June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[dWave]

78 dew 71 start to the day

[MJO812]

Im already sweating

 

 

 

Who the hell likes this crap?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Im already sweating

 

 

 

Who the hell likes this crap?

people who love blue skies and sunshine.

find an a/c to stand near 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Next area of clouds already in WPA with an arrival of between 1 - 2 PM we'll see if its more scattered clouds or if storms develop later this PM.  Off to the races the next 4 - 6 hours. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (1954)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 56 (2022)
JFK: 54 (1965)

 

Historical:

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis."

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum)

 

1934: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in Louisiana, then moved northeast, passing over northern Delaware, Philadelphia, PA and central New Jersey as an extratropical storm, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Philadelphia received 1.70 inches of rainfall on the 18th into this date, and New York City had 1.93 inches on this date, a daily record. As the storm passed over Philadelphia, the pressure dropped to 29.40 inches of mercury.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum)

 

1944: Hailstorm caused great destruction to fruit crop in Winchester, Virginia.

1964: A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois, followed by two more consecutive lines passing shortly after dawn. The resulting hailstorms caused damage in excess of $9 million dollars, as hailstones the size of grapefruits brought havoc to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as 5 inches of rain over an 8-hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: The Arkansas River crested at 15.68 feet at Dodge City, KS. Heavy rains in Eastern Colorado combined with three broken dams started the torrent of water which flowed through Colorado and Kansas. The river rose seven feet in 15 minutes between 9 AM and 9:15 AM. The deepest part of south Dodge was about 7 feet under water. The deep water created other problems, when gas regulators were covered, pressure built up in the gas lines and Dodge City was rocked by explosions. Total urban losses in Dodge City and Wilroads Gardens were estimated at nearly $3.8 million dollars, including damages to 615 residences and 155 businesses. 24 Kansas counties were declared flood disasters. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita)

2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported

 

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

Didn't Agnes also make a landfall near JFK Tony?

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis." <<< this must have been an F3 at least

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum) <<< this sounds like an F3 too

 

also wow, you don't see stuff like this in this region anymore.

 

and this must have been the peak of the heat in 1994, July and August were not this hot for us (but very hot for Philly.) Not historical like 1993, but just a step below it.

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

am rushing so won't make a final decision for 2-3 100F days M-W KEWR area (interior NJ in our subforum).  Probably a pretty good chance for NYC to get at least one but want to rereview at 9P. 

Heat wave officially begins interior NJ Suun, possibly touching 90 Sat). HW ends sometime between Thu-Sat next week dependent on backdoor.

 

No time to assess SVR.  Use among your tools SPC and BOM.  

Have a day, 

Walt

 

Only caveat on Sunday is clouds (debris) from the MCS to the north and any storms that make it south, but agree Sunday hits 90 as it should clear out and be hot enough in gerneral (overall) especially in the hot spots and the more south you go.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

Didn't Agnes also make a landfall near JFK Tony?

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis." <<< this must have been an F3 at least

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum) <<< this sounds like an F3 too

 

also wow, you don't see stuff like this in this region anymore.

 

and this must have been the peak of the heat in 1994, July and August were not this hot for us (but very hot for Philly.) Not historical like 1993, but just a step below it.

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)

 

 

Agnes

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Agnes

 

Yes, it did make landfall here, I wonder why no one ever talks about that, was it a minimal tropical storm when it was making landfall here?

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 

 

also wow, you don't see stuff like this in this region anymore.

 

and this must have been the peak of the heat in 1994, July and August were not this hot for us (but very hot for Philly.) Not historical like 1993, but just a step below it.

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)

 

1994 continued hot in July at EWR

16 90 degree days (99,98)
4 89 degree days
Overall +3.6 for the month

 

Aug was near normal

[gravitylover]

I remember Agnes. She messed up the end of my first grade school year.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1994 continued hot in July at EWR

16 90 degree days (99,98)
4 89 degree days
Overall +3.6 for the month

 

Aug was near normal

so similar to 1993 but of a somewhat lower magnitude? That was one of those summers that was hotter the further west you went unlike 1993 which was hot throughout everywhere, my favorite summer before 2010. 1994 was more like 1988.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

I remember Agnes. She messed up the end of my first grade school year.

were you living down here back then? I remember you said you lived on Long Island growing up I think.

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, it did make landfall here, I wonder why no one ever talks about that, was it a minimal tropical storm when it was making landfall here?

 

Major flooding in PA/NY state.

 

https://nyheritage.org/exhibits/agnes-flood

[Sundog]

Have I ever told you how much of a POS the GFS is?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

this really is more of a tropical rainforest type of climate, in that kind of climate, you do not get extremely high temperatures because most of the heat is absorbed by the excess moisture in the atmosphere (which creates those high rainfall events later on in the summer.)  Maybe this predominant sea breeze is a function of climate change, as the planet seeks to balance out the differences between land and ocean?

Yeah, spots like JFK have more subtropical dew points during the summers now which are similar to those experienced over the Delmarva 30 years ago. So the subtropical zones have been shifting north. We have seen this shift with winter snowfall and temperatures also.

 

[SACRUS]

We gain 0.05 seconds of daylight tomorrow to make the longest day of the year at 15H:06M 

[SACRUS]

 

Just hit 80 / 73 here  

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, spots like JFK have more subtropical dew points during the summers now which are similar to those experienced over the Delmarva 30 years ago. So the subtropical zones have been shifting north. We have seen this shift with winter snowfall and temperatures also.

 

I also think there is a direct connection between seabreeze summers and winters in which the coast gets less snow, the processes are very similar.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

We gain 0.05 seconds of daylight tomorrow to make the longest day of the year at 15H:06M 

tomorrow is the first day of summer around 10:30 am? Just in time!

