June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models starting  to show a retrogression pattern. A piece of the Plains heat may try to come east in early July for a few days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But if the ridge axis remains west, then it won’t be nearly as hot as this last week was. That would follow the more historic precedent of no follow ups above 103° so soon. So maybe 95° to 99° for a day or two before the ridge pulls back. Then it’s possible that the WAR retrogrades in mid to late July with more 95° to 100° heat here. But hopefully nothing as strong as we just saw in late June. 

Didn't 1966 have multiple 100+ degree heatwaves in quick succession? Based on the records, I counted three of them in less than 4 weeks.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Beautiful collection of photos. There is so much Brooklyn history there going back to the Dutch settlement. The neighborhoods from around Prospect Park back to through your area up to Williamsburg contain some of the most sough-after urban real estate in the United States. I was able to find a great old photo from the Blizzard of 1888.

https://www.brownstoner.com/history/blizzard-1888-new-york-brooklyn-snow-storm-history-environmental-subway/

 

Out in the snow in Cobble Hill, possibly Clinton Street near Amity Street. Photo via Brooklyn Public Library

 

 

I grew up near Prospect Park, and spent my weekends playing frisbee in there growing up :-)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models starting  to show a retrogression pattern. A piece of the Plains heat may try to come east in early July for a few days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But if the ridge axis remains west, then it won’t be nearly as hot as this last week was. That would follow the more historic precedent of no follow ups above 103° so soon. So maybe 95° to 99° for a day or two before the ridge pulls back. Then it’s possible that the WAR retrogrades in mid to late July with more 95° to 100° heat here. But hopefully nothing as strong as we just saw in late June. 

it might as well hit 100, there is no perceptible difference between 98, 99, 100....

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models starting  to show a retrogression pattern. A piece of the Plains heat may try to come east in early July for a few days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. But if the ridge axis remains west, then it won’t be nearly as hot as this last week was. That would follow the more historic precedent of no follow ups above 103° so soon. So maybe 95° to 99° for a day or two before the ridge pulls back. Then it’s possible that the WAR retrogrades in mid to late July with more 95° to 100° heat here. But hopefully nothing as strong as we just saw in late June. 

I hope we don't repeat because that was brutal. Working outside was not fun those days, I don't know how southern folks deal with this 

[FPizz]

Top 5 low high in ttn yesterday (68) for the date. Impressive given where we were a few days ago.  

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope we don't repeat because that was brutal. Working outside was not fun those days, I don't know how southern folks deal with this 

There is no perceptible difference between 98, 99 and 100 degrees.  So if it's going to be 98-99 it might as well be 100.  105+ etc isn't necessary.

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 69 , stingy clouds helding on.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

There is no perceptible difference between 98, 99 and 100 degrees.  So if it's going to be 98-99 it might as well be 100.  105+ etc isn't necessary.

If we were a metric country we'd have our 32.2C days and 37.7 C days

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

If we were a metric country we'd have our 32.2C days and 37.7 C days

Indeed- that's why I cherished getting over 40C/104F on the 24th lol.

The other thing I like is how C and F are the same at -40 !!!!

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

70 / 69 , stingy clouds helding on.

it's brightening up now, Tony :-)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope we don't repeat because that was brutal. Working outside was not fun those days, I don't know how southern folks deal with this 

Yeah, working outside in that type of heat is brutal. I rode a few miles on the Long Beach Boardwalk back in July 1999 with 100° and a 75° dewpoint. It was pretty intense. But I actually enjoyed the 0° with 50 mph gusts in January 1985 more. 
 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, working outside in that type of heat is brutal. I rode a few miles on the Long Beach Boardwalk back in July 1999 with 100° and a 75° dewpoint. It was pretty intense. But I actually enjoyed the 0° with 50 mph gusts in January 1985 more. 
 

