 52,000 people were injured or displaced, 38 communities were destroyed, 250,000 acres were burned.

1942:  A tropical storm moved in across eastern North Carolina into central Virginia on October 12, 1942. Torrential rains fell from October 12-16 in Northern Virginia and Maryland. It caused the worst river flood in the history of the Virginia and DC. The hardest hit was the mid portion of the Rappahannock River and the Shenandoah River. On the Rappahannock, damages came to $2.5 million (1942 dollars) and most of that was in Fredericksburg, where the river rose to 41 feet (27 feet above flood stage). On the Shenandoah River, a stage of almost 50 feet was reached at Riverton on the morning of the 16th. Flood stage is 22 feet and it broke the record set by the March 1936 flood by 12 feet! The Potomac at Washington reached 17.6 feet (flood stage is seven feet). Areas of Alexandria and Arlington were seriously flooded. The Anacostia River flooded as well as 6 feet of water was across the boulevard in Bladensburg. Ten to 12 inches of rain fell from Fredericksburg to Warrenton. Seventeen inches were recorded in Front Royal. In Shenandoah National Park, along Skyline Drive, rainfall totals reached 18 to 19 inches. To the south, Nelson County received 16 inches. Another maxima of 12 to 16 inches fell from near Paw Paw, West Virginia south along the Shenandoah Mountains to west of Harrisonburg. About 6 to 8 inches fell over much of central and western Maryland. Highways and bridges were washed away across the region. Over 1,300 people were left homeless in Albemarle, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Warren Counties in Virginia. About 750 people were displaced from homes in Maryland. Hundreds of homes were flooded in Georgetown. Miraculously, only one person died. Transportation was interrupted for three days. Severe damage occurred to crops: peanuts, cotton, sweet potatoes, soybeans, shocked corn and late hay. The heavy rains caused a million bushels of apples to drop before they were picked. 1942 Storm Track - Underground Weather

1962 - The "Columbus Day Big Blow" occurred in the Pacific Northwest. It was probably the most damaging windstorm of record west of the Cascade Mountains. Winds reached hurricane force, with gusts above 100 mph. More than 3.5 billion board feet of timber were blown down, and communications were severely disrupted due to downed power lines. The storm claimed 48 lives, and caused 210 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1950: Charlotte, NC recorded their latest 90° reading ever. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1954: Boston, Massachusetts had a maximum temperature of 90 °F the highest temperature for October. They also had 90 °F on October 7th 1963. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1962: The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was a Pacific Northwest windstorm that struck the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States. It is considered the benchmark of extratropical wind storms. The storm ranks among the most intense to strike the region since at least 1948, likely since the January 9, 1880 "Great Gale" and snowstorm. Click HERE for more information from the University of Washington.

 

1979: The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded occurs in the center of Typhoon Tip on this day. A fly reconnaissance mission recorded the low pressure of 870 hPa or 25.69 inHg. Typhoon Tip was the most extensive tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 1380 miles at its peak.

1981: Hurricane Norma crossed from the Pacific over Mexico and into Southwestern Texas. 25.00 inches of rain fell in the area around Gainesville and Bridgeport, TX. The elephant from the Gainesville Zoo reportedly survived the massive flooding by holding its trunk above the water. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - Floyd, the only hurricane to make landfall the entire season, moved across the Florida Keys. Floyd produced wind gusts to 59 mph at Duck Key, and up to nine inches of rain in southern Florida. Sixteen cities in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Mississippi Valley reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 27 degrees at Paducah KY, and 24 degrees at Rockford IL and Springfield IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 17 degrees. The town of Embarass MN reported a morning low of 8 degrees. Snow showers in the northeastern U.S. produced five inches at Corry PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Temperatures again warmed into the 80s in the Central Plains Region and the Middle Mississippi Valley, with 90s in the south central U.S. Six cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Fort Smith AR with a reading of 92 degrees. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley gusted to 61 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary)

2005: On this date through the 14th, on its way to setting a local record for the month, Central Park in New York City received 8.5 inches of rain over the 3-day period. 16.73 inches fell during October to eclipse a 102-year record. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

2006:  With 0.3 inches of snow falling at O'Hare International Airport, giving Chicago its earliest measurable snowfall. The previous earliest date was 10/18/1972 and in 1989.Snow Trivia for Chicago - NWS (Ref. WxDoctor)

2008: Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho from the 10th to the 12th:
A significant winter storm brings heavy snowfall to areas of Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho over three days. The city of Red Lodge, Montana records its highest 24-hour snowfall total with 42 inches of snow. Glasgow, Montana also sets a new October 12th record when 12.8 inches of snow falls. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[bluewave]

Continuation of the warm ups being more impressive than the cold downs across the area. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, gravitylover said:

? Duh, yeah only when it's stirred up. Apparently the lights were popping but the moon was crazy bright. I don't have the patience to sit there running a long exposure shot to get a pic of something I can't actually see.

 

lol I pictured a dust storm initially with a hot wind and dry hot conditions. That would be absolutely amazing to see so far north and so late in the season!

damn there was a star burst meteor shower too the Draconids, good timing being early in the evening rather than late at night and visible even with the full moon

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1954)
NYC: 86 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1954)
JFK: 83 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1996)
NYC: 35 (1876)
LGA: 41 (1964)
JFK: 38 (1996)



Historical: 

 

1836 - A third early season storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Bridgewater NY received 18 inches, a foot of snow fell at Madison NY, and for the third time all the mountains of the northeastern U.S. were whitened. (David Ludlum)

1906: Charlotte, NC recorded its' earliest freezing temperature with a morning low of 31°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1918 - Forest fires ravaged parts of Minnesota from the Duluth area northeastward, claiming the lives of 600 persons. Smoke with a smell of burnt wood spread to Albany NY and Washington D.C. in 24 hours. Smoke was noted at Charleston SC on the 14th, and by the 15th was reported in northeastern Texas. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1918: On October 10, 1918, two men working near a railroad siding northwest of Cloquet, Minnesota, saw a passenger train pass by the siding, and soon after, that discovered a fire burning through grass and piles of wood. The fire could not be contained, and by October 12, fires had spread through northern Minnesota. At least 450 lives were lost, and 52,000 people were injured or displaced, 38 communities were destroyed, 250,000 acres were burned.

