Maggie Valley Steve Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I don't understand the panic over it at range. It's an excuse to become emotionally unattached to the anything to do with a storm of this potential. I've seen it for years with Tropical Systems. Human nature is still what it is . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Not panicking at range. It matches the euro lock in step in its useful range and everything with that interaction dictates our downstream result. It's 84 hour NAM. We all know it's crap at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: It's an excuse to become emotionally unattached to the anything to do with a storm of this potential. I've seen it for years with Tropical System. Human nature is still what it is . Freaking bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: It's 84 hour NAM. We all know it's crap at range. Met, I don’t disagree with you at all here man. It’s awful at 84. I was just making a point that the ingredients are sort of baked in for this setup much earlier. The interaction with the trough over Montana and the Baja low is how we’ve arrived at this point - which isn’t happening that far in the distant future. Modeling confidence for that interaction is only increasing each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Met, I don’t disagree with you at all here man. It’s awful at 84. I was just making a point that the ingredients are sort of baked in for this setup much earlier. The interaction with the trough over Montana and the Baja low is how we’ve arrived at this point - which isn’t happening that far in the distant future. Modeling confidence for that interaction is only increasing each run. I think we see some major changes from now until go time to be honest. We saw that this past weekend whether big or small. I really don't think any model has anything nailed down currently. I mean the euro moved the storm north over 100 miles from 1 run to another. The UKMET took the storm way north also. Either this high pressure is fake or the models aren't just getting this storm track right at this time. A lot going on still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Met1985 said: I think we see some major changes from now until go time to be honest. We saw that this past weekend whether big or small. I really don't think any model has anything nailed down currently. I mean the euro moved the storm north over 100 miles from 1 run to another. The UKMET took the storm way north also. Either this high pressure is fake or the models aren't just getting this storm track right at this time. A lot going on still. I’m on your side man and I hope that’s the case. We’ve certainly seen suppression win the past few years. Hope I didn’t seem argumentative. I just wanted to support what I was saying and not just come across as a Debbie downer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m on your side man and I hope that’s the case. We’ve certainly seen suppression win the past few years. Hope I didn’t seem argumentative. I just wanted to support what I was saying and not just come across as a Debbie downer. No not at all. This thread you can share anything with us. Just trying to keep things in perspective. We are all eagerly awaiting this event to unfold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z gfs is running. Let's see what we got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z ICON is a tad north of 6z, major ice storm for all of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z ICON is a tad north of 6z, major ice storm for all of NC That would be a crippling ice storm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z ICON temps throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Morning folks, just wanted to let you know I’m watching from afar. Everything that a typical big Southern snow entails is in play here. Good, bad, and ugly as seen in the models. Lots of good advice on living and dying with every model run in this current part of the thread. The chase is so much of the fun, don’t let it consume you. I’ll give some thoughts a bit later as things come into better focus. Enjoy the ride as this could be a really fun one!. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I think we see some major changes from now until go time to be honest. We saw that this past weekend whether big or small. I really don't think any model has anything nailed down currently. I mean the euro moved the storm north over 100 miles from 1 run to another. The UKMET took the storm way north also. Either this high pressure is fake or the models aren't just getting this storm track right at this time. A lot going on still. I have seen a 1036-1038 high get the job done here. A 1044 high makes me think the models aren't valuing it as much as they should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The 12z gfs will start out as snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Hvward said: I have seen a 1036-1038 high get the job done here. A 1044 high makes me think the models aren't valuing it as much as they should. Bingo Hunter! Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Start of storm on gfs.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The transition is pretty quick on this run. This would be a freaking mess.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Snow, mix, and freezing rain for the southern mountains. And this is some heavy precipitation. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I just hope the GFS is right at this point. 4-8 inches of sleet would be fun frankly, and the alternative is a life threatening situation for many. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: I just hope the GFS is right at this point. 4-8 inches of sleet would be fun frankly, and the alternative is a life threatening situation for many. Yes that would be something else for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is an interesting look.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hopefully this trend continues. Baja low dug more and more separation. Need to get the surface low skirting the gulf coast instead of cutting into north bama 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Temps crashing on the backside. I bet a lot see this end in heavy snow.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Flow snow would be a big factor on the back end in my opinion. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Flow snow would be a big factor on the back end in my opinion. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkI expect that you're correct about that.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z gfs totals. I don't have the sleet totals.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago My gut for all of us is a sleet fest but it could be kinda fun because we’re talking 4-6” of it. I personally have never seen that and I love a good freak show. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, BooneWX said: My gut for all of us is a sleet fest but it could be kinda fun because we’re talking 4-6” of it. I personally have never seen that and I love a good freak show. Yeah and that would stick around for a good week especially with what the Euro is showing. That crap would be super thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: My gut for all of us is a sleet fest but it could be kinda fun because we’re talking 4-6” of it. I personally have never seen that and I love a good freak show. I was looking forward to a foot of snow followed by that much sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Can someone get a sleet map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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