2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[Met1985]

For those wondering about snow. I don't see anything yet in the models. The pattern is going to be better but I think we kind of see something come within the 5-day time frame personally. There have been discussions about January 10 through like the 20th but I'm not putting any stock into that.

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[Met1985]

3 hours ago, gopack42 said:

Definitely agree with your data backed analysis lolol

I made some post but at this time I don't see anything significant.  I believe as we head further into January we see a better pattern for getting snow. We need the cold air back in here first and foremost. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Over the past week the GEFS has gained 43 points for the upcoming 7 day stretch.

Just an absolute swing and a miss for the American data on the transition into the New Year.
This is from BAM weather. The American model has absolutely sucked. Even the EURO from only 5 days out has struggled a ton. This is a huge red flag for mid to late range guidance. A lot of volatility with the models.

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Met, how does that scoring system work?  Blues, reds, yellow, points?  

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Met, how does that scoring system work?  Blues, reds, yellow, points?  

That's a great question.  Ill get back to you on that.  Im going to do some research.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Met, how does that scoring system work?  Blues, reds, yellow, points?  

 

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

That's a great question.  I’ll get back to you on that.  Im going to do some research.

Carver/Met,

 I happen to already be knowledgeable about what BAMwx is trying to say. I don’t know why BAMwx is calling it 43 “points” gained for the GEFS. That throws off this tweet and makes it confusing.

 It’s actually 43 heating degree days gained for the period 12/28-1/3 vs what the run had 7 days ago (12/21 run). This means that the 12/21 run was much warmer for that period than the 12/28 run mainly because it largely was still missing the oncoming E US cold period. OTOH, the 12/21 EPS wasn’t nearly as far off because it was significantly colder than the GEFS in the E US due to already figuring it out much earlier than the GEFS. So, it only needed to gain 12 HDDs to fully see the light.

 The blues represent colder changes since 12/21 while the red/yellow means warmer changes.

 

[Buckethead]

Back to winter this morning. I've dropped from 44 at 6 am to 35 currently with rain in Wolf.

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[Met1985]

Yep today is going to be a shock to the system.  We are going to lose about 40 to 50 degrees from where we were this weekend to what we will be seeing tomorrow morning. Also the wind is going to be ripping.

[strongwxnc]

Yep today is going to be a shock to the system.  We are going to lose about 40 to 50 degrees from where we were this weekend to what we will be seeing tomorrow morning. Also the wind is going to be ripping.

Wind already ripping down here. Sitting at 55 degrees.
But taking the family hiking tomorrow so the cold weather will be better than what it was on Saturday at 77 freaking degrees!


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[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Wind already ripping down here. Sitting at 55 degrees.
But taking the family hiking tomorrow so the cold weather will be better than what it was on Saturday at 77 freaking degrees!


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Yeah tomorrow will be raw highs in the 20s and 30s.