2025 Tropical Tracking Thread

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this

 Same… are you staying northern obx or going more south.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this

Hope for a push west into Georgia 

[WxUSAF]

40 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 Same… are you staying northern obx or going more south.

Very northern end. 

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hope for a push west into Georgia 

Sounds good. I can deal with a day or two of rain, but need some dry weather after that. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Very northern end. 

Sounds good. I can deal with a day or two of rain, but need some dry weather after that. 

18z wasn’t really your friend but it did keep most of the bad wx to the east. 

[dailylurker]

No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? 

GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week? 

Our annual up the bay run!

[dailylurker]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Our annual up the bay run!

Models love spitting out stuff that happens once every 500 years. They do it all winter, but we're use to that lol

[frd]

 

Hmmm

 

 

 

[rollenwiese]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Hmmm

 

 

 

As as casual follower, I am trying to understand what I'm to infer from this? 

An environment with low wind shear more favorable to development or tracking of a storm near to us?

[frd]

33 minutes ago, rollenwiese said:

As as casual follower, I am trying to understand what I'm to infer from this? 

An environment with low wind shear more favorable to development or tracking of a storm near to us?

Polar jet far to the North, with High pressure to the North of us West to East, lessens the possibility of a re-curve "if" a hurricane were to near the US SE Coast. Depends on the strength of the Bermuda High as well.  

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Polar jet far to the North, with High pressure to the North of us West to East, lessens the possibility of a re-curve "if" a hurricane were to near the US SE Coast. Depends on the strength of the Bermuda High as well.  

That's exactly it. If you had a more displaced jet you 1) open the door to more shear being imparted on a TC, which would lower potential and 2) more on point with this subject, you make it much harder for an "easy" recurve into the open Atlantic because the jet being displaced leads to the subtropical high being displaced--"blocking" a storm from easily recurving OTS depending on in-situ conditions (like is at TC following another into a weakness in Atlantic ridging). 

So think of it this way--there are always going to be weaker troughs/fronts that can serve as a kicker, but with a jet that is displaced so far to the north you get ridging that can steer waves further west into the Caribbean (where a landfall is all but guaranteed) or the southwest Atlantic, where a ridge could keep a wave/TC plowing west or a weaker trough/front could turn something north/northwest along the East Coast.

This is part of the reason why this seems like more of an EC season, at least through the end of the month. The seasonal steering pattern has been highly favorable for US strikes, and the background environment with ENSO implies that this kind of predominant ridge/trough pattern could last into the peak of the season. (image below from Webb)

I chose these time stamps for 10 days out, but this is an enormous signal for carrying anything that develops in the Atlantic west,  provided it doesn't develop in the central Atlantic subtropics. That's why you see such a robust signal from the GFS/Euro operational guidance. There's a massive ridge and no currently modeled weaknesses to turn something OTS. If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble. 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If things got active in the Atlantic in the last 2/3 of August someone will be in trouble. 

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1952745028704420168

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Now all that said, you have to get the activity in the first place. The tropical Atlantic, while probably becoming more favorable in the coming days with the MJO change, still isn't a lock for high end activity. There's still work to do with instability. 

and this is the time of year where SAL still lurks

But compared to prior years, this actually doesn't look bad  

[WxUSAF]

12z guidance (and going back to overnight runs) mostly want to washout the SE coast tropical low or pull it northeast out to sea. Either option looks good to me!

[mattie g]

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ll going to OBX on Saturday so I’d rather not do all this

I’m going to Hilton Head from Thursday-Wednesday. Looks kinda bleh most of the time with that tropical system possibly threatening after we’re gone.

We were down there last year for Debby, so I don’t really care to do it again.