2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

Great Lakes ice coverage peaked at 54.8% this week. After a near average winter in 2024-25, this winter ice coverage is solidly above the historical average around 40%. Superior is now half covered, with Erie nearly 100% covered. 

I went down to a park this afternoon where the Detroit River turns into Lake Erie. The ice is said to be 12-28" thick. 

Seeing an ice covered Erie is beautiful, even though that stops its Lake snow machine. 

https://bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/ice-grips-great-lakes-with-erie-nearly-fully-covered/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks very La Nina-like

[EastonSN+]

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest teleconnection forecasts have turned increasingly toward an AO+ as February moves into its final week.

If these forecasts are accurate, the return of colder weather, albeit not severely cold, following the February thaw that remains likely through February 20 +/- a few days could wind up being fairly short-lived. If so, even if February ends with cooler than normal temperatures as suggested by the ECMWF weeklies, a milder regime could rebuild during the opening week of March. Forecasting skill for the teleconnections is fairly low beyond 10-14 days, so it will probably be another 5-7 days before one can be more confident about the outcome for the first week of March.

Finally, the cooler weather with some opportunities for rainfall that will build into the Southwest by the middle of next week probably won't last more than a week. Warmer temperatures should return to close February.

Check out today’s GEFS AO prog, a pretty notable change downward vs yesterday:

[EastonSN+]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Check out today’s GEFS AO prog, a pretty notable change downward vs yesterday:

[MJO812]

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

[MJO812]

Same pattern continues with the northeast 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

 

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

 

The EPO also has a stronger corrleation to temps in the Eastern US than the WPO. We would need a stronger -WPO to neutralize any effects an +EPO might have IMO.

[George001]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

Looks like a gradient pattern is setting up with waves along a boundary. 

[EastonSN+]

 

Should be innphase 8 by the 2nd week of March hopefully for one last good snow stretch.

[michsnowfreak]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Same pattern continues with the northeast 

Islip NY had 19 consecutive days with with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record. 

Detroit had 27 consecutive days with a low of 17° or colder, 4th longest stretch on record. 

It also seems very unusual for nyc to have such consistent snowpack. Of course i dont know nyc stats like i do Detroit. Im very disappointed in the lack of stats im seeing on here for nyc from the stat crowd; I guess only warm ones count. 

 

[GaWx]

Per ecmwf (not WxBell): Today’s Bleaklies are, indeed, on the bleak side for Mar in most of the E US though NE is NN.

[snowman19]

On 2/13/2026 at 6:42 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

 

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++ 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++ 

Yeah, super +EPO

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++ 

Didn't you predict a torch winter though.  Feb was supposed to torch too because it's a super Nina according to you. 

Instead Dec-Feb will be below normal temp wise with average snowfall, a 3+ week snow pack, a prolonged cold spell that rivaled 2015. I think after that everyone will be OK with a warm March. 

[snowman19]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Didn't you predict a torch winter though.  Feb was supposed to torch too because it's a super Nina according to you. 

Instead Dec-Feb will be below normal temp wise with average snowfall, a 3+ week snow pack, a prolonged cold spell that rivaled 2015. I think after that everyone will be OK with a warm March. 

Nope. As usual, you are dead wrong. Par for the course with you 

[EastonSN+]

We will have one last window the 2nd week of March.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Didn't you predict a torch winter though.  Feb was supposed to torch too because it's a super Nina according to you. 

Instead Dec-Feb will be below normal temp wise with average snowfall, a 3+ week snow pack, a prolonged cold spell that rivaled 2015. I think after that everyone will be OK with a warm March. 

Yes he did. He busted all winter.

He might finally be right here with March .

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes he did. He busted all winter.

He might finally be right here with March .

Show me where I predicted a super La Niña or a blowtorch you utter clown. Remember your epic bust with MJO phase 8 for 30 days back in December? 
 

@MJO812 Enjoy the rain this coming week 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Show me where I predicted a super La Niña or a blowtorch you utter clown. Remember your epic bust with MJO phase 8 for 30 days back in December? 

People know you are a joke. No need to bump anything since there is alot. Remember all my good predictions? Your warmth never happened like usual.

Anyway winter is winding down. Maybe 1 last storm next week then a warmup . I dont count winter over until late March.

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People know you are a joke. No need to bump anything since there is alot. Remember all my good predictions? Your warmth never happened like usual.

Anyway winter is winding down. Maybe 1 last storm next week then a warmup . I dont count winter over until late March.

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, bncho said:

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else 

Hes right about it but that was forecasted to happen which never did.  Other than that, everything was spot on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strongly agree with Ben Knoll giving March 2018 and 2023 shoutouts here, we are primed for more PV antics and some stormy times.

https://x.com/i/status/2023034565619585286

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 2/13/2026 at 9:32 AM, GaWx said:

Check out today’s GEFS AO prog, a pretty notable change downward vs yesterday:

Buy.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else 

 

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes right about it but that was forecasted to happen which never did.  Other than that, everything was spot on.

Anthony absolutely did but at least he’s not denying it. And he’s absolutely right about it being forecasted (several times in fact). Here’s one of several ext-EPS runs forecasting a 30+ straight day phase 8: this one (12/3 ext-EPS run) had it at 32 days (12/3-1/3) and on top of that showing no sign of it ending on 1/3 thus being a great example of why the models should be taken with a grain for the MJO and in general

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony absolutely did but at least he’s not denying it. And he’s absolutely right about it being forecasted (several times in fact). Here’s one of several ext-EPS runs forecasting a 30+ straight day phase 8: this one (12/3 ext-EPS run) had it at 32 days (12/3-1/3) and on top of that showing no sign of it ending on 1/3 thus being a great example of why the models should be taken with a grain for the MJO and in general

GEFS is far more accurate regarding the MJO.

[EastonSN+]

AO

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS is far more accurate regarding the MJO.

GEFS verified better than EPS for Dec. I prefer to describe it as less wrong than far more accurate but that’s just me:

This is what actually verified: Dec ‘25 is in blue

[bncho]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony absolutely did but at least he’s not denying it. And he’s absolutely right about it being forecasted (several times in fact). Here’s one of several ext-EPS runs forecasting a 30+ straight day phase 8: this one (12/3 ext-EPS run) had it at 32 days (12/3-1/3) and on top of that showing no sign of it ending on 1/3 thus being a great example of why the models should be taken with a grain for the MJO and in general

I know that it was forecasted. And I'm not saying he was necessarily "wrong" in terms of following that forecast. But I don't know what he was predicting beforehand, that's why I said I couldn't remember.