October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree with warlock on this one. I don't know why NWS is going so low for that area. It will likely be higher than low 70s with the southwest winds. 

Yes the difference between Friday and Saturday is going to be very noticeable.  We'll be close to 80 from Saturday through Tuesday.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The forecast is inconsistent with the AFD, which states:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather
feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going into the weekend. Friday night and Saturday
night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day
Saturday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 70s. 

The NBM has consistently shown highs of 77°-79° for Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, if one uses "South Belmar" (Lake Como) and "West Belmar," one gets the warmer forecast.

Belmar:

South Belmar:

 

West Belmar:

 

it will be close to 80 from Saturday through Tuesday.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My coolest morning of the fall so far with a low of 46°.

 

Too cold, 55 here.  I turned on my space heater (I had it on yesterday during the day when it was windy too.)

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, steve392 said:

44 degree's once i got to Mahwah.  What a feeling getting that fresh cool air with some remnants of fire places still in the air.  Awesome out!

The best thing about this morning is that it's crystal clear.

 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Too cold, 55 here.  I turned on my space heater (I had it on yesterday during the day when it was windy too.)

How can the temperature indoors drop so quickly that you need to turn on a space heater with lows in the mid 50s?

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Too cold, 55 here.  I turned on my space heater (I had it on yesterday during the day when it was windy too.)

Very refreshing after all the heat this summer. This area cools off better than the South Shore of Long Island.

This same dry pattern will help with the warm up this weekend. Places away from the weak sea breeze will probably beat guidance by a few degrees.

So there could be some usual NJ warm spots that get near 85° with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s since models are already showing 83° highs away from the sea breeze.

 

[jm1220]

45 here.

[steve392]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The best thing about this morning is that it's crystal clear.

 

Indeed.  Lots of star's out there this morning.  Radiational cooling in effect.

 

And really 55 with a space heater?? LOL.  I had windows cranked open with window unit on fan and another fan on high.  Was gorgeous waking up to this. Cats loved it too as they were sleeping acrobats in my window sill lol

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Indeed.  Lots of star's out there this morning.  Radiational cooling in effect.

 

And really 55 with a space heater?? LOL.  I had windows cranked open with window unit on fan and another fan on high.  Was gorgeous waking up to this. Cats loved it too as they were sleeping acrobats in my window sill lol

brrr lol, I don't like really cold or really hot inside lol.  Below 60 it's too cold and above 80 it's too hot lol.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very refreshing after all the heat this summer. This area cools off better than the South Shore of Long Island.

This same dry pattern will help with the warm up this weekend. Places away from the weak sea breeze will probably beat guidance by a few degrees.

So there could be some usual NJ warm spots that get near 85° with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s since models are already showing 83° highs away from the sea breeze.

 

The heat was very front loaded late June and July.  August and September were fallish, we got an early Fall this year, summer only lasted for about 6 weeks.

 

[dmillz25]

53 here

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very refreshing after all the heat this summer. This area cools off better than the South Shore of Long Island.

This same dry pattern will help with the warm up this weekend. Places away from the weak sea breeze will probably beat guidance by a few degrees.

So there could be some usual NJ warm spots that get near 85° with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s since models are already showing 83° highs away from the sea breeze.

 

it should be at least 80 here too, I don't see any seabreeze happening this weekend.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Sundog said:

How can the temperature indoors drop so quickly that you need to turn on a space heater with lows in the mid 50s?

No idea, but I was shivering outside my bedroom, I think it's because I have a lot of tiled floors that cool down rapidly.

 

[winterwarlock]

40 was my low

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The heat was very front loaded late June and July.  August and September were fallish, we got an early Fall this year, summer only lasted for about 6 weeks.

 

We got an early taste for fall in late August into early September before the endless summer pattern arrived in September with backloaded monthly record heat. 

[winterwarlock]

10 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ill screenshot for you from a real weather platform.  Use sunscreen, the sun is still strong.  Hope for a temp bust for you to enjoy more.

