2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?

1. It’s a weak to very weak correlation at best regarding AN ACE to 35”+ NYC snow. Furthermore, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation.

2. If either of the two possibilities were to be the case even in a weak manner, I’d go with your 2nd option.

3. I’ve seen no indication about an even very weak correlation of recurving hurricanes and 35”+ NYC snow.

4. If anything, there may be a very weak correlation to seasons with 2+ US H hits and not the other way around. That sort of seems like the opposite 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

It's whatever Joe Bastardi says it is!

@snowman19

[anthonymm]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the sample size is pretty small, there has been an increase in NYC La Niña snowfall following Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160+ ACE since 1995. There was also an increase in December +PNAs. Unfortunately, the relationship didn’t work last winter due to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

Last season was the first with only 12.9” of snowfall in NYC with a strong December +PNA and a La Niña.

My guess is that the high ACE was part of a similar pattern which used to produce both December +PNAs and snowy outcomes during La Nina’s. So while we got the strong December +PNA last season, the snowfall didn’t follow due to the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. 

So several elements in the same pattern but we can’t say that the ACE is directly the cause. Just that these elements appear together from time to time. It could be they are related to another underlying variable that we haven’t identified yet. 

2005….ACE…..245….DEC PNA….+1.38….NYC snowfall….40.0”

1995….ACE……227….DEC PNA…..+0.92..NYC snowfall ….75.6”

2017….ACE……224….DEC PNA…..+0.89…NYC snowfall….40.9”

1998…ACE……181……DEC PNA…..-0.09….NYC snowfall…..12.7”

2020..ACE……180…..DEC PNA…..+1.58….NYC snowfall….38.6”

1999…ACE……176…..DEC PNA……+0.21….NYC snowfall…..16.3”

2010…ACE…..165……DEC PNA…….-1.78….NYC snowfall…..61.9”

2024…ACE….161……DEC PNA…….+1.70….NYC snowfall…..12.9”

 

Crazy rotten luck last winter for nyc. It's very rare nowadays to get below normal temps and snow.

[snowman19]

Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we get a la nina, we better hope it doesn't torch, or the winter is pretty much toast. I know that one storm is all that's needed to skew the winter, but getting that one storm is tougher in a torch la nina (since the weather generally has a lot less variance during a la nina, I mean what happens in late November and December pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the winter). Just look at the last 3 la nina torch winters:

11-12: BWI snowfall 1.8 in; DCA snowfall 2.0 in

16-17: BWI snowfall 3.0 in; DCA snowfall 3.4 in

22-23: BWI snowfall 0.2 in; DCA snowfall 0.4 in

[snowman19]

If we get a la nina, we better hope it doesn't torch, or the winter is pretty much toast. I know that one storm is all that's needed to skew the winter, but getting that one storm is tougher in a torch la nina (since the weather generally has a lot less variance during a la nina, I mean what happens in late November and December pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the winter). Just look at the last 3 la nina torch winters:
11-12: BWI snowfall 1.8 in; DCA snowfall 2.0 in
16-17: BWI snowfall 3.0 in; DCA snowfall 3.4 in
22-23: BWI snowfall 0.2 in; DCA snowfall 0.4 in

As a sweeping generality, -ENSO/-PDO winters tip their hand in November and December….if those 2 months are warmer than normal with below average snow, that usually sets the tone for the remainder of the winter season….the opposite (colder than normal with above average snow) normally also holds true

[anthonymm]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we get a la nina, we better hope it doesn't torch, or the winter is pretty much toast. I know that one storm is all that's needed to skew the winter, but getting that one storm is tougher in a torch la nina (since the weather generally has a lot less variance during a la nina, I mean what happens in late November and December pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the winter). Just look at the last 3 la nina torch winters:

11-12: BWI snowfall 1.8 in; DCA snowfall 2.0 in

16-17: BWI snowfall 3.0 in; DCA snowfall 3.4 in

22-23: BWI snowfall 0.2 in; DCA snowfall 0.4 in

Isn't nina looking less and less likely? Almost looks like a carbon copy of last winter (which was good for mid atlantic but meh for philly-nyc-coastal new england).

[snowman19]

Isn't nina looking less and less likely? Almost looks like a carbon copy of last winter (which was good for mid atlantic but meh for philly-nyc-coastal new england).

No it’s not. In fact, a La Niña Watch was just issued by the CPC/NOAA

[snowman19]

IMO, there is a high risk for a dry met fall (SON) again this year. I don’t think we see a record drought like last fall, but I can see us reach drought conditions none the less

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No it’s not. In fact, a La Niña Watch was just issued by the CPC/NOAA

Well that sucks. Nina is pretty much a winter killer if you're south of new england no?

[GaWx]

 NATL ACE has risen to 23.6, which is the 16th highest of the last 75 for the date.

 Based on the latest NHC prog, ACE would be ~42 as of late Aug 23. If that verifies, 2025 would move up to 9th or 10th of the last 75. It would also move up to ~19th or 20th of the last 175 years (~89th percentile).

 The only ones higher than 2025 as of Aug 23rd would be these:
2024, 2008, near tie with 2007, 2005, 1995, 1980, 1969, 1955, 1951, 1950, 1933, 1926, 1916, 1899, 1893, 1887, 1886, 1880, and 1871. 
2025 would be just ahead of 2004, 1966, and 1915.

@mitchnick@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 NATL ACE has risen to 23.6, which is the 16th highest of the last 75 for the date.

 Based on the latest NHC prog, ACE would be ~42 as of late Aug 23. If that verifies, 2025 would move up to 9th or 10th of the last 75. It would also move up to ~19th or 20th of the last 175 years (~89th percentile).

 The only ones higher than 2025 as of Aug 23rd would be these:
2024, 2008, near tie with 2007, 2005, 1995, 1980, 1969, 1955, 1951, 1950, 1933, 1926, 1916, 1899, 1893, 1887, 1886, 1880, and 1871. 
2025 would be just ahead of 2004, 1966, and 1915.

@mitchnick@snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

To add to the above post:

 Of the 22 listed years, including the three 2025 is projected to be just ahead of as of August 23rd, only 2007 ended up with a BN total season ACE (averages based on their era).

 Of the other 21, all ended up the season well AN (based on their era’s average).