2025-2026 ENSO

[LakePaste25]

The 6z Euro has a clean, amped ridge out west and clippers digging for gold. I have not seen this pattern since Jan/Feb 2015.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Anecdotally, this is the 2nd slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel. I'm sure I'll get weenied for this, but I'm just introducing this evidence to show how dry it has been this winter. The slowest start to winter storm names by the weather channel was last winter, 2025. The weather channel isn't the best at adhering to their own criteria when naming the storms (2 million+ people have to be under winter storm warning in order for it to be named), but they're pretty good at adhering to their criteria aside from a few exceptions. Just goes to show how dry the past 2 winters have been. In 2023 and 2024, the lack of cold air was a problem for many east of the Plains. But in 2025 and 2026, there hasn't been a shortage of cold, there's been a shortage of precipitation. Almost like winter in the 1930s lol 

[GaWx]

 Not surprisingly, today’s GEFS mean prog has reduced the max amp of the phase 6-7 from the ~2.7 of two days ago to now being close to the Euro’s ~2.1 today (see below). But it retains the 17 day record breaking long winter phase 6.

 Also, note that today’s GEFS turns it left as it approaches phase 8:

 

Yesterday’s ext GEFS didn’t turn as much:

 
 This change should be respected based on the stats for the # of DJF MJO days by phase since 2011 showing that phases 6/7 were the two most frequent phases day by day and that phase 8’s days numbered only ~1/3 of that of phase 7, which is likely due to the strong W Pac warm pool (where phase 7 resides):

DJF:

1: 76

2: 96

3: 167

4: 173

5: 212

6: 249

7: 286

8: 95

 Whether or not the MJO actually goes into phase 8 late this month and then proceed to 1-2-3 in the first half of Feb will probably play a big role as regards the chance for the +PNA to come right back (if it were to actually go back to a -PNA for ~a week just prior) and the resultant resumption of a cold E US as we look toward the 1st half of Feb. If it ends up not going into phase 8 in a meaningful way, the last 2 Euro Weeklies runs showing a mainly mild Feb would seem to have a better chance to verify. Let’s hope not for those who want it cold.

@donsutherland1

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not surprisingly, today’s GEFS mean prog has reduced the max amp of the phase 6-7 from the ~2.7 of two days ago to now being close to the Euro’s ~2.1 today (see below). But it retains the 17 day record breaking long winter phase 6.

 Also, note that today’s GEFS turns it left as it approaches phase 8:

 

Yesterday’s ext GEFS didn’t turn as much:

 
 This change should be respected based on the stats for the # of DJF MJO days by phase since 2011 showing that phases 6/7 were the two most frequent phases day by day and that phase 8’s days numbered only ~1/3 of that of phase 7, which is likely due to the strong W Pac warm pool (where phase 7 resides):

DJF:

1: 76

2: 96

3: 167

4: 173

5: 212

6: 249

7: 286

8: 95

 Whether or not the MJO actually goes into phase 8 late this month and then proceed to 1-2-3 in the first half of Feb will probably play a big role as regards the chance for the +PNA to come right back (if it were to actually go back to a -PNA for ~a week just prior) and the resultant resumption of a cold E US as we look toward the 1st half of Feb. If it ends up not going into phase 8 in a meaningful way, the last 2 Euro Weeklies runs showing a mainly mild Feb would seem to have a better chance to verify. Let’s hope not for those who want it cold.

@donsutherland1

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What it comes down to is we just need to vanquish this persistent cool ENSO paradigm once and for all...I know some don't feel it's is a factor, but I don't mean ENSO itself....I mean the entire Pacific arena has been in cool ENSO mode for about 8 years. This is why the MJO always seems to skip over phase 8....even the past 1.5 seasons that have been decently cold, where are the big east coast storms?? The tropical forcing has still constantly deconstructively interfered with major east coast cyclogenesis for the most part. That strong El Niño a couple of years back was still left to compete with that residual cool ENSO forcing, which is why it sucked so badly. Even when MJO is in the COD...all that means is defaults to the baseline forcing...which is...take a guess. This is why I don't get people like DT who blow loads over La Niña weakening...it's like having your entire house burning to the ground and breathing a sigh of relief after dumping a bucket of water over the front stairs. His understanding of ENSO is so piss-poor...very reductive in nature.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

 

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

How would a potential shift to +AAM late month play into this? Is the +AAM the dog that wags a +PNA and/or phase 8 or do other things wag the AAM? Is the AAM a leader or a follower?

@SnowNiner

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

we continue to see legit CPAC and WHEM convection show up late month with legit subsidence over the MC, which should help us out. this coincides with impressive WWBs west of the dateline

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

One thing I’m real confident in is that February is going to be predominantly -PNA/RNA. I do not buy for one second that February is going to be +PNA and I don’t think you or @SnowGoose69 do either. I see a very strong -PNA signal for next month and I think it flips or at the very least starts to flip to RNA in the final few days of this month

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing I’m real confident in is that February is going to be predominantly -PNA/RNA. I do not buy for one second that February is going to be +PNA and I don’t think you or @SnowGoose69 do either. I see a very strong -PNA signal for next month and I think it flips or at the very least starts to flip to RNA in the final few days of this month

it seems like the opposite is likely to occur given the tropical forcing and subsequent jet extension all of the ensembles are seeing

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it seems like the opposite is likely to occur given the tropical forcing and subsequent jet extension all of the ensembles are seeing

While I have no problem with going +PNA the rest of this month, I completely disagree that it goes into February. I see February as a -PNA dominated month 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

How would a potential shift to +AAM late month play into this? Is the +AAM the dog that wags a +PNA and/or phase 8 or do other things wag the AAM? Is the AAM a leader or a follower?

@SnowNiner

 

 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it seems like the opposite is likely to occur given the tropical forcing and subsequent jet extension all of the ensembles are seeing

I'm not saying wall-to-wall RNA throughout February...I'm saying it will average out negative in the monthly mean. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'm not saying wall-to-wall RNA throughout February...I'm saying it will average out negative in the monthly mean. 

yeah that can certainly happen... i think early Feb looks pretty good, though, as the favorable tropical forcing should stick around for a bit based on hovmollers

[snowman19]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Beware of the latest ill-informed Social Media hype:


No "big" snowstorm is likely for the Northeast during January 15-16
 

 

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer. The drought has actually gotten worse since December: 

 

 

 

 

 

[LakePaste25]

Week 2 12z EPS guidance show more interest for the coastal cities. Not a strong signal, but it’s there. Week 1 should stay n/s dominant and confined to the lakes. 

[LakePaste25]

Looks like classic PV/+TNH coupling

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GEFS and EPS means late in their runs both had a great combo for E US cold of a -AO, -EPO, and -WPO. The NAO is slightly negative on the EPS and ~neutral on the GEFS. The PNA rises to neutral from its prior ~7 days of being negative. Overall, that’s a combo of indices favoring cold in the E US. The MJO is then mainly in 7 and trying to go into 8. If it does, watch out! But if it stalls there and mainly avoids it, the still mainly mild Euro Weeklies for the bulk of Feb would have a better chance of being right.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah that can certainly happen... i think early Feb looks pretty good, though, as the favorable tropical forcing should stick around for a bit based on hovmollers

Be careful about having the phase 8 signal shrink in future guidance...