2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon:

Post 18z gfs now

Its colder

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

And one again the warmth is shrinking. It will defintely get warm next week but thats because of the disruption to the PV.

Euro and Euro AI are cold and wintry because they have the MJO going into 8. 18z gfs just trended colder in the long range.

Here is the 18z Euro AI. Yes its 300 plus out but you get the idea. Winter is coming back.( defintely cold )

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon:

Based off a LR OP run?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

All the roll-forward stuff from the Winter was suggesting March would be near normal to below in the eastern 1/3 of the US.. seems to be beating the Euro weeklies in the long range

With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this:

2011-03-23	40	32	36.0	-8.8	29	0	0.87	T	0
2011-03-24	44	30	37.0	-8.2	28	0	0.09	1.0	1
2011-03-25	42	28	35.0	-10.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-26	40	26	33.0	-12.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-27	45	28	36.5	-9.7	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-28	45	26	35.5	-11.1	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-29	49	31	40.0	-6.9	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-30	53	36	44.5	-2.8	20	0	0.01	0.0	0
2011-03-31	43	37	40.0	-7.7	25	0	0.13	T	0

 

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Euro MJO goes into 8 and loops

[GaWx]

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies slightly less cold 3/16-22 than yesterday. That’s the only full chillyish week just like on yesterday’s run. So, no this isn’t in any way resembling a long period of cold for the E US although I’ll take whatever reprieve from the warmth that I can get!

[GaWx]

The Feb QBO at 30 mb came in about as expected, -23.13. So, here’s this winter’s QBO:

Dec -26.92
Jan -25.51
Feb -23.13 

 Well with near certainty it will be west/+ next winter and the west period could easily start as early as summer.

[GaWx]

DJF:

ONI -0.39

RONI -0.90

 So, RONI minus ONI has dropped back down to -0.51.

 Most non-BoM model projections are ONI rather than RONI. Thus, in order to estimate RONI, one obviously needs to subtract ~0.5 from the model progs.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^For the last 3 years (23-25), RONI has been -0.533c the value of ONI month-by-month (0.0 ONI is -0.53 RONI). Staying the same. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

February 2026 PDO is -1.01

This is the 74th straight month with a -PDO value.

[EastonSN+]

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 Wow, these last 2 days the GEFS has succumbed to much closer to the EPS of lower amp and faster going back to late Feb and is now actually at a little weaker amp than the EPS. For example, here were the 2/25 runs:

2/25 EPS: was still a bit faster than last 2 days of GEFS runs but not by nearly as much compared to earlier GEFS, the 2/25 run of which is just below this image

 

2/25 GEFS: like most of its recent runs prior to yesterday was much slower and stronger than last 2 GEFS runs!

 So, the EPS (JMA has been too weak) is easily going to win this battle of EPS vs GEFS.

[GaWx]

On 3/1/2026 at 10:04 AM, GaWx said:

 The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25.
 

 It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 35 sunspot averaged winters.

 Feb NAO actually came in at +0.68, which is a tad more positive than my likely range of +0.35 to +0.60. So, that means DJF came in at -0.11, which is within the neutral territory of -0.25 to +0.25. Thus, there still has yet to be a sub -0.25 DJF NAO with 35+ DJF averaged sunspots since 1980 meaning the long streak lives on.

Monthly NAO back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

SIDC monthly sunspots:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

[snowman19]

Well, we had the long awaited SSW, wind reversal and SPV split, however, it looks like the stratosphere and troposphere are going to stay completely uncoupled, no downwelling. Total disconnect between the two.

Frans Nucera: “There is no propagation,  the blocks are not created by the splitting of the polar vortex but by the troposphere which is not even reactive enough to create them under these conditions”:

[PhiEaglesfan712]