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Have I ever told you how much of a POS the GFS is?

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, dWave said:

Yeah its bad, and last time I pass by there it was considerably worse than this.  You can walk right past it but its so hidden now you may no idea anything is there unless you are really trying to find it.

Just standing there compared to being out and about where people actually live and its undeniable that it is an absurd representation of NYC.

Prior to the NWS leaving 30 Rock back in the early 1990s, they really did a great job maintaining the site at the castle. I actually got to meet the forecasters on a trip to the office back in the 80s. Granted they had plenty of struggles with vandals especially during the 1970s since the equipment was out in the open. So I guess they made the decision that hiding the equipment under the trees in 1995 was the way to go. Even though it has resulted in the high temperatures running 2° to perhaps 4° cooler on warm sunny days then they did when the ASOS was further from the trees. This is why the NWS didn’t like substituting LGA for NYC when they were waiting for the new equipment to arrive in the park. Since they are quoted in this NYT article stating that LGA used to run cooler than NYC in those days when the trees weren’t an issue. This is the opposite of what has happened in the last 30 years. 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Prior to the NWS leaving 30 Rock back in the early 1990s, they really did a great job maintaining the site at the castle. I actually got to meet the forecasters on a trip to the office back in the 80s. Granted they had plenty of struggles with vandals especially during the 1970s since the equipment was out in the open. So I guess they made the decision that hiding the equipment under the trees in 1995 was the way to go. Even though it has resulted in the high temperatures running 2° to perhaps 4° cooler on warm sunny days then they did when the ASOS was further from the trees. This is why the NWS didn’t like substituting LGA for NYC when they were waiting for the new equipment to arrive in the park. Since they are quoted in this NYT article stating that LGA used to run cooler than NYC in those days when the trees weren’t an issue. This is the opposite of what has happened in the last 30 years. 

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

 

The solution is to average out NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA and then you get the full of range of weather in New York City (which covers 5 boroughs). I believe LGA runs too hot now, look at how elevated their lows are compared to everyone else and it has the highest concentration of traffic now, which is much worse now than it was during the 30s-50s period when NYC was hotter (as was JFK.)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

Do you think at least partially transferring the NWS/NOAA functions to private ownership would help matters? Perhaps we can get a rich billionaire who cares about climate and weather to fund a supercomputing system sufficiently powerful to run 4dVar?

I'm being ironic, I don't think any of them care, but the funding has to come from somewhere and we have a few billionaires funding space trips so why not get them to invest in climate and weather too? Note how NASA has partnerships with these private space companies, maybe NWS and NOAA need to do the same thing?  Public funding only gets you so far and we are in the era when people want to spend less and save more, so maybe we are on the way to privatizing everything now and shifting the burden to those who can afford it....

 

[dieselbug]

24 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

We gain 0.05 seconds of daylight tomorrow to make the longest day of the year at 15H:06M 

I think we have another week of slightly later sunsets. (Here in Cherry Hill it peaks at 8:32pm)

My wife, who is hoping for permanent EST would see a sunrise time as early as 4:30am! 

I know many wish to see permanent Standard time but I personally love the late sunsets. 

 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The solution is to average out NYC, EWR, JFK, LGA and then you get the full of range of weather in New York City (which covers 5 boroughs). I believe LGA runs too hot now, look at how elevated their lows are compared to everyone else and it has the highest concentration of traffic now, which is much worse now than it was during the 30s-50s period when NYC was hotter (as was JFK.)

 

 

Average all of those locations?? They are miles away from each other. I find microclimates and tracking weather interesting and averaging among multiple locations kills that. 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, dieselbug said:

I think we have another week of slightly later sunsets. (Here in Cherry Hill it peaks at 8:32pm)

My wife, who is hoping for permanent EST would see a sunrise time as early as 4:30am! 

I know many wish to see permanent Standard time but I personally love the late sunsets. 

 

Yes the miniscule loss in daylight is attributed to sunrise till Jul 9th when minimal slow decrease in sunset begins.

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Part of the issue lies in the initialization scheme. The top models (ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET) all use the 4dVar initialization. Some have used it for more than a decade. Despite its demonstrated benefits, it was never integrated in any of the GFS upgrades perhaps because the U.S. lacks sufficient computing capacity. All other things being equal, that puts the model at a disadvantage. Its resolution is also more coarse than that for the leading models. With the disinvestment in the NWS and NOAA now underway, that won't change anytime soon.

How does the EURO AI work? It's not as hot as the regular Euro and focuses the 100 degree heat over NJ instead of taking it east through NYC and the coast. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Average all of those locations?? They are miles away from each other. I find microclimates and tracking weather interesting and averaging among multiple locations kills that. 

Possibly, but otherwise these weather *wars* will continue.  If we could come up with a single number to describe the city it would dampen down biases any one individual station might have (NYC poorly sited, LGA/EWR running too hot, JFK seabreeze interference, etc.)

 

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, dieselbug said:

I think we have another week of slightly later sunsets. (Here in Cherry Hill it peaks at 8:32pm)

My wife, who is hoping for permanent EST would see a sunrise time as early as 4:30am! 

I know many wish to see permanent Standard time but I personally love the late sunsets. 

 

Your wife needs to be "reeducated" lol

Permanent EDT is the way to go

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Yes the miniscule loss in daylight is attributed to sunrise till Jul 9th when minimal slow decrease in sunset begins.

The longest day isn't really on the summer solstice, it's different days in different places depending on your latitude and some other factors. For us it's usually June 26th.