2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events. 

So it doesn't have to be a reversal...

[EasternLI]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

EPS is on board with that from the looks of things. Plus it looks like there's actually a slight firing up of the Jet in the near term too. Perhaps models started to hone in on that recently hence the shifts lately? Being just enough to amplify everything just a little bit. Looks as though Santa decided to drop a little bit of high pressure east of the Himalayas in 36 hours. And you can see the jet wake up slightly from being completely dead off Asia previous to that.

 

Longer range, days 10-15. As per the hints from previous EPS runs. A much stronger Siberian high pressure is still looking to pay a visit to the east of the Himalayas. With the stronger jet extension now starting to more clearly present itself in that period. +EAMT event coming into better view now across guidance.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess, hardly.

 But obviously even if it hadn’t barely dipped below the 0 line, we know that that’s academic. Even if it had dipped only to, say +1 or +2, do we really think that that would have made a difference? After all that likely would still have been the weakest that early since 1968 and would have still been a a very impressive whopping 30 below avg. So, 30 below vs 31 or 32 below.

 But anyway, I pointed out that it officially barely reversed per the Euro to keep the record straight. Thus, I feel 11/28/25 will likely be added to the list of official major SSWs.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. 

It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

[EasternLI]

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January? 

 

[stadiumwave]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Speaking of the stratosphere shenanigans. This is one heck of an interesting chart to see come out from that euro extended. We downwell right through January? 

 

 

I remember posting that all the early strat warming, -QBO, La Nina winters had JAN as the coldest month in the analog package. The 3 years that had an actual early SSW (this year being one) it took on average 4 weeks before a noticeable affect on pattern. All 3 year had an effect on the troposphere pattern. 

Now, I am not saying JAN will be colder than DEC at all but historically the analogs suggested the odds of having some winter in JAN were higher than average. 

Therefore, if models have not gone bonkers today & holding forth fools gold & the flip is legit, is this a case we all died by model data instead of looking skeptically at the model data? If a more wintry like pattern emerges should we be all thay surprised?

[GaWx]

BAMwx met Brett Waltz with update this morning:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

I don't know about that, but at the time of the Stratosphere warming long range weeklies were not showing a -NAO in the +30-35 day typical lag time. Maybe they were assuming it all happens at the same time and since the 10mb warming was waning without -NAO, that they thought that was the end of it? There is a spike in -NAO probability +35 days after a late November 10mb warming (it's a different lag time at different times in the cold season.. longer early in the Winter, and in early April it's as soon as +10 days.) 10mb warming events can happen as soon in the year as Sept 30, with a +60 day typical lag time to -NAO. 

Reflective is probably just an adjoining of the upper levels and 500mb. Sometimes they hit at Day+0 together, but the actual -NAO 500mb correlation is up to 3x higher +laggedtime. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So it doesn't have to be a reversal...

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events. 

Chuck, I have in my notes that it's about 30 days for December warmings, and 45 days for November...maybe it will be closer to 30 days since it was so late in the month of December?

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

Cool. Yea, still learning...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 I don’t remember whom and you may not have said it, but I remember a number of posters and/or tweeters saying that the 11/28/25 SSWE was a “reflected” or “reflective” SSWE and that that meant it wouldn’t translate down to the troposphere. I don’t understand what that means, but rather I remember it being discussed and that that was bad news.

What do you know about this or do you know anything about it? Does this mean it really wasn’t reflective or reflected (whatever the correct term is). TIA

This wasn't a traditional SSW, as started in the troposphere and worked up...

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This wasn't a traditional SSW, as started in the troposphere and worked up...

But it then goes back down into the troposphere?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chuck, I have in my notes that it's about 30 days for December warmings, and 45 days for November...maybe it will be closer to 30 days since it was so late in the month of December?

Oct 1-30: +60 days

Nov 1-15: +50 days

Nov 15-30: +45 days

Dec 1-15: +40 days

Dec 15-30: +35 days

Jan 1-15 +30 days

Jan 15-30 +25 days

Feb 1-20: +20 days

Feb 20-March 30: +15 days

Apr 1-15: +10 days

Something like that.. 

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is an absurd shift

Fun! Let us see if it shifts more west in time, as of this look Maine and Nova Scotia get the fun.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is the latest subsurface from November to present. The wind anomalies have all but halted but things are primed if we get another solid weakening event of trades. Right now we are just maintaining the Nina SST profile.

I will say it is fascinating to see how active the sun has been going into winter and us getting a pronounced -NAO periods showing up now multiple times.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This wasn't a traditional SSW, as started in the troposphere and worked up...

You can have 2 scenarios that occur. We tend to want the top-down approach for SSWs but bottom up can still be impactful for us. The issue tends to be on top-down it can start to enhance the type of pattern we want (not always of course) with blocking and many times a very wintry time period. The bottom up approach tends to mean the troposphere is experiencing the perfect conditions but things can go awry and do not tend to last as long.

Over the years watching while it is nice we do focus on the 10hPa layer I tend to think we should also be focusing on 50-100hPa layers in these displacement events to give us a better understanding of how patterns shake out.

This was a wind reversal in the technical sense but was a large wave 1 process that took place with actually limited warming. I think the warming is very important in conjunction with wind reversals as sort of a 1-2 punch. The Atlantic just would not cooperate with us this go around hence the lack of a wave 2 response after the displacement. The Atlantic only just started working for us in allowing, in the last about 2 weeks, this -NAO pattern to set up.

