2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?

1. It’s a weak to very weak correlation at best regarding AN ACE to 35”+ NYC snow. Furthermore, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation.

2. If either of the two possibilities were to be the case even in a weak manner, I’d go with your 2nd option.

3. I’ve seen no indication about an even very weak correlation of recurving hurricanes and 35”+ NYC snow.

4. If anything, there may be a very weak correlation to seasons with 2+ US H hits and not the other way around. That sort of seems like the opposite 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

It's whatever Joe Bastardi says it is!

@snowman19