2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Accuwx winter forecast: opinions?

Significantly more snow than last winter NE to MW and less much of SE:

 

Cold MW and NN to slightly AN much of East:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Here comes the screaming pac jet. All 3 winter months should be at least + 5 F for the nyc metro, plenty of -PNA, +NAO, cutters etc. Should be a massive winter for the west though. Wouldn't be surprised if Seattle racks up double whatever single digit number we get.

Another bold post in October.

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

We had that same setup last year and it was very cold (compared to the last several years). Still couldn't even crack 13" in the park, and it's unlikely next winter will be as cold as last. The setup reminds me of 2022-2023 to be honest (2" of snow that whole winter).

[qg_omega]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

Under 10 inches for NYC, looks warm and dry

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season:

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23

Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025

Hey Raindance,

 Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks.

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Under 10 inches for NYC, looks warm and dry

Thanks for your genius expertise 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Thanks for your genius expertise 

I mean he's not wrong (could be warm and wet though).

[donsutherland1]

To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. 

Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. 

Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021:

 

 

Fall 2025 (through October 10):

Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022:

ECMWF DJF Forecast:

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. 

Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. 

Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021:

 

 

Fall 2025 (through October 10):

Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022:

ECMWF DJF Forecast:

Hey Don,

 What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1?

 Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F?

 OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction.

-Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8:

+4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5,  0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias.

@Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Under 10 inches for NYC, looks warm and dry

 

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I mean he's not wrong (could be warm and wet though).

He loves to troll