2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 2018/2023 redux?

Definitely not a March 2018 redux. That was a record snowy March here at PHL, and quite frankly, I can't see that outcome happening again.

At some point, I've got to think this string of cold months has to end at some point. Even in 2018, we had the very warm February that interrupted an otherwise cold and snowy winter pattern.

[GaWx]

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Idk about that. Seems to me as though it's shaping up to be a warm Feb nationally. Check tonight's model runs for example and tell me with a straight face we see such a large area of -5 to -7 departures by month's end. Hell the AI models are showing record warmth at times for the Midwest, almost like a hybrid of Feb 2017 and Feb 2024. Not saying it'll be that warm as those were legendary torch months, but I'm just not seeing a cold pattern; things are starting to change in the Pacific. I know these sudden warmer trends are shocking to some, but we also need to stay objective here.

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Idk about that. Seems to me as though it's shaping up to be a warm Feb nationally. Check tonight's model runs for example and tell me with a straight face we see such a large area of -5 to -7 departures by month's end. Hell the AI models are showing record warmth at times for the Midwest, almost like a hybrid of Feb 2017 and Feb 2024. Not saying it'll be that warm as those were legendary torch months, but I'm just not seeing a cold pattern; things are starting to change in the Pacific. I know these sudden warmer trends are shocking to some, but we also need to stay objective here.

There is going to be a brief warmup but the month should end up cold.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!

[snowman19]

It will because it won't meet the 5 consecutive months at or blow -0.5 criteria, but I considered it a La Niña, anyway....per MEI and RONI.

Really with the lone exception of last weekend, we have been in a dry pattern since the end of November. A very persistent cold pattern for sure but also an overall dry one 

[donsutherland1]

The EPS is suggesting that the PNA+ regime that commenced is approaching its end. Moreover, a WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern will develop near February 10th +/- a few days. The evolution of this pattern will very likely mark the end of the severely cold pattern that has gripped the eastern third of the CONUS and seen multiple waves of Arctic air masses sweep into the East. It will likely also dent the persistently warm pattern that has dominated in parts of the West, at least for a time.  The West will probably see a resumption of the warmth during the closing 7-10 days of February. The outlook for the eastern third is a more uncertain.

A WPO+/EPO+/AO- (neutral)/PNA- pattern is typically a milder pattern, but not exceptionally warm one. Were the AO to go positive, the probability of more significant warmth would open up.

Finally, there is the complication of shortening wave lengths that will increasingly become a factor mid-month and beyond. As wave lengths shorten, teleconnections lose their predictive skill. Instead, synoptic factors that can only be forecast at shorter lead times play a more prominent role.

[EastonSN+]

So assuming we are still on track for March blocking:

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

There is going to be a brief warmup but the month should end up cold.

That was the original line of thinking most had a few days ago before these new warmer trends, but now I’m not sure any region of the country ends up that cold relative to average compared to Dec and Jan. EPS is still pretty warm through the end of the run with a fairly strong -PNA signal, AI models are showing a similar pattern as well.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So assuming we are still on track for March blocking:

Not necessarily, still too early to say imo.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

edit 8:28AM: I can’t even recall the last day NG dropped as much. I think it has and probably more but I don’t know when off the top of my head. I’ll try to find out. Of course, it remains to be seen how low it will be when it closes for the session as there could always be an intra session deadcat bounce.

 Meanwhile, evidently Phil saw his shadow meaning 6 more weeks of winter. But even that couldn’t give NG a bounce lol.

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%! I can’t even recall the last day it dropped so much.

I know you didn’t ask me, but personally I think NN overall for the Northeast as I believe the first week will be the coldest week relative to average before a warming trend commences afterward. I’m not saying record warmth necessarily, but perhaps a more subdued warmer than average pattern depending on how much blocking we see and other teleconnections, etc. My guess is the warmest anomalies end up being near the Plains this month.

[LakePaste25]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Disagree with this being the mean pattern. I think it’ll average out to a -PNA. That being said, it may not be an overwhelmingly negative PNA. -AO blocking to start out, and potential -EPO reloading the second half of the month should mitigate this. Not seeing a Feb 2018/2023/2024 style torch.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%! I can’t even recall the last day it dropped so much.

The NG market seems to be surfing the CFSv2's long-range outlook.

From January 31:

From February 1:

The moderation starting around the 10th is real. The consistent theme is that the southern and central plains/West will remain generally warmer than normal but there could be a 7-10-day cooler period in the West. Wave lengths will be shortening beyond mid-month, complicating things and enhancing the level of uncertainty. I don't think either a mild or cold outcome in the East beyond let's say February 20th is a slam dunk. I'd still give greater weight to the ECMWF weeklies for a possible return of cooler weather, not necessarily severely cold weather, as there are some hints that the EPO and WPO could go negative sometime after mid-month.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

What’s your feeling about Feb temp anomalies in the E US? BN, NN, or AN?  The first week is cold. There’s no getting by that. So, BN will have a great headstart regardless of the duration and intensity of the expected subsequent warmup. About all indices point to a significant pattern change (warmer) during week 2 as of now. So, it’s seemingly inevitable. But how mild and for how long. NG market is worried it could be quite significant as it is now at a session low of an amazing -18%!

BN, I'm getting March 2015 vibes. The first week being well below average, a continuation of the previous month, and set the tone for the month, but I feel like a pattern change is coming, with the string of below average months coming to an end soon. Something tells me March is going to be above average (like April 2015), and April is going to be a near record warm month (like May 2015).

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

BN, I'm getting March 2015 vibes. The first week being well below average, a continuation of the previous month, and set the tone for the month, but I feel like a pattern change is coming, with the string of below average months coming to an end soon. Something tells me March is going to be above average (like April 2015), and April is going to be a near record warm month (like May 2015).

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Not necessarily, still too early to say imo.

Not really. I'd be stunned if we didn't see blocking in March.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

I’d love for that to happen tbh. Feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen a true April torch. I just don’t think Feb 2026 will end up as cold as March 2015 relative to average. Philadelphia finished -4.5 in March 2015, just can’t see that happening this month as the warmer days will eventually outweigh the colder days imo.

We had April torches in 2017 and 2019 (those were two of the warmest Aprils ever), as well as the first half of April 2023 (before we turned cold, which lasted until the end of June).

Thing about February is that it's only 28 days. The cold beginning is going to eat a good chunk of the month. For the warmer days to eventually outweigh the colder days, we're going to need to string together some record-breaking, 70+ heat. I just don't see it happening.