2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With regard to the EPO, I suspect the current issue is less one about whether it can go positive or negative, but the issue of decreasing variability. In other words, there is greater stickiness for either a positive regime or negative regime during winter and that tendency has increased in recent years. More broadly, this tendency would be consistent with the growing evidence that "stuck patterns" are growing more frequent.

And if one looks more closely, the stuck patterns seem to be starting to break in favor of EPO+ values. Here are ratios of the percentage of postive and negative days in January-February vs. percentage of positive and negative days in December. These are currently modest trends.

I'll go out on a limb and say we won't be stuck in +EPO patterns for the majority of winter 2025-2026.

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll go out on a limb and say we won't be stuck in +EPO patterns for the majority of winter 2025-2026.

I don't expect that outcome either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't expect that outcome either. 

WPO I am less confident in.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WPO I am less confident in.

As far as the WPO goes….I have to agree with you there. The WPAC SST pattern over the last couple of months up to now is matching past years that had predominantly +WPO winters. If that doesn’t change in a big way between now and the end of November, a +WPO winter would not surprise me

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As far as the WPO goes….I have to agree with you there. The WPAC SST pattern over the last couple of months up to now is matching past years that had predominantly +WPO winters. If that doesn’t change in a big way between now and the end of November, a +WPO winter would not surprise me

I do not think it will be as extreme, though....yes, the west PAC is still warm, but the warmth has spread east...think of it as kind of like a the RONI effect with respect to ENSO. Remeber the 2023-2024 El Nino and how the west warm pool mitigated and altered the warm ENSO impression around the hemisphere.

I think that warmth further east will act to neutralize things to an extent.

[qg_omega]

[Cobalt]

On 9/28/2024 at 12:27 PM, qg_omega said:

4-5-6 all winter

 

On 9/16/2024 at 7:00 AM, qg_omega said:

Very easy forecast for winter with MJO in 4 5 6 in the means for DJF, nothing else matters

 

On 8/18/2024 at 12:31 PM, qg_omega said:

+4 to +8 DJF early call

 

On 8/16/2024 at 9:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Warmest winter ever looks increasingly likely 

 

On 12/27/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said:

Looks like a cutter pattern on the ensembles 

 

On 12/26/2024 at 7:45 AM, qg_omega said:

The pattern is ZZZ with rain chances for the next two weeks

At the very least snowman has some substance behind his messages. qg_omega is just a troll. 

[DarkSharkWX]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do not think it will be as extreme, though....yes, the west PAC is still warm, but the warmth has spread east...think of it as kind of like a the RONI effect with respect to ENSO. Remeber the 2023-2024 El Nino and how the west warm pool mitigated and altered the warm ENSO impression around the hemisphere.

I think that warmth further east will act to neutralize things to an extent.

doesnt eastern IO forcing have the highest correlation to +WPO?

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

lock it in.

[George001]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Way too early

[bncho]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

cfs is super volatile

[PhiEaglesfan712]

28 minutes ago, George001 said:

Way too early

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

doesnt eastern IO forcing have the highest correlation to +WPO?

Yes, and argues for positive....but I'm just saying I don't think it will be as extreme....maybe I'll be wrong. We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Cobalt said:

 

 

 

 

 

At the very least snowman has some substance behind his messages. qg_omega is just a troll. 

Snowman has plenty to offer..it's just always one-sided info.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

I think there will be a pretty mild stretch mid-winter.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

Two things to comment on this. 

#1) This is a good example of why I always say...pattern is more concerning than temps for here in terms of snowfall. Despite the bright orange color, the snowfall in those 3 Januaries at Detroit was: 1950- 9.5", 2017- 11.8", 2023- 11.7". The longterm POR avg for Jan snow is 11".

#2) it would not be a surprise to me whatsoever to see a very nice winter stretch as well as a shitty stretch....its very common in Nina winters. Always has been and to coin a favorite term on here, in "today's climate", you can even add an extra boost to that volatility. But you should know that anything from that poster is nothing but troll bait, and certainly not a legitimate thought/forecast for the coming winter. 

