6/16-6/18 Severe Weather Threat

[King James]

Good bit of sun this morning

[Mogget]

Hope we get some rain.  So far, this period of storminess has disappointed

[sbnwx85]

Tornado Watch coming for much of Central and Southern Illinois.

[sbnwx85]

Mesoscale Discussion 1345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...eastern IL...western/northern IN...far southwest
   Lower MI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 432...

   Valid 181557Z - 181800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 432 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase substantially through
   mid-afternoon as an arc of storms intensifies to the east-northeast
   from central Illinois. A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,
   and isolated severe hail will remain possible. Downstream tornado
   watch issuance is anticipated to the northeast of Ww 432.

   DISCUSSION...While the primary surface cyclone and attendant MCV are
   centered near the northeast MO/west-central IL border area, a
   downstream arc of increasing deep convection is expected to
   strengthen across central IL. With mid 70s surface dew points common
   across southern IL/IN, a pronounced MLCAPE gradient is setting up
   from south to north. A compact belt of strong 700-500 mb
   southwesterlies in the LSX VWP, recently sampled by the ILX VWP as
   well, should support a broken band of supercells within this leading
   arc as it spreads northeast. The potential for tornadoes has
   increased and a 10 percent tornado probability will be added in the
   1630Z D1 Outlook. The LSX VWP also indicates low-level SRH
   diminishing behind this leading arc, but some tornado threat should
   linger near the immediate MCV/surface low.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

 

[A-L-E-K]

brutal miss southeast but glad enough for the incoming rain

[CP_WinterStorm]

17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

brutal miss southeast but glad enough for the incoming rain

I'll gladly set a couple of fans outside to blow the severe weather back in your direction. I've had my fill of tornadoes and damaging wind for the year already!

[sbnwx85]

Three tornado warnings before noon across Central Illinois. I think it might be one of those days.

[King James]

Watch issued for me. Good bit of sun and humidity all morning. Definitely not a cloudy start to the day. Feels like storms could for sure pop off

[Chinook]

the radar shows one, or two, areas of rotation. it's a tornado. It's the same radar, different tilt

 

[nwohweather]

Looks like a nice shot for the area between 6-8 PM tonight

[sbnwx85]

5 minutes ago, Chinook said:

the radar shows one, or two, areas of rotation. it's a tornado. It's the same radar, different tilt

 

Correlation coefficient shows it’s on the ground. Looks like it may have clipped the west side of Jacksonville before going toward the airport.

[Chinook]

Tornado possible near Detroit

Quote

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Macomb County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 112 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Royal Oak, or near Troy, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Sunny as can be and muggy here

Got the feeling 

[sbnwx85]

Nice probs on the new Tornado Watch.

[SolidIcewx]

25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Tornado possible near Detroit

 

I seen that had to call a couple coworkers and tell them to get inside. (They never look at the weather really)

[sbnwx85]

Let's goooo

Mesoscale Discussion 1346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...eastern IL and western/northern IN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 432...434...

   Valid 181744Z - 181945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 432, 434 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado and damaging wind potential should increase into
   late afternoon amid multiple bands of thunderstorms spreading
   east-northeast from Illinois into Indiana. A strong tornado is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Primary midday tornado potential has been prominent
   near the immediate MCV/surface cyclone in west-central IL, including
   a damaging tornado in Morgan County, IL during the past hour.
   Enhanced surface vorticity within this persistent pocket of
   lower-topped storms should continue to pose a tornado threat across
   central IL. 

   An expanding arc of broken to linear convection into east-central IL
   should have increasing tornado/damaging wind potential as it spreads
   into IN through late afternoon. Area VWPs have been a bit subdued on
   0-1 km shear, but the PAH/VWX VWPs has gradually strengthened and
   this should spread north-northeast across the Wabash Valley. Tornado
   potential may be relatively maximized with 1) discrete, sustained
   supercells on the southern portion of the broader convective band
   and 2) in the more bent-back arc across northeast IL/northern IN
   with hybrid supercell/QLCS mesovortices.

[Chinook]

by the small town of San Jose, Illinois

Quote

Logan-Tazewell-Mason-
121 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...SOUTH CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND EAST CENTRAL MASON
COUNTIES...

At 121 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located two miles north
of Mason City, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

 

 

[Chinook]

37 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I seen that had to call a couple coworkers and tell them to get inside. (They never look at the weather really)

Hopefully that was just some rain, and not a tornado. (I haven't heard of any tornado report by Detroit.)

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Sunny as can be and muggy here

Got the feeling 

We’re on the compression stroke. It’s coming. Heavy sun here and 85° 

[sbnwx85]

One of the weirder warnings I’ve seen with a wide gap between the warning and actual line of storms. And it’s warned for 70 mph winds.

[KeenerWx]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

One of the weirder warnings I’ve seen with a wide gap between the warning and actual line of storms. And it’s warned for 70 mph winds.

LOT hasn't yet warned the counties immediately in front of the line. Definitely weird presentation haha. 

[SolidIcewx]

15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Hopefully that was just some rain, and not a tornado. (I haven't heard of any tornado report by Detroit.)

Just some wind is all I heard from the Utility end of things. Run of the mill radar indicated storm.

[nwohweather]

Might have to throw the "d" word out looking at that line in Western IN. I can see this thing easily going another 200 miles

[sbnwx85]

It's hauling.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM
EDT/230 PM CDT/ FOR WHITE...PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN CASS...STARKE AND
SOUTHERN LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 259 PM EDT/159 PM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from Roselawn to near Wolcott to near Brookston,
moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

[TheClimateChanger]

Wow, that line/system looks quite intense. Have to wonder if it will reach derecho criteria.

[Jackstraw]

Well just got new tires down in Indy. Time to road test lol


Sent from my SM-S134DL using Tapatalk

[SolidIcewx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...northern IN...southern Lower MI...northwest OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...

Valid 181938Z - 182145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434 continues.

SUMMARY...Northern, fast-moving portion of a QLCS should progress across the rest of northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio through early evening. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a tornado or two will be possible. Downstream watch issuance expected by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a QLCS has been steadily progressing east around 45 kts with a history of estimated to measured gusts of 55-70 mph. This fast-moving portion of the line has likely outpaced stronger low-level shear across southwest IN, per comparison of VWX and IWX VWP data. Given largely veered surface winds downstream and recent HRRR guidance, an outflow-dominated line will likely persist as it spreads into southern Lower MI and northwest OH through early evening. Damaging winds should remain the primary hazard, with a tornado or two possible in any QLCS mesovortices across northern IN.
 

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Might have to throw the "d" word out looking at that line in Western IN. I can see this thing easily going another 200 miles

Destructive severe warning

[sbnwx85]

The line is weakening a bit up here. I think it’s outrunning the best dynamics.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

??? to grr