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2025-2026 ENSO


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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would agree with the boded even independent of GW. I don't expect 100" in a month again anytime soon.

As far as your transition period statement...I agree RE the increased moisture impact, but I still think we need more time to definitively say that the ceiling is lower...especially north of metro NYC.

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that settles that-

We're too southernly. CT shoreline is the dividing line now. If you look at the last 7 years the snow departures from normal are drastically worse in NYC than Boston say. As I think bluewave mentioned nyc is basically past the point of no return in the temperature department. I expect the same to happen to Boston eventually, maybe in 30ish years.

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On 10/5/2025 at 10:28 AM, anthonymm said:

This winter is looking more and more like a worst case scenario for mid atlantic up to nyc (not sure about sne that feels borderline right now). Could be another 2022-2023 for these regions.

If we see a crazy Pacific jet slam into the west coast and knock down any sustained +PNA and destroy any phasing opportunities to bring a good storm up here, I know exactly what to expect. Hopefully in that case it’s a mild winter since the wasted useless cold last winter was ridiculous. If whatever storm we get will be rain anyway, might as well be enjoyable outside. 

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16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we see a crazy Pacific jet slam into the west coast and knock down any sustained +PNA and destroy any phasing opportunities to bring a good storm up here, I know exactly what to expect. Hopefully in that case it’s a mild winter since the wasted useless cold last winter was ridiculous. If whatever storm we get will be rain anyway, might as well be enjoyable outside. 

You described verbatim what will happen. I do like a cold winter but it is frustrating to have a january 25 type scenario where you know it's cold enough to snow but you just keep getting unlucky. At least if its a january 23 type thing you know there's no chance anyway.

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12 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

You described verbatim what will happen. I do like a cold winter but it is frustrating to have a january 25 type scenario where you know it's cold enough to snow but you just keep getting unlucky. At least if its a january 23 type thing you know there's no chance anyway.

Last winter was torture here-nothing worse than freezing with some cirrus while watching the Deep South get slammed, then when a storm can finally make it here it turns into a SWFE (we had one decent 4-6” SWFE in Feb but that’s the exception around NYC) or cutter. I’d rather have the 22-23 scenario where like you said it was clear way out in time our window is slammed shut.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

We agree on that...ceiling is still higher than that for Boston.

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1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

We're too southernly. CT shoreline is the dividing line now. If you look at the last 7 years the snow departures from normal are drastically worse in NYC than Boston say. As I think bluewave mentioned nyc is basically past the point of no return in the temperature department. I expect the same to happen to Boston eventually, maybe in 30ish years.

The snowfall departures have actually been similar from DC to Boston last 7 years. 

I never mentioned any point of no return. Just that a warmer storm track and winter background temperatures will mean less snow than we used to get. 

Even in this much warmer climate we have still managed in NYC to avoid a shutout season. But places like Philly and DC have come close in recent years.

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33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….

 Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would agree with you that we need time to see what the exact ceiling is in this much warmer climate absent an historic volcanic cooling event.

My guess that I have stated is that the ceiling for NYC Central Park station is under 50”.

The ceiling at Boston is probably lower than what occurred in 14-15, 95-96, and 14-15 in the 96” to 110” range.

But I believe the Boston ceiling is higher than the last 7 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston beat their snowiest season out of the last 7 when they had 54.0” in 21-22. 
 

This logic makes zero sense to me, as if there is some linear correlation to "if it warms this much it will snow this much less". You harp so much on the 7 years or since 2016 or whatever, as if 2015 was generations ago. Weather goes in cycles, always have and always will, and to just assume things is really kind of wild imo. Especially since in a warmer climate there is more moisture in the air. Its not some formula of "avg temp goes from this to this so snowfall goes from this to this" and as Ive said many times. I could easily argue that for areas north of 41N or so a bit warmer temps would be a boon to heavier snowfall. If you want to be technical, the Great Lakes snow has certainly increased and even outside the belts, we see snowfall in Detroit, following the record regime of 2007-2015, just barely below the longterm avg the past decade despite several warm winters. Id argue that warmer winters are snowier than the used to be.

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 Some NAO and AO musings

 

 

September 2025 came in as the 7th consecutive +AO month. The odds of having 7-consecutive months of either direction are 1/64.. so once in 5 years. It shows that we are in a decadal +AO phase, which I believe really took a step up after the Solar Flares in May 2024. However, since 2012, the Summer AO sign as been flipping for the Winter in most cases, favoring a ridge at 90N. I wouldn't be surprised to see this 90N ridge again this Winter, but the Polar/Mid-latitude Cell puts a corresponding trough at 45N (not 40N), which may be further north than you might expect for -AO. 

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 In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this:

Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter

“Here are the 4 warmest eastern winters since the start of the century:”

 He then shows a very warm map comprised of DJF anomalies for 2001-2, 2011-2, 2016-7, and 2022-3.

 Next, he says this: “Here is the Sept Stratosphere over the S pole at 10 mb”

IMG_4781.png.925eecd4055030f82c9e69eaab4de680.png

 

“This is an amazing antilog to what the cold winters have looked like”

IMG_4782.png.6ac7cecf7f1574c9a2b104f5e643b66b.png

So, he’s trying to say that 2013-4, 2014-5, 2017-8, 2019-20, and 2024-5 are better analogs.

Although @snowman19wont like this, I’ll be fair and ask if JB may be onto something noteworthy. Putting it another way, is the Euro going to end up much too warm this DJF like it was in 2024-5 and 2020-1?

 Opinions?

 

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^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. 

Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

1.gif

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13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^You can do actual AAO correlations over the whole dataset, of 73 years, both signs included. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

Lead time (months): Let the index lead, Lag time (months): Let the pattern precede an AAO phase. 

Just going with January following a Sept AAO, this looks pretty "random"

1.gif

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

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10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

10mb events are usually uniform.. you'll usually get a smooth + or - mean. That's a pretty good one though, I know in the N. Hemisphere the monthly mean never really exceeds +1800m (and that one's +1100)

I will have to go through and manually make 10mb analogs.. I was incorrect in saying it's AAO. AAO is actually a 500mb anomaly, not 10mb. There isn't a known index that calculates S. Hemisphere monthly 10mb anomaly... so the roll forwards indicating "random" is not really a correct response to anomalous 10mb September. 

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