SnowenOutThere Posted Monday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:48 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this Same… are you staying northern obx or going more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 10:57 PM 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this Hope for a push west into Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:30 PM 40 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Same… are you staying northern obx or going more south. Very northern end. 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hope for a push west into Georgia Sounds good. I can deal with a day or two of rain, but need some dry weather after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 02:21 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:21 AM 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Very northern end. Sounds good. I can deal with a day or two of rain, but need some dry weather after that. 18z wasn’t really your friend but it did keep most of the bad wx to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 01:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:45 PM No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:52 PM 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? Our annual up the bay run! 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Our annual up the bay run! Models love spitting out stuff that happens once every 500 years. They do it all winter, but we're use to that lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Hmmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rollenwiese Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM 1 hour ago, frd said: Hmmm As as casual follower, I am trying to understand what I'm to infer from this? An environment with low wind shear more favorable to development or tracking of a storm near to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:23 PM 33 minutes ago, rollenwiese said: As as casual follower, I am trying to understand what I'm to infer from this? An environment with low wind shear more favorable to development or tracking of a storm near to us? Polar jet far to the North, with High pressure to the North of us West to East, lessens the possibility of a re-curve "if" a hurricane were to near the US SE Coast. Depends on the strength of the Bermuda High as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 05:03 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:03 PM 18 minutes ago, frd said: Polar jet far to the North, with High pressure to the North of us West to East, lessens the possibility of a re-curve "if" a hurricane were to near the US SE Coast. Depends on the strength of the Bermuda High as well. That's exactly it. If you had a more displaced jet you 1) open the door to more shear being imparted on a TC, which would lower potential and 2) more on point with this subject, you make it much harder for an "easy" recurve into the open Atlantic because the jet being displaced leads to the subtropical high being displaced--"blocking" a storm from easily recurving OTS depending on in-situ conditions (like is at TC following another into a weakness in Atlantic ridging). So think of it this way--there are always going to be weaker troughs/fronts that can serve as a kicker, but with a jet that is displaced so far to the north you get ridging that can steer waves further west into the Caribbean (where a landfall is all but guaranteed) or the southwest Atlantic, where a ridge could keep a wave/TC plowing west or a weaker trough/front could turn something north/northwest along the East Coast. This is part of the reason why this seems like more of an EC season, at least through the end of the month. The seasonal steering pattern has been highly favorable for US strikes, and the background environment with ENSO implies that this kind of predominant ridge/trough pattern could last into the peak of the season. (image below from Webb) I chose these time stamps for 10 days out, but this is an enormous signal for carrying anything that develops in the Atlantic west, provided it doesn't develop in the central Atlantic subtropics. That's why you see such a robust signal from the GFS/Euro operational guidance. There's a massive ridge and no currently modeled weaknesses to turn something OTS. If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:05 PM 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble. https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1952745028704420168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Now all that said, you have to get the activity in the first place. The tropical Atlantic, while probably becoming more favorable in the coming days with the MJO change, still isn't a lock for high end activity. There's still work to do with instability. and this is the time of year where SAL still lurks But compared to prior years, this actually doesn't look bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:15 PM 12z guidance (and going back to overnight runs) mostly want to washout the SE coast tropical low or pull it northeast out to sea. Either option looks good to me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:51 PM 20 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this I’m going to Hilton Head from Thursday-Wednesday. Looks kinda bleh most of the time with that tropical system possibly threatening after we’re gone. We were down there last year for Debby, so I don’t really care to do it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago 21 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12z guidance (and going back to overnight runs) mostly want to washout the SE coast tropical low or pull it northeast out to sea. Either option looks good to me! Still looking good for OTS. Goes to show how easily a steering pattern look can flip on a dime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still looking good for OTS. Goes to show how easily a steering pattern look can flip on a dime. Yeah the forecast for the whole week has improved dramatically in the last couple days. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago Despite the NHC taking the odds of development of the low off the SE coast back down to 30%, there has been some more convection near the center and it is for now at least in a lower shear environment. Homebrew always piques my interest. Meanwhile Dexter continues churning in the open Atlantic and the wave that was tied into the monsoon trough out in the Atlantic is now Invest 96L with some good convection firing--though dry air is evident on satellite just to its north. It looks like our SE coast low helps create a weakness in the Atlantic ridge that keeps that one out to sea. At least for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Despite the NHC taking the odds of development of the low off the SE coast back down to 30%, there has been some more convection near the center and it is for now at least in a lower shear environment. Homebrew always piques my interest. Meanwhile Dexter continues churning in the open Atlantic and the wave that was tied into the monsoon trough out in the Atlantic is now Invest 96L with some good convection firing--though dry air is evident on satellite just to its north. It looks like our SE coast low helps create a weakness in the Atlantic ridge that keeps that one out to sea. At least for now... Backloaded season https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1953112580047946007 Ben Noll @BenNollWeather 8h New ECMWF velocity potential outlook for the heart of hurricane season hints at the potential for a backloaded season, with forcing over Africa and the Atlantic during October. September *could* start with conditions that are less conducive to storms before ramping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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