2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

It will because it won't meet the 5 consecutive months at or blow -0.5 criteria, but I considered it a La Niña, anyway....per MEI and RONI.

Really with the lone exception of last weekend, we have been in a dry pattern since the end of November. A very persistent cold pattern for sure but also an overall dry one 

[donsutherland1]

The EPS is suggesting that the PNA+ regime that commenced is approaching its end. Moreover, a WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern will develop near February 10th +/- a few days. The evolution of this pattern will very likely mark the end of the severely cold pattern that has gripped the eastern third of the CONUS and seen multiple waves of Arctic air masses sweep into the East. It will likely also dent the persistently warm pattern that has dominated in parts of the West, at least for a time.  The West will probably see a resumption of the warmth during the closing 7-10 days of February. The outlook for the eastern third is a more uncertain.

A WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern is typically a milder pattern, but not exceptionally warm one. Were the AO to go positive, the probability of more significant warmth would open up.

Finally, there is the complication of shortening wave lengths that will increasingly become a factor mid-month and beyond. As wave lengths shorten, teleconnections lose their predictive skill. Instead, synoptic factors that can only be forecast at shorter lead times play a more prominent role.

[EastonSN+]

So assuming we are still on track for March blocking:

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

There is going to be a brief warmup but the month should end up cold.

That was the original line of thinking most had a few days ago before these new warmer trends, but now I’m not sure any region of the country ends up that cold relative to average compared to Dec and Jan. EPS is still pretty warm through the end of the run with a fairly strong -PNA signal, AI models are showing a similar pattern as well.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So assuming we are still on track for March blocking:

Not necessarily, still too early to say imo.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

edit 8:28AM: I can’t even recall the last day NG dropped as much. I think it has and probably more but I don’t know when off the top of my head. I’ll try to find out. Of course, it remains to be seen how low it will be when it closes for the session as there could always be an intra session deadcat bounce.

 Meanwhile, evidently Phil saw his shadow meaning 6 more weeks of winter. But even that couldn’t give NG a bounce lol.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%! I can’t even recall the last day it dropped so much.

I know you didn’t ask me, but personally I think NN overall for the Northeast as I believe the first week will be the coldest week relative to average before a warming trend commences afterward. I’m not saying record warmth necessarily, but perhaps a more subdued warmer than average pattern depending on how much blocking we see and other teleconnections, etc. My guess is the warmest anomalies end up being near the Plains this month.

[LakePaste25]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Disagree with this being the mean pattern. I think it’ll average out to a -PNA. That being said, it may not be an overwhelmingly negative PNA. -AO blocking to start out, and potential -EPO reloading the second half of the month should mitigate this. Not seeing a Feb 2018/2023/2024 style torch.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%! I can’t even recall the last day it dropped so much.

The NG market seems to be surfing the CFSv2's long-range outlook.

From January 31:

From February 1:

The moderation starting around the 10th is real. The consistent theme is that the southern and central plains/West will remain generally warmer than normal but there could be a 7-10-day cooler period in the West. Wave lengths will be shortening beyond mid-month, complicating things and enhancing the level of uncertainty. I don't think either a mild or cold outcome in the East beyond let's say February 20th is a slam dunk. I'd still give greater weight to the ECMWF weeklies for a possible return of cooler weather, not necessarily severely cold weather, as there are some hints that the EPO and WPO could go negative sometime after mid-month.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

BN, I'm getting March 2015 vibes. The first week being well below average, a continuation of the previous month, and set the tone for the month, but I feel like a pattern change is coming, with the string of below average months coming to an end soon. Something tells me March is going to be above average (like April 2015), and April is going to be a near record warm month (like May 2015).

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

BN, I'm getting March 2015 vibes. The first week being well below average, a continuation of the previous month, and set the tone for the month, but I feel like a pattern change is coming, with the string of below average months coming to an end soon. Something tells me March is going to be above average (like April 2015), and April is going to be a near record warm month (like May 2015).

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Not necessarily, still too early to say imo.

Not really. I'd be stunned if we didn't see blocking in March.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

We had April torches in 2017 and 2019 (those were two of the warmest Aprils ever), as well as the first half of April 2023 (before we turned cold, which lasted until the end of June).

