Met1985 Posted December 28, 2025 Share Posted December 28, 2025 For those wondering about snow. I don't see anything yet in the models. The pattern is going to be better but I think we kind of see something come within the 5-day time frame personally. There have been discussions about January 10 through like the 20th but I'm not putting any stock into that. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2025 Share Posted December 28, 2025 3 hours ago, gopack42 said: Definitely agree with your data backed analysis lolol I made some post but at this time I don't see anything significant. I believe as we head further into January we see a better pattern for getting snow. We need the cold air back in here first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Over the past week the GEFS has gained 43 points for the upcoming 7 day stretch. Just an absolute swing and a miss for the American data on the transition into the New Year. This is from BAM weather. The American model has absolutely sucked. Even the EURO from only 5 days out has struggled a ton. This is a huge red flag for mid to late range guidance. A lot of volatility with the models. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Met, how does that scoring system work? Blues, reds, yellow, points? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Met, how does that scoring system work? Blues, reds, yellow, points? That's a great question. Ill get back to you on that. Im going to do some research. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Met, how does that scoring system work? Blues, reds, yellow, points? 5 hours ago, Met1985 said: That's a great question. I’ll get back to you on that. Im going to do some research. Carver/Met, I happen to already be knowledgeable about what BAMwx is trying to say. I don’t know why BAMwx is calling it 43 “points” gained for the GEFS. That throws off this tweet and makes it confusing. It’s actually 43 heating degree days gained for the period 12/28-1/3 vs what the run had 7 days ago (12/21 run). This means that the 12/21 run was much warmer for that period than the 12/28 run mainly because it largely was still missing the oncoming E US cold period. OTOH, the 12/21 EPS wasn’t nearly as far off because it was significantly colder than the GEFS in the E US due to already figuring it out much earlier than the GEFS. So, it only needed to gain 12 HDDs to fully see the light. The blues represent colder changes since 12/21 while the red/yellow means warmer changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 29, 2025 Author Share Posted December 29, 2025 Back to winter this morning. I've dropped from 44 at 6 am to 35 currently with rain in Wolf.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 Yep today is going to be a shock to the system. We are going to lose about 40 to 50 degrees from where we were this weekend to what we will be seeing tomorrow morning. Also the wind is going to be ripping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 Yep today is going to be a shock to the system. We are going to lose about 40 to 50 degrees from where we were this weekend to what we will be seeing tomorrow morning. Also the wind is going to be ripping.Wind already ripping down here. Sitting at 55 degrees. But taking the family hiking tomorrow so the cold weather will be better than what it was on Saturday at 77 freaking degrees! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 13 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Wind already ripping down here. Sitting at 55 degrees. But taking the family hiking tomorrow so the cold weather will be better than what it was on Saturday at 77 freaking degrees! . Yeah tomorrow will be raw highs in the 20s and 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 29, 2025 Author Share Posted December 29, 2025 27 with moderate snow in Wolf.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 29, 2025 Share Posted December 29, 2025 Just got home. Dang it's cold! Current temp is 25 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 30, 2025 Author Share Posted December 30, 2025 Down to 13.8 here. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Temp down to 21 degrees. Summer temps can kiss it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 30, 2025 Author Share Posted December 30, 2025 11 with light snow and LOTS of wind in Wolf. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 A pleasant surprise this morning. Walked out to get some more firewood and I have moderate snow with a dusting on everything. Current temp is 14 degrees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 30, 2025 Author Share Posted December 30, 2025 6° and moderate snow in Wolf. About an inch on the ground.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Blowing around a lot but snowing good. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Snowing good on Smoky Park highway at Enka Candler.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Laying on the road Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 It's slick also.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location? Yeah these flakes are sizable. The best thing is that non of the models showed this at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 17 for my low and nothing at the house. Lots of rime ice above 4000 ft though. I did see a report of flurries in Waynesville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Nice surprise to wake up to. 1.5" in the wind protected holler here at home. 14 for the low. Very nice. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Had a dusting starting around the French Broad on 26 when I drove up to Asheville earlier from down in SC. Colder here again than back in MT currently. Ski resorts are taking a beating across most of the west so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 30, 2025 Share Posted December 30, 2025 Solid 3 inches here at 4650 on Beech. Nice surprise amount! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 30, 2025 Author Share Posted December 30, 2025 Solid 3 inches here at 4650 on Beech. Nice surprise amount!Nice. I ended up with 2.25".Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted December 31, 2025 Share Posted December 31, 2025 It never got above freezing today at the house. Currently 21 and calm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Happy New Year y'all! 24 with flurries and a stiff breeze in Wolf this morning.Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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