TWC has 79 for both Saturday and Sunday for Belmar

[uofmiami]

45.0 in Muttontown & 48.6 in Syosset.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We got an early taste for fall in late August into early September before the endless summer pattern arrived in September with backloaded monthly record heat. 

it wasn't that extreme lol.  August finished below normal even by your standards (average temperatures, I go by number of highs of 90+).  Only 1 90 degree day here in August and 0 at JFK means summer ended after July.

To me extreme needs to be 90+ at least with what we have experienced in other years when we had extreme late season heat.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

40 was my low

so close to upper 30s, you must live in the pine barrens.

I wonder what the lows were at FOK, MJX and MVY? and MPO for our higher elevation people?

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

45.0 in Muttontown & 48.6 in Syosset.

Muttontown and a bit northwest of there is such an ideal spot for radiational cooling for a location so "close" to the city. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sundog said:

Muttontown and a bit northwest of there is such an ideal spot for radiational cooling for a location so "close" to the city. 

My space heater goes off when the sun gets high enough, nothing better or more natural than solar heat

 

Yesterday I had it on during the morning because it was just too windy but turned it off in the afternoon as soon as the wind died down.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Muttontown and a bit northwest of there is such an ideal spot for radiational cooling for a location so "close" to the city. 

I wonder what the lows were at FOK, MJX AND MVY (sandy cool spots).  And MPO for our elevation folks?

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it wasn't that extreme lol.  August finished below normal even by your standards (average temperatures, I go by number of highs of 90+).  Only 1 90 degree day here in August and 0 at JFK means summer ended after July.

To me extreme needs to be 90+ at least with what we have experienced in other years when we had extreme late season heat.

 

Places like Islip just had their 3rd warmest September with record heat later in the month. 
 

Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - September 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	2344	1841	-	-	7	156	1.58	0.0	-
Average	78.1	61.4	69.8	2.9	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	74.8	58.9	66.9	-	53	108	3.60
2025-09-01	77	57	67.0	-4.2	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-02	78	58	68.0	-3.0	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-03	76	56	66.0	-4.8	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-04	78	58	68.0	-2.5	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-05	81	68	74.5	4.2	0	10	0.29	0.0	0
2025-09-06	82	67	74.5	4.5	0	10	0.39	0.0	0
2025-09-07	67	60	63.5	-6.2	1	0	0.41	0.0	0
2025-09-08	74	56	65.0	-4.5	0	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-09	74	53	63.5	-5.7	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-10	74	64	69.0	0.1	0	4	0.01	0.0	0
2025-09-11	81	57	69.0	0.4	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-12	79	61	70.0	1.8	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-13	76	58	67.0	-0.9	0	2	0.14	0.0	0
2025-09-14	79	62	70.5	2.9	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-15	82	63	72.5	5.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-16	76	63	69.5	2.6	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-17	74	64	69.0	2.4	0	4	T	0.0	0
2025-09-18	83	66	74.5	8.3	0	10	T	0.0	0
2025-09-19	85	61	73.0	7.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-20	75	57	66.0	0.5	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-21	71	52	61.5	-3.6	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-22	74	51	62.5	-2.2	2	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-23	79	65	72.0	7.6	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-24	80	70	75.0	11.0	0	10	0.07	0.0	0
2025-09-25	77	71	74.0	10.4	0	9	0.23	0.0	0
2025-09-26	85	66	75.5	12.3	0	11	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-27	82	63	72.5	9.7	0	8	0.03	0.0	0
2025-09-28	84	66	75.0	12.6	0	10	0.01	0.0	0
2025-09-29	79	65	72.0	10.0	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-30	82	63	72.5	10.9	0	8	0.00	0.0	0

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Places like Islip just had their 3rd warmest September with record heat later in the month. 
 

Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - September 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	2344	1841	-	-	7	156	1.58	0.0	-
Average	78.1	61.4	69.8	2.9	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	74.8	58.9	66.9	-	53	108	3.60
2025-09-01	77	57	67.0	-4.2	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-02	78	58	68.0	-3.0	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-03	76	56	66.0	-4.8	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-04	78	58	68.0	-2.5	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-05	81	68	74.5	4.2	0	10	0.29	0.0	0
2025-09-06	82	67	74.5	4.5	0	10	0.39	0.0	0
2025-09-07	67	60	63.5	-6.2	1	0	0.41	0.0	0
2025-09-08	74	56	65.0	-4.5	0	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-09	74	53	63.5	-5.7	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-10	74	64	69.0	0.1	0	4	0.01	0.0	0
2025-09-11	81	57	69.0	0.4	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-12	79	61	70.0	1.8	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-13	76	58	67.0	-0.9	0	2	0.14	0.0	0
2025-09-14	79	62	70.5	2.9	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-15	82	63	72.5	5.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-16	76	63	69.5	2.6	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-17	74	64	69.0	2.4	0	4	T	0.0	0
2025-09-18	83	66	74.5	8.3	0	10	T	0.0	0
2025-09-19	85	61	73.0	7.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-20	75	57	66.0	0.5	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-21	71	52	61.5	-3.6	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-22	74	51	62.5	-2.2	2	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-23	79	65	72.0	7.6	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-24	80	70	75.0	11.0	0	10	0.07	0.0	0
2025-09-25	77	71	74.0	10.4	0	9	0.23	0.0	0
2025-09-26	85	66	75.5	12.3	0	11	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-27	82	63	72.5	9.7	0	8	0.03	0.0	0
2025-09-28	84	66	75.0	12.6	0	10	0.01	0.0	0
2025-09-29	79	65	72.0	10.0	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-09-30	82	63	72.5	10.9	0	8	0.00	0.0	0

This is weird with the first half of the month so cool.  I just can't picture this as a hot September, certainly nothing like the historic 1983 (which was a true wall to wall summer for 4 months.)

[SACRUS]

 

54 / 41 clear off a low of 46.   Upper 60s / low 70s in the warmest spots - over exceeding highs/ sun-dryness.   Flow comes around warming Fri back to the 70s and upper 70s to low 80s / mid 80s in the warmest areas Sat - Tue.  Front on Wed (10/8) and next rain chance with cooling back near / slightly above normal.  Euro rebuilds ridge and warmth / strong warmth by the 10th and beyond, GFS a bit cooler / near normal. 

10/2 - 10/3 : Cooler / warmaing back to normal/ above
10/4 - 10/7 :   Warm / much warmer than normal (80s)  mid 80s in warmest areas, maybe warmer
10/ 8 - 10/10 :   Cooler - near normal (rain chances wed with front >0.25 inches 
10/11 - beyond :  Overall warmer (Euro is much warmer 10/11 - 10/13)

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it will be close to 80 from Saturday through Tuesday.

 

I agree. 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is weird with the first half of the month so cool.  I just can't picture this as a hot September, certainly nothing like the historic 1983 (which was a true wall to wall summer for 4 months.)

We have been getting these consistent patterns of June into early August record heat. Then a cooldown later in August and sometimes in early September. Then record warmth from late September into sometimes early November like last year.

This is why we haven’t had 100° heat after early August in 20 years and early September in over 30 years. The record early October mid 90s heat in 2019 was too late to reach 100°. But a month earlier we probably would have reached 100° if it was closer to Labor Day .

Almost like the pattern every year now of 55+ warmth from December 17th to the 25th. These patterns have been very persistent. 

[lee59]

47 here, first 40s of the season

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have been getting these consistent patterns of June into early August record heat. Then a cooldown later in August and sometimes in early September. Then record warmth from late September into sometimes early November like last year.

This is why we haven’t had 100° heat after early August in 20 years and early September in over 30 years.

Almost like the pattern every year now of 55+ warmth from December 17th to the 25th. 

What is up with the persistent torching during Christmas week?

It's like the planet knows to mess with us during the worst possible time. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (2019)
NYC: 93 (2019)
LGA: 95 (2019)
JFK: 95 (2019)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1997)
NYC: 39 *1886)
LGA: 42 (2003)
JFK: 43 (2009)

Historical:

1858
A hurricane with category 1 winds hit San Diego, CA, the only documented hurricane to strike California in history. This occurred before official weather observations began. Winds of at least 75 mph were estimated based on damage and journalistic accounts. Extensive wind damage to property neared F2 tornado scale damage. Streets were swept clean by heavy rains. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1867: A hurricane struck Galveston, TX with a storm surge that produced $1 million dollars damage. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1882 - An early season windstorm over Oregon and northern California blew down thousands of trees and caused great crop damage in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum)

1882:Louisiana was struck by major hurricane with winds reaching 100 mph and a 12-foot storm surge affecting the coast and bayous. 1,500 people were killed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1899: Earliest frost @ WBO 33° and 4 consecutive dates rec. 1st - 4th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)


1899: Boston, Massachusetts had a trace of snow today for the earliest recorded snow for the city. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1951: The center of a Tropical Storm crossed Florida from near Fort Myers to Vero Beach. Rainfall totals ranged from 8 to 13 inches along the track, but no strong winds occurred near the center. The strong winds of 50 to 60 mph were all in squalls along the lower east coast and Keys, causing minor property damage. The greatest damage was from rains that flooded farms and pasture lands over a broad belt extending from Naples, Fort Myers, and Punta Gorda on the west coast to Stuart, Fort Pierce, and Vero Beach on the east. Roadways damaged and several bridges washed out. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1953: An unseasonable heat ridge brought record heat from the Plains to the Appalachians. Several locations reported their warmest October temperatures on record including: Evansville, IN: 94°, St. Louis, MO: 94° (later tied), Springfield, IL: 93° (later tied), Louisville, KY: 92° (later tied then broken), Platteville, WI: 91°, Mondovi, WI: 90° and Duluth, MN: 86°. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1959 - A tornado struck the town of Ivy, VA (located near Charlottesville). Eleven persons were killed, including ten from one family. (The Weather Channel)

1963: Hurricane Flora moved across the south coast of Haiti and then meandered across eastern Cuba for the next 5 days, lashing the island with winds of 100 mph or more for at least 100 hours. Astronomical rainfall amounts as much as 90 inches were reported near Velasco. More rain was reported at Guantanamo Bay from Flora than was reported during the entire year of 1962. Flora remains the 2nd deadliest hurricane ever in the Atlantic, with over 7,000 deaths. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Several locations reported all-time October high temperature records including Palm Springs, CA: 116°, Borrego Springs, CA: 113 °F (This record was tied the next day), Yuma, AZ: 112°, Medford, OR: 99°, Eugene, OR: 94°, Blue Canyon, CA: 88° and Astoria, OR: 85°- since tied. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - The temperature at Blue Canyon, CA, soared to 88 degrees, an October record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - Severe thunderstorms raked Phoenix, AZ, with heavy rain, high winds, and hail up to an inch and a half in diameter, for the second day in a row. Thunderstorms on the 1st deluged Phoenix with .68 inch of rain in five minutes, equalling their all-time record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A fast moving cold front produced snow flurries from Minnesota to the Appalachian Mountains, and gale force winds behind the front ushered cold air into the Great Lakes Region. Valentine NE reported a record low of 25 degrees. Temperatures recovered rapidly in the Northern High Plains Region, reaching the lower 80s by afternoon. Jackson, WY, warmed from a morning low of 21 degrees to an afternoon high of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in Georgia produced three inches of rain at Canton and Woodstock. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Flooding due to thunderstorm rains in the southeastern U.S. on the last day of September and the first day of October caused the Etowah River to rise seven feet above flood stage at Canton GA. Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in northeastern Georgia, with six inches reported at Athens GA in 24 hours. One man was killed, and another man was injured, when sucked by floodwaters into drainage lines. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2000: Tremendous rains fell across South Florida due to a developing sub-tropical storm. Miami picked up 12.24 inches of rain in 24 hours and 15 inches in 2 days. The storm would go on to become Tropical Storm Leslie.

2003: Alaska: Temperatures around 70 °F in many Alaska communities set many all-time October maximum records by as much as 17 °F. In Chalkytsik, the high of 75 °F broke the old record by 16 F degrees. Other daily record highs included: Fort Yukon: 70°, Fairbanks: 70°, Homer: 60° and Bettles: 57 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)