That was one of our last really great summers, the heat in 1999 almost matched 1953 in terms of longevity, truly a summer to treasure. I was disappointed that JFK only reached 100+ once (102 on the 5th), which is why I rank 2010 higher and completely unmatched (1966 had as many 100+ days but the heat didn't continue into August and September like it did in 2010.) However in terms of longevity of heatwaves 1999 is only exceeded by 1953. I don't believe it's a coincidence that we have an 11 year return period for the peak of extreme heat (1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010.) 

Of course if you want to feel cool, Chris, all you need to do is jump in the water

 

[donsutherland1]

While parts of the area await the sun's breaking through the clouds, here's a distribution of high temperatures based on New York City's climate record when the low temperature was 63°. The NBM forecast range is in red and the forecast value is dark brown.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

While parts of the area await the sun's breaking through the clouds, here's a distribution of high temperatures based on New York City's climate record when the low temperature was 63°. The NBM forecast range is in red and the forecast value is dark brown.

The sun is here and I see large patches of blue skies now Don :-)

[SACRUS]

 

Onshore has ceased a.  74 / 69 brightening skies

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 71 partly cloudy ish now

[Stormlover74]

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

The sun is here and I see large patches of blue skies now Don :-)

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

Yes. That's correct about 1925. 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

(in response to Don's chart of the distribution of highs after low of 63) ...

Probably the 63 "low" associated with the 95 in 1925 was at end of day as that heat wave ended, so it wasn't a case of 63 warming to 95, but 95 cooling down to 63? Not sure about that but it looks that way.

Urelated factoid, I recently updated a data base for NYC and found that the highest average temperature for the entire period of record occurs on July 18 for both max and min. (86, 70). 

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

Here's the data for 100° days:

Here's the distribution of 90°+ days, 100°+ days, and daily record highs:

[Roger Smith]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Also isn't there a whole week at the end of July when NYC has never hit 100 (I think it's July 24-30).

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). 

There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records. 

[SACRUS]

 

83 / 71 here

Partly cloudy

[SACRUS]

 

Hope these fizzle (CPA) otherwise about 3 - 6 hours for arrival if, assuming nothing else pops.

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's the for 100° days:

Here's the distribution of 90°+ days, 100°+ days, and daily record highs:

None on the 11th or 12th or in the entire 24-30 period which is very WEIRD.  Too bad the 31st broke the streak otherwise it would have been a clean sweep for every day in July after the 23rd lol.

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That is correct, in fact it has not even hit 99 F from July 24 to 28. (99F on July 29, 1949). 

There's a similar lull in August from 16th to 25th with highest value 97F and even more pronounced, records of only 92F and 94F on Aug 23rd-24th. After August 25th the records generally pick up considerably although most are in a few years like 1948, 53, 73 and later 1881. Perhaps these are expectable random variations that will fill in after 250-300 years of records. 

I know about the other historic summers but what late hot streak did we have in 1973? Thats my birth year lol

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

83 / 71 here

Partly cloudy

it's been completely sunny and hot here for an hour now, going to turn on my a/c soon.

[Roger Smith]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know about the other historic summers but what late hot streak did we have in 1973? Thats my birth year lol

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

It was very similar to 1953 in timing and duration but not quite as intense, highs were often 95 to 98 and failed to break records but it was very hot (I was actually in NYC for one day during it, on a road trip). The records it did set were ties for max and min on 30th (98/78, ties with 1953 for the max and 2018 for the min). So it has the highest daily mean for Aug 30th. 

It's interesting how we do not have late season intense heat anymore (at least to my knowledge)-- we did have 95 in October here a few years ago (at JFK).  But our latest 98 in recent memory was in September 2010 and our latest 99 was on September 11, 1983 wasn't it?

Our latest 100 goes all the way back to September 7, 1881 (actually 101.) It was NYC's first 100 ever recorded and also its latest.

 

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Hope these fizzle (CPA) otherwise about 3 - 6 hours for arrival if, assuming nothing else pops.

 

We could use the rain, looks dry and warm upcoming