1942:  A tropical storm moved in across eastern North Carolina into central Virginia on October 12, 1942. Torrential rains fell from October 12-16 in Northern Virginia and Maryland. It caused the worst river flood in the history of the Virginia and DC. The hardest hit was the mid portion of the Rappahannock River and the Shenandoah River. On the Rappahannock, damages came to $2.5 million (1942 dollars) and most of that was in Fredericksburg, where the river rose to 41 feet (27 feet above flood stage). On the Shenandoah River, a stage of almost 50 feet was reached at Riverton on the morning of the 16th. Flood stage is 22 feet and it broke the record set by the March 1936 flood by 12 feet! The Potomac at Washington reached 17.6 feet (flood stage is seven feet). Areas of Alexandria and Arlington were seriously flooded. The Anacostia River flooded as well as 6 feet of water was across the boulevard in Bladensburg. Ten to 12 inches of rain fell from Fredericksburg to Warrenton. Seventeen inches were recorded in Front Royal. In Shenandoah National Park, along Skyline Drive, rainfall totals reached 18 to 19 inches. To the south, Nelson County received 16 inches. Another maxima of 12 to 16 inches fell from near Paw Paw, West Virginia south along the Shenandoah Mountains to west of Harrisonburg. About 6 to 8 inches fell over much of central and western Maryland. Highways and bridges were washed away across the region. Over 1,300 people were left homeless in Albemarle, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Warren Counties in Virginia. About 750 people were displaced from homes in Maryland. Hundreds of homes were flooded in Georgetown. Miraculously, only one person died. Transportation was interrupted for three days. Severe damage occurred to crops: peanuts, cotton, sweet potatoes, soybeans, shocked corn and late hay. The heavy rains caused a million bushels of apples to drop before they were picked. 1942 Storm Track - Underground Weather

1962 - The "Columbus Day Big Blow" occurred in the Pacific Northwest. It was probably the most damaging windstorm of record west of the Cascade Mountains. Winds reached hurricane force, with gusts above 100 mph. More than 3.5 billion board feet of timber were blown down, and communications were severely disrupted due to downed power lines. The storm claimed 48 lives, and caused 210 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1950: Charlotte, NC recorded their latest 90° reading ever. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1954: Boston, Massachusetts had a maximum temperature of 90 °F the highest temperature for October. They also had 90 °F on October 7th 1963. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1962: The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was a Pacific Northwest windstorm that struck the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States. It is considered the benchmark of extratropical wind storms. The storm ranks among the most intense to strike the region since at least 1948, likely since the January 9, 1880 "Great Gale" and snowstorm. Click HERE for more information from the University of Washington.

 

1979: The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded occurs in the center of Typhoon Tip on this day. A fly reconnaissance mission recorded the low pressure of 870 hPa or 25.69 inHg. Typhoon Tip was the most extensive tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 1380 miles at its peak.

1981: Hurricane Norma crossed from the Pacific over Mexico and into Southwestern Texas. 25.00 inches of rain fell in the area around Gainesville and Bridgeport, TX. The elephant from the Gainesville Zoo reportedly survived the massive flooding by holding its trunk above the water. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

1987 - Floyd, the only hurricane to make landfall the entire season, moved across the Florida Keys. Floyd produced wind gusts to 59 mph at Duck Key, and up to nine inches of rain in southern Florida. Sixteen cities in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Mississippi Valley reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 27 degrees at Paducah KY, and 24 degrees at Rockford IL and Springfield IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 17 degrees. The town of Embarass MN reported a morning low of 8 degrees. Snow showers in the northeastern U.S. produced five inches at Corry PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Temperatures again warmed into the 80s in the Central Plains Region and the Middle Mississippi Valley, with 90s in the south central U.S. Six cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Fort Smith AR with a reading of 92 degrees. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley gusted to 61 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary)

2005: On this date through the 14th, on its way to setting a local record for the month, Central Park in New York City received 8.5 inches of rain over the 3-day period. 16.73 inches fell during October to eclipse a 102-year record. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

2006:  With 0.3 inches of snow falling at O'Hare International Airport, giving Chicago its earliest measurable snowfall. The previous earliest date was 10/18/1972 and in 1989.Snow Trivia for Chicago - NWS (Ref. WxDoctor)

2008: Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho from the 10th to the 12th:
A significant winter storm brings heavy snowfall to areas of Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho over three days. The city of Red Lodge, Montana records its highest 24-hour snowfall total with 42 inches of snow. Glasgow, Montana also sets a new October 12th record when 12.8 inches of snow falls. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2005: On this date through the 14th, on its way to setting a local record for the month, Central Park in New York City received 8.5 inches of rain over the 3-day period. 16.73 inches fell during October to eclipse a 102-year record. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

 

The heaviest rain actually fell to the east of the city with 7-8 straight days of rain and over 20 inches to 2 feet for the entire month!!

[donsutherland1]

While the New York City area waits as the nor'easter's rain spreads north and westward into the region, Phoenix has been having an incredibly wet day. It has seen hourly rainfall as high as 0.63" and has picked up 1.83" so far, today. Today is the fourth wettest October day on record there. The two-day figure of 2.53" is the second highest two-day amount on record. October records go back to 1895.