2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon:

Post 18z gfs now

Its colder

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

And one again the warmth is shrinking. It will defintely get warm next week but thats because of the disruption to the PV.

Euro and Euro AI are cold and wintry because they have the MJO going into 8. 18z gfs just trended colder in the long range.

Here is the 18z Euro AI. Yes its 300 plus out but you get the idea. Winter is coming back.( defintely cold )

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon:

Based off a LR OP run?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

All the roll-forward stuff from the Winter was suggesting March would be near normal to below in the eastern 1/3 of the US.. seems to be beating the Euro weeklies in the long range

With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this:

2011-03-23	40	32	36.0	-8.8	29	0	0.87	T	0
2011-03-24	44	30	37.0	-8.2	28	0	0.09	1.0	1
2011-03-25	42	28	35.0	-10.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-26	40	26	33.0	-12.9	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-27	45	28	36.5	-9.7	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-28	45	26	35.5	-11.1	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-29	49	31	40.0	-6.9	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2011-03-30	53	36	44.5	-2.8	20	0	0.01	0.0	0
2011-03-31	43	37	40.0	-7.7	25	0	0.13	T	0

 

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Euro MJO goes into 8 and loops

[GaWx]

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies slightly less cold 3/16-22 than yesterday. That’s the only full chillyish week just like on yesterday’s run. So, no this isn’t in any way resembling a long period of cold for the E US although I’ll take whatever reprieve from the warmth that I can get!

[GaWx]

The Feb QBO at 30 mb came in about as expected, -23.13. So, here’s this winter’s QBO:

Dec -26.92
Jan -25.51
Feb -23.13 

 Well with near certainty it will be west/+ next winter and the west period could easily start as early as summer.