2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

I would gladly take a repeat of that winter minus the trough down to the Baja....would have been a good season with a more pedestrian RNA.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's one none of us want unless you like an average Florida like January. 

Both 1949-50 & 2022-23 were similar here in that they were overall very mild winters but with multiple winter storms. There was certainly some excitement but winter did not sustain itself. 

[GaWx]

What the?

@donsutherland1@snowman19@bluewave

[GaWx]

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month:

@snowman19

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month:

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter. 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

What the?

@donsutherland1@snowman19@bluewave

It seems quite bizarre, especially with the embedded simulated radar image from a snowstorm that almost certainly won't be equaled during any of our lifetimes in the Deep South.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

We never really know what the warmest potential is for any winter until it actually gets underway.

There were no reliable forecasts prior to December 2015 suggesting the +13 and warmer than many Novembers for the Northeast. The 2016-2017 winter also gave no early model indication of how warm it would be. Same for the 2019-2020 winter.

There wasn’t a seasonal forecast issued prior to December 2021 forecasting a +13 for DFW. Plus we didn’t get any indication ahead of the 2022-2023 winter from the models  that there would be such a deep trough in the West.

None of the models had the magnitude of the warmth for the 2023-2024 winter ahead of time. But there were indications as early as the spring and summer I was discussing ahead of time that there were warmer risks to the forecast due to how warm the WPAC was for an El Niño. But the magnitude of the warmth became extreme since we had multiple +10 months in a row.

This is because nearly every winter since 2015-2016 some portion of the CONUS has experienced a +10 or warmer month. The location and magnitude of the warmth are never forecast much in advance. 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

 

 

 

[snowman19]

The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We never really know what the warmest potential is for any winter until it actually gets underway.

There were no reliable forecasts prior to December 2015 suggesting the +13 and warmer than many Novembers for the Northeast. The 2016-2017 winter also gave no early model indication of how warm it would be. Same for the 2019-2020 winter.

There wasn’t a seasonal forecast issued prior to December 2021 forecasting a +13 for DFW. Plus we didn’t get any indication ahead of the 2022-2023 winter from the models  that there would be such a deep trough in the West.

None of the models had the magnitude of the warmth for the 2023-2024 winter ahead of time. But there were indications as early as the spring and summer I was discussing ahead of time that there were warmer risks to the forecast due to how warm the WPAC was for an El Niño. But the magnitude of the warmth became extreme since we had multiple +10 months in a row.

This is because nearly every winter since 2015-2016 some portion of the CONUS has experienced a +10 or warmer month. The location and magnitude of the warmth are never forecast much in advance. 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

 

 

 

If one is looking for an idea of  the warmest potential for any winter (month, season, or year) in the current climate regime (defined as the most recent 30 periods e.g. winters), one can come up with confidence intervals from a linear regression equation. A 1-in-1,000 year probability for the current regime would be the 99.9% confidence interval. For NYC, that value for a winter mean temperature is currently 44.8° (record is 41.6°, in 2001-02). The coefficient of determination for NYC is 0.545. Recently, though, some cities have seen months or even seasons breach this threshold e.g., July 2023 in Phoenix.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter. 

I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We never really know what the warmest potential is for any winter until it actually gets underway.

There were no reliable forecasts prior to December 2015 suggesting the +13 and warmer than many Novembers for the Northeast. The 2016-2017 winter also gave no early model indication of how warm it would be. Same for the 2019-2020 winter.

There wasn’t a seasonal forecast issued prior to December 2021 forecasting a +13 for DFW. Plus we didn’t get any indication ahead of the 2022-2023 winter from the models  that there would be such a deep trough in the West.

None of the models had the magnitude of the warmth for the 2023-2024 winter ahead of time. But there were indications as early as the spring and summer I was discussing ahead of time that there were warmer risks to the forecast due to how warm the WPAC was for an El Niño. But the magnitude of the warmth became extreme since we had multiple +10 months in a row.

This is because nearly every winter since 2015-2016 some portion of the CONUS has experienced a +10 or warmer month. The location and magnitude of the warmth are never forecast much in advance. 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

 

 

 

Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled  in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The projected pattern for late month and early October isn’t just warmer than normal….it’s also dry as a bone. If this is correct, we will be in full fledged drought conditions in October
 

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

[jm1220]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

What the?

@donsutherland1@snowman19@bluewave

If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again. 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled  in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.

I will give the EPS weeklies credit for starting to pick up on March 2012 record warmth during mid-February.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/ecmwf-weekly-maps/

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will give the EPS weeklies credit for starting to pick up on March 2012 record warmth during mid-February.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/ecmwf-weekly-maps/

Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again. 

It's a possibility this year-

[40/70 Benchmark]

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys.

https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America

I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys.

https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America

I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

He's done invaluable work. I share your sentiments.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys.

https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America

I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

Yeah, it’s funny that most of the seasonal model forecasts for this winter are defaulting to figure 1 full trend. 

[chris21]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.

Last winter the storm track was even suppressed south of me in extreme NW NC. Thankfully we always get consistent upslope snow so we still ended up with 43.5 inches but very little was from larger synoptic events even this far south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s funny that most of the seasonal model forecasts for this winter are defaulting to figure 1 full trend. 

Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.

The blended model ensemble mean is defaulting to the full trend diagram.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blended model ensemble mean is defaulting to the full trend diagram.

 

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough?

I think they are wrong on that.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough?

I think they are wrong on that.

That is the trend which is independent of the different regimes. It could be why the seasonal models are defaulting to it. I am not really interested in what the seasonal models are showing this early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That is the trend which is independent of the different regimes. It could be why the seasonal models are defaulting to it. I am not really interested in what the seasonal models are showing this early.

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

[kazimirkai]

Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest? 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

Yeah, still too early to know if it’s just a default or the models are onto something. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah. It’s still too early to know if it’s just a default or the models are onto something. Kind of like the models running with stock ENSO composites. In the event the stock composite is close to reality then the models have a good season. 

Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see.

CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern