2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[gopack42]

What's the thought about Friday afternoon/evening up around where I am in Beech?  I'm supposed to fly home to Bristol (and drive home to Beech) Sat, but it's almost certain that wouldnt happen.  So, I'm likely changing to try to come home Friday.  I don't want to attempt that if there's also a chance of issues in CLT, TRI or driving home.  I'm torn.  And if I wait till after Sat, only the good lord knows when I'd get back.  

[Met1985]

30 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

What's the thought about Friday afternoon/evening up around where I am in Beech?  I'm supposed to fly home to Bristol (and drive home to Beech) Sat, but it's almost certain that wouldnt happen.  So, I'm likely changing to try to come home Friday.  I don't want to attempt that if there's also a chance of issues in CLT, TRI or driving home.  I'm torn.  And if I wait till after Sat, only the good lord knows when I'd get back.  

The models don't bring in the bulk of the precipitation in until either early Saturday morning or late Saturday morning currently.  

[WxKnurd]

Hope yall get crushed! Definitely are due. Classic overrunning event it looks like. 

[gopack42]

27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The models don't bring in the bulk of the precipitation in until either early Saturday morning or late Saturday morning currently.  

Yeah, I thought so, but I wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.  I wanna be home for this one!

[Sw NC weather]

Might have to go pour a shot. What a run! Still light snow going on at this point. 18-24” for WNC!

[Met1985]

00z gfs

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[BlueRidgeFolklore]

My goodness what a run! 

[Hvward]

6z GFS is scary for WNC.  Power grid problems for sure if that comes to fruition.  Almost a foot of snow before the low transfers and then a deformation feature behind it.  Might have to start getting pretty serious on this one.

[buckeyefan1]

The 6z gfs says mby will have 3.5” of snow, 6” of sleet and a little glaze to really lock it in. Good thing I have plenty of pto

[WNC_Fort]

16 minutes ago, Hvward said:

6z GFS is scary for WNC.  Power grid problems for sure if that comes to fruition.  Almost a foot of snow before the low transfers and then a deformation feature behind it.  Might have to start getting pretty serious on this one.

We’re talking snow totals on the GFS/Euro that rival or surpass THE storms especially in Asheville & McDowell. 

[Met1985]

6z gfs. Absolutely smoked. We've not seen these modeled totals this close in several years.

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[Met1985]

12 minutes ago, Hvward said:

6z GFS is scary for WNC.  Power grid problems for sure if that comes to fruition.  Almost a foot of snow before the low transfers and then a deformation feature behind it.  Might have to start getting pretty serious on this one.

WNC would be shut down for weeks. 

[Hvward]

46 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

6z gfs. Absolutely smoked. We've not seen these modeled totals this close in several years.

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Its been since the 2017 and 2018 Dec storms that I can remember seeing models so robust for us.

[Met1985]

00z euro. Lots of snow then ice. Would be a nightmare.

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[Hvward]

6z Euro now showing a little appetizer on Friday AM.  I would consider this a baroclinic leaf out of front of the main storm.  Something to watch.

[Hvward]

6z Euro with another huge hit.  This is starting to get a little worrisome honestly.  We really don't need 12"+ of snow and ice on top of that, then temps close to zero.  People need to get prepared, lots of power outages are going to occur.

[WNC_Fort]

5 minutes ago, Hvward said:

6z Euro with another huge hit.  This is starting to get a little worrisome honestly.  We really don't need 12"+ of snow and ice on top of that, then temps close to zero.  People need to get prepared, lots of power outages are going to occur.

You thinking WNC sees a little bit of everything? Or chance it stays all snow?

[ncjoaquin]

And I know we have the weekend to start. But checkout the GFS through the end of it's run. It could be rough sledding around. Pun intended.  That's over 30 inches in many places.

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

You thinking WNC sees a little bit of everything? Or chance it stays all snow?

Bank on a little bit of everything at this point. 

[Sw NC weather]

This is turning into something historical. May still shift one way or another. But somewhere in the southeast is going to be shut down for a week or more. The euro and gfs are crazy. 

[Hvward]

You thinking WNC sees a little bit of everything? Or chance it stays all snow?

Too hard to tell right now.  It's all going to happen at the 700mb level.  Warm nose comes in way up high and produces full melt, then it falls through 5000ft of frozen, hits the surface at 21 degrees as sleet because after full melt we have full freeze again.  I am banking on sleet over freezing rain.  Sounding screams full melt then full freeze again.  General rule of thumb from what I learned was that you need around 1500' of above freezing temps for the parcel to fall through to produce full melt and the same is true with refreezing of precipitation. 

[CheoahBald1]

6z Euro with another huge hit.  This is starting to get a little worrisome honestly.  We really don't need 12"+ of snow and ice on top of that, then temps close to zero.  People need to get prepared, lots of power outages are going to occur.

You might wanna show us the 6z gefs and 6z NBM


.

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, CheoahBald1 said:

You might wanna show us the 6z gefs and 6z NBM


.

You might wanna look for yourself 

[Met1985]

GEFS 10:1 snow mean. Not bad.

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[BretWx]

Wow. What a sight to wake up to. GFS showing an almost 40 hour event. PHEW!

6Z EURO is very concerning. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

GEFS 10:1 snow mean. Not bad.

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When was the last time we saw a snow mean that high? 2017?

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

When was the last time we saw a snow mean that high? 2017?

Been a long time.

[Bigbald]

12 hours ago, gopack42 said:

What's the thought about Friday afternoon/evening up around where I am in Beech?  I'm supposed to fly home to Bristol (and drive home to Beech) Sat, but it's almost certain that wouldnt happen.  So, I'm likely changing to try to come home Friday.  I don't want to attempt that if there's also a chance of issues in CLT, TRI or driving home.  I'm torn.  And if I wait till after Sat, only the good lord knows when I'd get back.  

They do a remarkable job of working the roads from jc to beech/sugar.   To my friends that dont ski they are shocked we are able to go during, or just after a good snow, and I have to explain they throw alot of resources at it to keep these places open.  That being said, I cant imagine making the trip for this one and with the cold that follows. I think I will try and give it 72 hrs after the storm clears.  I bet the slopes will be epic.