If we had the stout ridge from the wave 1 process still around from early in December we would have certainly entertained the idea of a split as we finish out the month.

Also don't worry many of us are still trying to better understand the connection the processes have, even myself after many years of looking over the data. 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

EPS is on board with that from the looks of things. Plus it looks like there's actually a slight firing up of the Jet in the near term too. Perhaps models started to hone in on that recently hence the shifts lately? Being just enough to amplify everything just a little bit. Looks as though Santa decided to drop a little bit of high pressure east of the Himalayas in 36 hours. And you can see the jet wake up slightly from being completely dead off Asia previous to that.

 

Longer range, days 10-15. As per the hints from previous EPS runs. A much stronger Siberian high pressure is still looking to pay a visit to the east of the Himalayas. With the stronger jet extension now starting to more clearly present itself in that period. +EAMT event coming into better view now across guidance.

I believe a +EAMT should help in maintaining the ridge in the strat and maybe inject a bit of warming aloft. If this is the case I would watch a we go into the first two weeks of January what stirs up. Also hoping we can maintain the -NAO a bit longer to finally put the nail in the coffin.

[bncho]

That cold shot around New Year's Day has trended quite cold from the torch it was maybe four days ago. EPS averages 10-15F below average during this time frame for much of the East Coast.

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, bncho said:

That cold shot around New Year's Day has trended quite cold from the torch it was maybe four days ago. EPS averages 10-15F below average during this time frame for much of the East Coast.

Like bruh...these models are confused as heck on the pattern. That was so bad, lol

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I believe a +EAMT should help in maintaining the ridge in the strat and maybe inject a bit of warming aloft. If this is the case I would watch a we go into the first two weeks of January what stirs up. Also hoping we can maintain the -NAO a bit longer to finally put the nail in the coffin.

Well wouldn't that be a phenomenal series of events were that to happen. I remember reading about +EAMT events potentially being a catalyst leading towards strat disruption at some point in the past somewhere. So that makes total sense to me. Thanks for mentioning it, I kinda forgot all about that possible consequence. Yeah, these are very interesting features to keep tabs on for sure.

[snowman19]

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January
 

So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction 

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

You can have 2 scenarios that occur. We tend to want the top-down approach for SSWs but bottom up can still be impactful for us. The issue tends to be on top-down it can start to enhance the type of pattern we want (not always of course) with blocking and many times a very wintry time period. The bottom up approach tends to mean the troposphere is experiencing the perfect conditions but things can go awry and do not tend to last as long.

Over the years watching while it is nice we do focus on the 10hPa layer I tend to think we should also be focusing on 50-100hPa layers in these displacement events to give us a better understanding of how patterns shake out.

This was a wind reversal in the technical sense but was a large wave 1 process that took place with actually limited warming. I think the warming is very important in conjunction with wind reversals as sort of a 1-2 punch. The Atlantic just would not cooperate with us this go around hence the lack of a wave 2 response after the displacement. The Atlantic only just started working for us in allowing, in the last about 2 weeks, this -NAO pattern to set up.

If we had the stout ridge from the wave 1 process still around from early in December we would have certainly entertained the idea of a split as we finish out the month.

Also don't worry many of us are still trying to better understand the connection the processes have, even myself after many years of looking over the data. 

Oh, I always want to see it at 50mb...sometimes 10mb is too high up to really do much.

[EasternLI]

Man, take a look at these clusters from the EPS 00z run last night. Very clearly we've trended to the getting an actual block to form in the first place scenario. So here's the 5-7 day period now. All of them with the big Atlantic block, and the 3rd one just goes ape with it. 

Then beyond that, in the day 10-15 range. The leading scenario transitions from that, to a good old fashioned west based NAO block.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January
 

 It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Jan SPV at 10 mb is stronger than avg as that’s been what the extended EPS has shown on most runs since Dec 3rd:

Dec 3rd run: goes stronger than avg ~Jan 2nd and then gets stronger to end of run (Jan 17th):

12/23 run: goes stronger than avg on Jan 3rd and stays through end of run (Feb 6th):

 But a stronger than avg SPV would by no means automatically be a death sentence to a cold E US. Example: Jan of 2025 had a near record strong SPV at times.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

Dude, we need less of this in the thread. Just disagree and move on...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It would be no surprise whatsoever if the Jan SPV at 10 mb is stronger than avg as that’s been what the extended EPS has shown on most runs since Dec 3rd:

Dec 3rd run: goes stronger than avg ~Jan 2nd and then gets stronger to end of run (Jan 17th):

12/23 run: goes stronger than avg on Jan 3rd and stays through end of run (Feb 6th):

 

Strong PV doesn't necessarily mean "torch", either...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Man, take a look at these clusters from the EPS 00z run last night. Very clearly we've trended to the getting an actual block to form in the first place scenario. So here's the 5-7 day period now. All of them with the big Atlantic block, and the 3rd one just goes ape with it. 

Then beyond that, in the day 10-15 range. The leading scenario transitions from that, to a good old fashioned west based NAO block.

Yea, I declared a mea culpa on that last night....I was wrong on latter December blocking, though did get the emergence of Pacific troughing right...end result is I will be too warm for December. and maybe January. The stat warming last month was more impactful than I had theorized.