Tropical Depression Three

[WxWatcher007]

After casually watching a window for TC genesis in the Gulf or off the SE coast the last week, the signal began to focus on disturbance spawned by a stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed and Invest 92L has rising odds to become at least a moisture laden tropical depression as it meanders the next few days. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today.

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has 
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is 
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further 
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form 
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend 
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and 
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal 
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cptcatz]

Impressive area of convection formed this morning. This looks a lot more like a tropical storm than most other early season slop I've seen. If it holds up it can easily overperform the models.

[BarryStantonGBP]

60 60 now 

[Kevin Reilly]

Good outflow aloft.  Looks like  depression to me or even a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm Chantal. 
 

Small Upper level low just southeast of Atlanta Georgia and dry air punching in from the northwest should limit development but also should tug what could become Chantal towards the southeast South and North Carolina coastline before gradually moving back off to the northeast. 
 

Another interesting area well to the east of the Bahamas.  Things waking up a bit out there. 

[jbenedet]

Surprising lack of interest on this. I guess that’s what we get when everyone becomes a model junkie…

 

As if very close proximity to CONUS wasn’t enough, I’m seeing the bulk of ensemble members on GEFS/EPS with a landfall within 84 hrs (assuming it gets named) on the east coast. 

[Yanksfan]

Looking good on the latest imagery. I would imagine it will be classified as a TD/weak TS at 11am.

[jbenedet]

Yea that’s a TS by looks on IR and vis satellite.

 

Should get a name imminently.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s hard to tell via radar but there looks like there’s a fairly well defined low level circulation. 

[GaWx]

Recon will take off at noon EDT and get into it during the early afternoon:
 

SUSPECT AREA (OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1600Z
D. 30.5N 79.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION

[GaWx]

 Recon will be in it shortly. They released this 2PM EDT TWO quite early:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

[WxWatcher007]

Recon descending now

[WxWatcher007]

Plenty of westerlies and early hints of FL and SFMR over 34kt. Not enough sampling yet to confirm a closed circulation but it’s probably there. 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Plenty of westerlies and early hints of FL and SFMR over 34kt. Not enough sampling yet to confirm a closed circulation but it’s probably there. 

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad.
Opinions?

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad.
Opinions?

Looks too broad based on what we have right now, but they need to sample that north side.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks too broad based on what we have right now, but they need to sample that north side.

I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status:

AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD

Also, note the 79.0W longitude, which suggests it’s a little E of the 79.5W longitude that the LLC was earlier supposedly near.

[NorthHillsWx]

Satellite imagery is a bit deceiving as the MLC is well east of surface circulation and surface center is diffuse. Will be interesting what NHC goes with at 5, but it’s not far off from a name. IMO this very likely gets named and areas east of landfall have a nasty weekend 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Satellite imagery is a bit deceiving as the MLC is well east of surface circulation and surface center is diffuse. Will be interesting what NHC goes with at 5, but it’s not far off from a name. IMO this very likely gets named and areas east of landfall have a nasty weekend 

They’re going with a TD rather than STD as of the 5 PM/initial advisory:

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[BarryStantonGBP]

someone change the thread title 

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[BarryStantonGBP]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status:

AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD

Also, note the 79.0W longitude, which suggests it’s a little E of the 79.5W longitude that the LLC was earlier supposedly near.

couldn't even be a tropical depression LOL

[GaWx]

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South
Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.



Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.

The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.

The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.

 

[TriPol]

Could bring some moisture and humidity to the NYC area this week. I’ll keep an eye out.

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, 
with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the 
deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly 
shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level 
center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with 
data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite 
trends.  

The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term 
motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion 
is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on 
the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the 
northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered 
to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed 
along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion 
should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina 
Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, 
consistent with the latest guidance.

The global models generally indicate that the current shear should 
lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in 
combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is 
plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit 
significant development, as well as the current disheveled 
structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening 
as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows 
suit, near the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake