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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread


Buckethead
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Pics from my Sunday snow chase. 3-4” around 7000’ in the Beartooths south of Red Lodge.  Wet snow in town there around 5000’  with not much stickage when I left.  More mountain snow likely this weekend with another system rolling in, active pattern we seem to be entering out here.

IMG_1387.jpeg.10eccd0fc14a4295bc58adf1765c72c0.jpegIMG_1386.jpeg.7203c5854c761cf6906a85fdb9a8cc3d.jpegIMG_1383.jpeg.8df762bb7e793926af7de2c058290e9e.jpegIMG_1378.jpeg.e687697517385c40fd5ee245dca2a76f.jpeg

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First snow in town today, unexpected. Flurries turned to decent little snow shower this morning, no Accumulation though. Raw, cold, windy day that didn’t break 40.  Think it’s the first time I’ve been colder than you guys which shows just how amazing the weather has been for you guys this Fall temp wise!

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1 hour ago, WxKnurd said:

First snow in town today, unexpected. Flurries turned to decent little snow shower this morning, no Accumulation though. Raw, cold, windy day that didn’t break 40.  Think it’s the first time I’ve been colder than you guys which shows just how amazing the weather has been for you guys this Fall temp wise!

Send pics bro!

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We've had a nice stretch of amazing weather the last several days. Another cool front arrives Wednesday providing additional pleasant cool temperatures with a stronger shot of cool air and perhaps a shower or two this weekend. The fronts are becoming more frequent and progressive. The days are getting shorter and winter will be here before we know it!

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We had a chilly low this morning of 40. A backdoor front arrives overnight will reinforce cooler temperatures and a chance of some showers Sunday with the arrival of a stronger front. The leaves in the Valley should be near peak this weekend. I'm seeing a trend in the longer range guidance suggesting stronger cold fronts pushing through until the end of October. Even some hints a snow showers in the longer range!

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50 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This weather is ok but im ready to start seeing some changes towards the end of the month.  Only had a low of 44.

It's coming! 

Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

 

image.png.6be210ef63bf62e7e175513326449d2c.png

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3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It's coming! 

Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

 

image.png.6be210ef63bf62e7e175513326449d2c.png

Oh yeah I think it is coming for sure. Im not worried at all about a warm October. 

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The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us.

https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131

However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

image.thumb.png.fee79f904d14a3e6df250597b0f93b70.png

 

november_12_2013_nc_snowmap.png

november_25-26_2013_nc_snowmap.png

november_26_2013_nc_ice_storm_map.gif

december_8-9_2013_nc_ice_storm_map.jpg

january_15-16_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

january_21-22_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

february_11_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

february_12-13_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

march_3-4_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

march_6-7_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

 

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The models are going to be catching onto this and yes we are in the latter part of the season when this matters. Im already seeing multiple cold fronts on the GFS and the Euro. The NAO in particularly is impressive for any time of the year. We will see what happens but all good signs to turning colder, getting our first frost, first freeze, and especially getting towards the end of the month possibly our first flakes. Stay tuned. ao.gefs.sprd2.jpgnao.gefs.sprd2.jpgpna.gefs.sprd2.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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Also to note the Eurasia SCE is looking really really good through mid month so far in October.
From Mark Margavage meteorologist,
Winter Feedback Mechanism
An Extremely Prominent Dipole Pattern has developed in Eurasian Autumnal Snow Cover Extent as of October 15th.

IF IT HOLDS, this pattern of Autumnal Eurasian SCE puts a lot of pressure on the Polar Vortex resulting in frequent wave reflections causing arctic outbreaks into Eastern North America during winter.
Also the PV being weak is a great sign for this winter that is why we are seeing some impressive dips with the AO and NAO already.
If things continue this would be a big positive for our Winter around here.20251016_204623.jpg20251016_204639.jpg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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8 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us.

https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131

However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

image.thumb.png.fee79f904d14a3e6df250597b0f93b70.png

 

november_12_2013_nc_snowmap.png

november_25-26_2013_nc_snowmap.png

november_26_2013_nc_ice_storm_map.gif

december_8-9_2013_nc_ice_storm_map.jpg

january_15-16_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

january_21-22_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

february_11_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

february_12-13_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

march_3-4_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

march_6-7_2014_nc_snowmap.gif

 

They're going standard canonical La nina Pattern.

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