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Newark (interiors of NJ/se NYS/CT) Sun-Wed June 22-25 possibly hottest 3-4 day period this year (2025) with 2-4 100F+ days, possibly hottest June daily. NYC probably one 100 deg. HI exceeds 105 interior M-T June 23-24.


wdrag
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10 hours ago, wdrag said:

So, I aw Don's post-thank you.  Added PHI max T RTP today below.

HI generally less tomorrow but actual temp hotter and the overwhelming warmth aloft and w-nw BL flow will make it more difficult for sea breezes. My guess NYC makes 100-101 and KEWR close to 103-104. EPS has been pretty good!

a third 100 degree day possible I95 corridor Wednesday, presuming it makes 100+ Tuesday. 

Despite the weak gradient, large low level lapse rates allow downward transfer of offshore nw wind from between 850-700mb.  

 

Screen Shot 2025-06-23 at 8.35.43 PM.png

I am very optimistic here for 100 near JFK today

 

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11 hours ago, Sundog said:

ConEd says not to charge your electric vehicle unless absolutely necessary lol

Let's switch everything to electric and then not able to handle the load when we actually need it, makes a lot of sense. 

One day vehicles will be able to be charged on the go from the frictional energy of driving.

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

After a low of 75 I'm up to 84.  

Even though temps will rise fast now, dropping into the low 80s by 6PM yesterday (for a lot of us) makes a difference in how we perceive the heatwave. My worst memories of past heatwaves is being in the 90s still at midnight or even after.

If we peaked in the 100s and dropped down into the 80s quickly like yesterday I wouldn't care about the heat. This evening and tonight will be atrocious compared to yesterday. 

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10 hours ago, wdrag said:

So, I aw Don's post-thank you.  Added PHI max T RTP today below.

HI generally less tomorrow but actual temp hotter and the overwhelming warmth aloft and w-nw BL flow will make it more difficult for sea breezes. My guess NYC makes 100-101 and KEWR close to 103-104. EPS has been pretty good!

a third 100 degree day possible I95 corridor Wednesday, presuming it makes 100+ Tuesday. 

Despite the weak gradient, large low level lapse rates allow downward transfer of offshore nw wind from between 850-700mb.  

 

Screen Shot 2025-06-23 at 8.35.43 PM.png

Andover had 0.55 inches of rain on the same day they hit 98?

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4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Even though temps will rise fast now, dropping into the low 80s by 6PM yesterday (for a lot of us) makes a difference in how we perceive the heatwave. My worst memories of past heatwaves is being in the 90s still at midnight or even after.

If we peaked in the 100s and dropped down into the 80s quickly like yesterday I wouldn't care about the heat. This evening and tonight will be atrocious compared to yesterday. 

I think yesterday was worse because of higher dew points.  It feels very cool this morning.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I think yesterday was worse because of higher dew points.  It feels very cool this morning.

38% relative humidity doesn't sound that high from Monday afternoon, but with the dew points at 70 degrees or higher is what we felt...

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at Valley Stream on that map, just east of JFK, thats a westerly wind, 100 degrees if not more.

 

It will be a race at JFK today to see if they can reach 100° before the sea breeze. The record ridge is so strong that the Bermuda high pressure is building much further north into Canada. So it leaves a little weakness in the ridge near our area that allows a sea breeze south of the Belt Parkway and the Southern State on Western LI.

IMG_3891.thumb.png.2a144fd00d59b3e41659fe766652ed33.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

HRRR has the sea breeze staying close to the coast. This should help coastal locations approach and exceed 100

hrrr-nyc-wnd10m_stream_mph-0798800.thumb.png.3bc2cd62acef2e380fc41c5dff00a69c.png

 

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

10z HRRRRRRRRRR has 100s right down to the beaches:

1153475818_Screenshot2025-06-24at7_45_49AM.png.6273a5a52f2194d6dfba9c550e94efbc.png

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be a race at JFK today to see if they can reach 100° before the sea breeze. The record ridge is so strong that the Bermuda high pressure is building much further north into Canada. So it leaves a little weakness in the ridge near our area that allows a sea breeze south of the Belt Parkway and the Southern State on Western LI.

IMG_3891.thumb.png.2a144fd00d59b3e41659fe766652ed33.png

 

 

it reminds me of the rain/snow line in the winter, it's the same processes in play too.

 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That area where the winds combine will likely be the hot spot across the area. Maybe some 102-103 readings there. 

Yes I'm hoping for here.  Long Beach can stay in the 80s as they aren't really part of long island (it's a barrier island like Fire Island and Jones Beach are.)  As a matter of fact, those barrier islands serve a useful purpose as they keep the sea breeze away from long island proper on days like today.

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it reminds me of the rain/snow line in the winter, it's the same processes in play too.

 

The HRRR is the most aggressive in suppressing the sea breeze allowing JFK to reach 100°. The other guidance is just a few miles north stalling along the Belt Parkway to Southern State. Somebody just north of sea breeze with downslope compressional warming will probably go 102°-104°. Maybe a peak somewhere of 105° from Newark to Central Queens and perhaps NW Nassau.

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be a race at JFK today to see if they can reach 100° before the sea breeze. The record ridge is so strong that the Bermuda high pressure is building much further north into Canada. So it leaves a little weakness in the ridge near our area that allows a sea breeze south of the Belt Parkway and the Southern State on Western LI.

IMG_3891.thumb.png.2a144fd00d59b3e41659fe766652ed33.png

 

 

what was going on in July 2011 that allowed JFK to hit 103 on a wind from the due South lol

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/2011-7-22

11:51 AM 101 °F 73 °F 41 % WSW 10 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy
12:51 PM 99 °F 74 °F 45 % SSW 13 mph 0 mph 29.81 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
1:51 PM 102 °F 74 °F 41 % SW 15 mph 0 mph 29.81 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
2:51 PM 101 °F 74 °F 42 % S 15 mph 0 mph 29.80 in 0.0 in Fair
3:51 PM 96 °F 75 °F 51 % SSW 14 mph 0 mph 29.80 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy
4:51 PM 95 °F 75 °F 52 % SSW 20 mph 25 mph 29.81 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/woodmere/KJFK

 

By the way JFK has hit 90 at 7:51 AM !!! This is the earliest I can remember them ever hitting 90 !!!

 

12:51 AM 77 °F 73 °F 88 % SSW 3 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
1:51 AM 78 °F 74 °F 87 % SW 3 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
2:51 AM 78 °F 75 °F 90 % SW 3 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
3:51 AM 77 °F 75 °F 94 % SSW 3 mph 0 mph 30.05 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
4:51 AM 78 °F 75 °F 90 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 30.06 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
5:51 AM 79 °F 76 °F 90 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 30.08 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy
6:51 AM 86 °F 73 °F 65 % NNW 6 mph 0 mph 30.09 in 0.0 in Fair
7:51 AM 90 °F 72 °F 55 % NW 12 mph 0 mph 30.10 in 0.0 in Fair
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The HRRR is the most aggressive in suppressing the sea breeze allowing JFK to reach 100°. The other guidance is just a few miles north stalling along the Belt Parkway to Southern State. Somebody just north of sea breeze with downslope compressional warming will probably go 102°-104°. Maybe a peak somewhere of 105° from Newark to Central Queens and maybe NW Nassau.

JFK has already reached 90 it's the earliest I can remember that happening.

If we have a strong NW flow then there won't be any seabreeze before 4 pm, that's what I'm hoping for.

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