Thing about February is that it's only 28 days. The cold beginning is going to eat a good chunk of the month. For the warmer days to eventually outweigh the colder days, we're going to need to string together some record-breaking, 70+ heat. I just don't see it happening.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

IMO, the Wbell anomalies are too cold. If one moves up one category (e.g., -5 to -7 becomes -3 to -5), one will probably be closer to the final values.

Having said that, the Northeast will very likely finish below normal. With the expected readings through February 14th, one would need a top 5-10 warm finish just to bring the anomalies to normal. So far, none of the guidance (even the CFSv2) is showing sustained warmth of that magnitude.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

edit 8:28AM: I can’t even recall the last day NG dropped as much. I think it has and probably more but I don’t know when off the top of my head. I’ll try to find out. Of course, it remains to be seen how low it will be when it closes for the session as there could always be an intra session deadcat bounce.

 Meanwhile, evidently Phil saw his shadow meaning 6 more weeks of winter. But even that couldn’t give NG a bounce lol.

February as a whole is extremely likely to be another below normal temp month. That’s pretty much guaranteed at this point. As far as that extreme Wxbell/JB forecast? Done for clicks and subscription money from the weenies

[GaWx]

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

What month is this future's contract for? March or April?

[TheClimateChanger]

Looks like January came in around +0.82F on PRISM's dataset. That will snap our streak of 4 consecutive Top 10 warm months for the CONUS - last 2 being Top 5.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What month is this future's contract for? March or April?

I think that’s March.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like January came in around +0.82F on PRISM's dataset. That will snap our streak of 4 consecutive Top 10 warm months for the CONUS - last 2 being Top 5.

PRISM has the winter to date around +2.16F. But I know from Ben Noll that this was the 5th warmest since 1981 on PRISM, so it must have 2015-2016 a little cooler than NOAA. We'll have to wait another week or so for the official numbers.

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

BAM retracts the call that "winter won't be over any time soon" and discusses how the wall to wall favorable pattern this month has really broken down 

 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natgas’ plunge today is even more historic with it down an unbelievable >26% now!!

@Stormchaserchuck1

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available.

In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide.

Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers:

IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc.

Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010:

#1: 2021

#2: 2010

#3: 2019

 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available.

In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide.

Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers:

IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc.

Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010:

#1: 2021

#2: 2010

#3: 2019

 

 

 

Wow! Those were legitimate cold months. Surprised 2015 isn't on that short list as well!

[TheClimateChanger]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

@donsutherland1, what do you think of this projection? When I see a week-long, ensemble average showing an areal anomaly of +3.66F over that big of an area - keep in mind, it's not averaging just the CONUS, but that entire map inset - that looks significant to me. Like possible record-breaking warmth in places.

It's impressive, especially when one considers that the cool anomalies over the Atlantic bring down the areal average. My guess is that near record/record warmth could be possible in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Those were legitimate cold months. Surprised 2015 isn't on that short list as well!

February 2015 had exceptional warmth in the western third of the CONUS.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not sure what data was used to for the run-up in the price, much less the plunge. I suspect that the dramatic shift in the CFSv2 started the sell-off. The latest ECWMF weeklies were not yet available.

In the larger scheme of things, this was not looking like a Top 3 coldest February since 2010 nationwide.

Using AmWx's Top 10 forecasters from 2025, here were the expected February numbers:

IMO, that consensus consistently beats most of what is posted on Social Media for long-range ideas, perhaps because there is no incentive to hype for clicks, views, etc.

Here are the Top 5 coldest Februaries since 2010:

#1: 2021

#2: 2010

#3: 2019

 

 

 

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are if anything even worse than yesterday’s if you want a cold pattern in the E US. Also, the 10 mb has pulled up somewhat on the mid Feb reversal chance.

 Cue the folks that say the EW shouldn’t run daily lol, which is irrelevant unless you’d prefer to keep your head in the sand:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, they're definitely a step back (continuing the trend from recent days). I actually prefer the daily data, as one can better evaluate what's happening than if one had to make guesses over 3- and 4-day intervals.

Don, Do you mean the WxBell 850 mb maps? What daily data are you referring to? Be careful with their 2m temp maps because I’ve been saying they’re colder than ECMWF’s in house data.