October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

From 9/1/24. My total is 34.41", that's when drought really started... Aug  though was quite wet here with over 6" of rain .

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

[ForestHillWx]

Raining now; didn’t expect it, but will take it (aside from it being my 5 year olds outdoor bday). 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I was in Saranac, Placid and the ORDA resorts for the World Cup races 10/3-5. It hit 88° at Mt Van Hoevenberg on Sunday. 

ideal weather when you were there

dusty too?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, doncat said:

BTW that total is about a -20" departure over the almost 13.5 month period!

it balances out all the wet years we've been having

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Raining now; didn’t expect it, but will take it (aside from it being my 5 year olds outdoor bday). 

it rained here a lot last night and early this morning, right now it looks like the sun is trying to come out here it's very bright lol

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

I like somewhat dry, it's been way too wet for too way many years.  I like around 40 inches of rain (38-42 is okay).

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All of the major reporting sites around New York City have seen less than 40" of rain since September 1, 2024. The 1"-3" for NYC/nearby suburbs and 2"-4" on Long Island/Jersey Shore should help, but drier conditions will likely resume following the nor'easter.

I'm looking forward to that spectacular sunshine coming back starting Wednesday.  I see it's going to be very cool, but my house is like a greenhouse, if there's a lot of sunshine it stays very warm during the day.

 

[steve392]

Wasn't expecting the day to be a total dud with this rain.  

[LibertyBell]

Someone was asking about the star burst the other night during the super moon, it was the Draconids, they are unique because they peak at  a very reasonable time in the early evening.

 

The Draconid meteor shower in October 2025 is unfortunately not ideal for viewing due to the recent supermoon, which peaked around October 7th and created bright moonlight that washes out fainter meteors. The shower peaked on October 8th, but the extra-bright light from the full moon made it difficult to see many shooting stars, though some might still be visible, especially brighter ones.  

 

What to know about the Draconids and the supermoon

• Supermoon and Draconids overlapped: 

  The Draconid meteor shower ran from October 6th to 10th, peaking on October 8th, the same week as the October full supermoon, which occurred on October 7th. 

   
• Moonlight hinders viewing: 

  Supermoons are brighter and appear larger than a typical full moon, and this extra brightness creates significant light pollution that makes it hard to see fainter meteors. 

   
• Best time to look: 

  The Draconids are unique because they are best viewed in the early evening, right after dusk, as their radiant point is high in the sky at that time. This is in contrast to most other meteor showers, which are best seen after midnight. 

   
• What you can still see: 

  While the bright moon made the shower less impressive, you may still have a chance to see the brighter, more dramatic meteors, especially if you find a location with minimal light pollution and look for meteors away from the moon's glare. 

[donsutherland1]

Steadier periods of rain will arrive tomorrow as a developing coastal nor'easter begins to affect the region. The wind will also pick up as the day wears on. Highs should reach the lower 60s tomorrow.

The nor'easter will bring periods of rain and strong winds to the region into Tuesday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely across the region with locally higher amounts. The wind will gust to 40 mph in New York City and its nearby suburbs, and 60 mph along portions of the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely.

Following the nor'easter, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region during the middle of next week. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +10.31 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.286 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ideal weather when you were there

dusty too?

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

I was going to ask you if you saw the Northern Lights up there but I guess not with all that dust? Or is that something that only happens during the races with dust being kicked up?