[snowman19]

The drought continues to worsen. Yesterday’s rain event underperformed what was expected earlier on in the week, not that it would have made much of a dent anyway. Soil moisture is also ridiculously below normal
 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

The Copernicus model suite is showing the same total disconnect between the SPV and the TPV that we saw last winter. It’s showing them staying uncoupled in November and December with a very weak SPV, but a +AO/+NAM at the surface. Interestingly, the last times such scenarios happened was when we had a negative IOD
 @Stormchaserchuck1

[40/70 Benchmark]

I always advise taking this guy with a grain of salt, but this is an interesting piece....I consider him like snowman, only on the opposite end of the spectrum. He clearly knows enough to be dangerous, but his data always seems to point in the same direction.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/will-north-pacific-ocean-anomaly-bring-cold-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-fa/

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say that this is not an unreasonable look, and resembles many of the early composites we have seen...but I don't think it's tweaked enough for CC because no way negative anaomalies will be that expansive in a seasonal mean this day and age.....I would snip away the southern and eastern third of that area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting...a bit of overlap...1993 common denominator. I looked at that season, but ultimately disregarded because there was too much of a warm ENSO flavor to it.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always advise taking this guy with a grain of salt, but this is an interesting piece....I consider him like snowman, only on the opposite end of the spectrum. He clearly knows enough to be dangerous, but his data always seems to point in the same direction.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/will-north-pacific-ocean-anomaly-bring-cold-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-fa/

Since 19-20, he always finds a way to predict a -AO/-NAO winter with a very weak SPV and major blocking every single year. He’s only gotten one right by default….20-21. And I get accused of being biased lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Since 19-20, he always finds a way to predict a -AO/-NAO winter with a very weak SPV and major blocking every single year. He’s only gotten one right by default….20-21. And I get accused of being biased lol 

Agreed RE him, but I can't every recall you being on the decent winter train, either...and notice I say "decent winter" as opposed to "cold". It's never cold anymore, but there have been decent winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This data set actually has some nice winters for my area...2004, 1993, 1992 and 1960 were great, very good, great and very good. 1974 and 2016 were respectable. 1979-1980 was my lowest snowfall season ever and 1998 sucked.

I think I would take this data set over the other one TBH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This data set actually has some nice winters for my area...2004, 1993, 1992 and 1960 were great, very good, great and very good. 1974 and 2016 were respectable. 1979-1980 was my lowest snowfall season ever and 1998 sucked.

I think I would take this data set over the other one TBH.

This data set illustrates my point about how crucial the WPO will be. All of these seasons except for 1998, which sucked, had a -WPO. Having a favorable WPO leaves much more margin for error, so hopefully the western warm pool is offset enough by the NE PAC warming so that it isn't so extreme this season. A strongly positive WPO leaves virtually no margin for error around the rest of the hemisphere, so if anything else is significantly unfavorable, then most of us are cooked and upside is near normal.

[kazimirkai]

18 hours ago, bncho said:

cfs is super volatile

Typically has a cold bias though so the consistency in warm/dry anomalies it's been progging for early season over the past couple days may be worth noting 

[snowman19]

It would not shock me to see an uncoupled (disconnected) SPV this winter where the SPV is weak but there’s a +AO at the surface, as Commoditywx showed in that tweet above. That looks like a very strong tendency of previous years with the -IOD and the Copernicus is showing it for November and December 

[kazimirkai]

How much are we expecting the NE pac to cool over the next few months? My seasonal/subseasonal prof is saying the NE warm pool is a remnant of the triple dip and wont last much longer 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would not shock me to see an uncoupled (disconnected) SPV this winter where the SPV is weak but there’s a +AO at the surface, as Commoditywx showed in that tweet above. That looks like a very strong tendency of previous years with the -IOD and the Copernicus is showing it for November and December 

I would feel compelled to go through those seasons and check the QBO/solar states. Its going to be difficult to sustained a storngly +AO early on with a strongly easterly QBO near solar max.

1974 and 1979 appear to be decent QBO matches-

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

How much are we expecting the NE pac to cool over the next few months? My seasonal/subseasonal prof is saying the NE warm pool is a remnant of the triple dip and wont last much longer 

Seasonals have it persisting. Remnant of what triple dip? It wasn't there during those three consecutive La Nina events earlier this decade.