2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

Great Lakes ice coverage peaked at 54.8% this week. After a near average winter in 2024-25, this winter ice coverage is solidly above the historical average around 40%. Superior is now half covered, with Erie nearly 100% covered. 

I went down to a park this afternoon where the Detroit River turns into Lake Erie. The ice is said to be 12-28" thick. 

Seeing an ice covered Erie is beautiful, even though that stops its Lake snow machine. 

https://bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/ice-grips-great-lakes-with-erie-nearly-fully-covered/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks very La Nina-like

[EastonSN+]

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest teleconnection forecasts have turned increasingly toward an AO+ as February moves into its final week.

If these forecasts are accurate, the return of colder weather, albeit not severely cold, following the February thaw that remains likely through February 20 +/- a few days could wind up being fairly short-lived. If so, even if February ends with cooler than normal temperatures as suggested by the ECMWF weeklies, a milder regime could rebuild during the opening week of March. Forecasting skill for the teleconnections is fairly low beyond 10-14 days, so it will probably be another 5-7 days before one can be more confident about the outcome for the first week of March.

Finally, the cooler weather with some opportunities for rainfall that will build into the Southwest by the middle of next week probably won't last more than a week. Warmer temperatures should return to close February.

Check out today’s GEFS AO prog, a pretty notable change downward vs yesterday:

[EastonSN+]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Check out today’s GEFS AO prog, a pretty notable change downward vs yesterday:

[MJO812]

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

[MJO812]

Same pattern continues with the northeast 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

 

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

 

The EPO also has a stronger corrleation to temps in the Eastern US than the WPO. We would need a stronger -WPO to neutralize any effects an +EPO might have IMO.

[George001]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again in the east.

Looks like a gradient pattern is setting up with waves along a boundary.