2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I really don’t understand why people are saying it’s been a cool start to spring. You’d either have to be trolling or have zero concept of weather to genuinely believe that.

Not one person is saying that .

[MJO812]

Same pattern 

Insane how warm the west will continue to be.

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

I really don’t understand why people are saying it’s been a cool start to spring. You’d either have to be trolling or have zero concept of weather to genuinely believe that.

What people are saying that spring has started cool? This is near the warmest 3/1-12 on record for many. I was actually waiting for spring to get started being that it’s been like summer in the SE. Finally, it cooled off since yesterday.

[cmillzz]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe a wintry end to winter for many but defintely a cool start to Spring.

numbnuts right here is saying that @GaWx

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

numbnuts right here is saying that @GaWx

There’s no need to call him that. I gave a like to Anthony’s post saying cool start to spring because he was replying to my post showing a trend toward a lower NAO in week 2, in other words starting with calendar spring rather than met. spring. Y’all are talking about different things.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

numbnuts right here is saying that @GaWx

I said maybe. Learn how to read snowman19s cousin.

[JACKASS]

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I said maybe. Learn how to read snowman19s cousin.

On 11/28/2025 at 9:16 AM, MJO812 said:

Phase 8 for December 

Prognosticator of prognosticators.

LOL

[cmillzz]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I said maybe. Learn how to read snowman19s cousin.

you said "definitely a cool start to spring". really hope you're trolling, otherwise you just appear to be mentally challenged in some capacity.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, JACKASS said:

 

Prognosticator of prognosticators.

LOL

And yet JACKASS i was more right with my calls than a few on here.

Move along 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

you said "definitely a cool start to spring". really hope you're trolling, otherwise you just appear to be mentally challenged in some capacity.

You are definitely snowman19  or related.  Another troll.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What a ridge in the West and Midwest!

 

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a ridge in the West and Midwest!

 

Alot of records will be broken in the west.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of records will be broken in the west.

Salt Lake City, UT has 0.1" snow for the year. #2 lowest for them on record is in the 20's. That's going to hold through at least the 3rd week of March. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Salt Lake City, UT has 0.1" snow for the year. #2 lowest for them on record is in the 20's. That's going to hold through at least the 3rd week of March. 

They have 3 inches. Average is 56 inches .

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Ok, I saw a different graph at another time. 

[snowman19]

As of yesterday, we now have a September sun angle. Climo is now fully in spring mode and length of day increases exponentially this month…..

[GaWx]

No BN signal in E US:

[GaWx]

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2:

NAO just 3 days ago:

 

Yesterday:

 

Today:

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But NAO/AO continues to trend negative prior to that for week 2:

NAO just 3 days ago:

 

Yesterday:

 

Today:

AO

[GaWx]

 -NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE:

4 days ago:

 

Now:

[cmillzz]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What a ridge in the West and Midwest!

 

You can see the huge temp gradient in Wisconsin as a result of the big snowstorm, though I wonder if it’s being overdone to an extent because it should melt relatively quickly.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 -NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE:

4 days ago:

 

Now:

Not shocking with the MJO and teleconnections.

[snowfan789]

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

They have 3 inches. Average is 56 inches .

Thanks for continuing to keep this on the radar. Truly astonishing to consider the extent to which warm and snowless records have been smashed lately in much of the West, with more to come in light of the upcoming heatwave. Huge margins. This is clearly the most notable weather statistic for the 2025-26 winter season. Even if you only care about your own backyard, the capacity of the now existing state of he Earth to exceed previous records ought to alarm you, as it is only a matter before it happens where you are too. Unbelievably (based on recorded history) warm and generally now bereft of snow out here in Colorado.

[bkviking]

On 3/14/2026 at 2:14 AM, MJO812 said:

They have 3 inches. Average is 56 inches .

4 of those winters were colder than normal in the northeast (88-89 the exception I believe) . Western ridge patterns? 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 -NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE:

4 days ago:

 

Now:

Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those depicted negative departures are not actually “cold”

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those depicted negative departures are not actually “cold”

Guidance has also backed off on the blocking a bit.

[roardog]

7 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Thanks for continuing to keep this on the radar. Truly astonishing to consider the extent to which warm and snowless records have been smashed lately in much of the West, with more to come in light of the upcoming heatwave. Huge margins. This is clearly the most notable weather statistic for the 2025-26 winter season. Even if you only care about your own backyard, the capacity of the now existing state of he Earth to exceed previous records ought to alarm you, as it is only a matter before it happens where you are too. Unbelievably (based on recorded history) warm and generally now bereft of snow out here in Colorado.

Not to downplay how bad things are out there right now because they are bad but it’s going to end up being a huge anomaly in the end. Didn’t you guys just have a string of good winters the last decade? I know 22-23 was cold in the west for sure. It’s not like some switch was flipped and now this is the “new normal”. When March 2012 happened over here after a warm and snowless winter, I read a couple of articles about how this was going to happen more because of climate change. Well, no surprise to me, nothing even close to that has happened since. Or how about the “permanent” Texas drought I kept reading about in the early 2010s? Next thing you knew it was flooding there.lol. 
 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Thanks for continuing to keep this on the radar. Truly astonishing to consider the extent to which warm and snowless records have been smashed lately in much of the West, with more to come in light of the upcoming heatwave. Huge margins. This is clearly the most notable weather statistic for the 2025-26 winter season. Even if you only care about your own backyard, the capacity of the now existing state of he Earth to exceed previous records ought to alarm you, as it is only a matter before it happens where you are too. Unbelievably (based on recorded history) warm and generally now bereft of snow out here in Colorado.

The last three winters have all ranked among the 10 warmest in the West:

A disproportionate share of top 10 warm winters in the West and nationwide have occurred since 2000:

The Great Lakes and Northeast were fortunate to have a cold and snowy (especially in the Northeast) winter. Such winters can still occur, and likely will occur for decades to come, but they have become notably less frequent on a nationwide basis. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Guidance has also backed off on the blocking a bit.

Slightly

[snowfan789]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

Not to downplay how bad things are out there right now because they are bad but it’s going to end up being a huge anomaly in the end. Didn’t you guys just have a string of good winters the last decade? I know 22-23 was cold in the west for sure. It’s not like some switch was flipped and now this is the “new normal”. When March 2012 happened over here after a warm and snowless winter, I read a couple of articles about how this was going to happen more because of climate change. Well, no surprise to me, nothing even close to that has happened since. Or how about the “permanent” Texas drought I kept reading about in the early 2010s? Next thing you knew it was flooding there.lol. 
 

That was a great winter for sure. It feels like a flip has switched during the subsequent three winters but that may or may end up proving true. However, the extent to which warm and snowless records have not just been broken but in many cases obliterated this year is ultimately more noteworthy, I believe, than a very good but not record smashing season four years ago now. That’s my take anyway.