2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

None.  If there is a record high temp in bumble Montana, we will 100% see a post in the NY forum about it.  A few record lows last night across NE, silence.  Zero chance this guy would have been too cold.  

Yeah, I really don't care about a record high temperature in Montana. It has no bearing on our area. There were a lot of record high temps in Montana during January, February, and March 2015. It's not going to take away from the fact that it was the coldest JFM since 1978 where I live.

Or the fact that Montana had a +10 temp departure last December. Temps were near normal last December in my area, and it was the coldest winter of the last 10.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did, and you said you didn't put temp numbers out. Sounds like from what you have said that you would have forecasted that you nailed it, which is great....I but I find value in having a record to remove any trace of subjectivity or confsuion. Perhaps I am just rigid and others disagree.

There would be no confusion if you asked me yesterday since I keep a record of which days they were posted on. Like…Hey can you direct me to your forecast ideas from last winter? I would have said sure and directed you to the posts from last October. My snowfall outlooks were in the NYC Metro forum. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There would be no confusion if you asked me yesterday since I keep a record of which days they were posted on. Like…Hey can you direct me to your forecast ideas from last winter? I would have said sure and directed you to the posts from last October. My snowfall outlooks were in the NYC Metro forum. 

Great, could you link me to your seasonal temp forecast for last winter? 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All joking aside, I will try be more mindful of seeking clarity from you in the future before passing judgement...not that you are about my take.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, FPizz said:

None.  If there is a record high temp in bumble Montana, we will 100% see a post in the NY forum about it.  A few record lows last night across NE, silence.  Zero chance this guy would have been too cold.  

I got down to 49.1...it was so refreshing.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great, could you link me to your seasonal temp forecast for last winter? 

I linked it up yesterday showing that the mismatch analogs would be colder than what the Euro was forecasting for last winter. But in this warmer climate they probably wouldn’t be as cold as previous mismatch years. That turned out to be correct since last winter was one of the warmest on record for past instances when those parameters were met back in the colder climate. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I linked it up yesterday showing that the mismatch analogs would be colder than what the Euro was forecasting for last winter. But in this warmer climate they probably wouldn’t be as cold as previous mismatch years. That turned out to be correct since last winter was one of the warmest on record for past instances when those parameters were met back in the colder climate. 

So you kind of had the right idea.

There were some pretty fundamental differences from 2010-2011 beyond simply 14 years worth of GW.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you kind of had the right idea.

There were some pretty fundamental differences from 2010-2011 beyond simply 14 years worth of GW.

The only common thread between 10-11 and 24-25 was the La Niña mismatch. That’s why I mentioned that big caveat in my post that there were other things much different than 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11.

A main reason we had the record 60”+ snows around NYC from 12-26-10 to 1-27-10 was the -NAO retrograding back west boosting the PNA enough to put us in business. You will notice we hardly snowfall during most of December and February when the PNA was so negative. That was the greatest 33 days of winter that I ever had the privilege to experience on Long Island. 

Unfortunately, things have shifted so much that I would be happy these days to get one third those amounts even in a whole season let alone one month. Hopefully, we can get some type of bounce off this record low snowfall pattern since 18-19 before we close out the 2020s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only common thread between 10-11 and 24-25 was the La Niña mismatch. That’s why I mentioned that big caveat in my post that there were other things much different than 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11.

A main reason we had the record 60”+ snows around NYC from 12-26-10 to 1-27-10 was the -NAO retrograding back west boosting the PNA enough to put us in business. You will notice we hardly snowfall during most of December and February when the PNA was so negative. That was the greatest 33 days of winter that I ever had the privilege to experience on Long Island. 

Unfortunately, things have shifted so much that I would be happy these days to get one third those amounts even in a whole season let alone one month. Hopefully, we can get some type of bounce off this record low snowfall pattern since 18-19 before we close out the 2020s.

Yea, I also feel the West Pacific being drastically different is a big reasony why the -NAO was abope to produce more readily that season compared to more recent ones. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The most amazing thing about the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11 is how that much snow fell in such a short window of time. The snow during those winters ended abruptly (although 2011 did have a small storm on President's Day and a last hurrah at the end of March).

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Crazy year.  Madison, Milwaukee, and Ann Arbor had more snow than GRR and Flint came close.  '07-'08 was a decent year but not even in the top 20 locally.

I had 78.2". DTW in a mini "screwzone" with 71.7", if you can call the 4th snowiest winter a screwzone. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I also feel the West Pacific being drastically different is a big reasony why the -NAO was abope to produce more readily that season compared to more recent ones. 

Yeah, I am thinking that both could be related. Since the WPAC has been rapidly warming under that expanding subtropical ridge building into the mid-latitudes. On the Atlantic side it has been causing the -AOs and -NAOs to link with the Southeast Ridge. So it’s been muting the influence of the recent -EPOs, +PNAs, -WPOs, -NAOs, and -AOs. It causes storms to cut or hug instead of taking the traditional benchmark tracks. Leaves no room for trough development under the ridges. Since we just get a continuous ridge from the subtropics up into the Arctic. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

None.  If there is a record high temp in bumble Montana, we will 100% see a post in the NY forum about it.  A few record lows last night across NE, silence.  Zero chance this guy would have been too cold.  

It was a nice cool morning for this time of year. Detroit got down to 56F but Ann Arbor hit 46F. So Detroit was closer to a record low this morning (49F) than they will be to a record high Thursday (105F). Why do I bring that up?

I saw a post last night (not here) that the "extreme high temps" Thursday have happened before but are more likely in todays climate. I mean, really? You want to talk about something, talk about the oppressive humidity, which would already have been bad enough but will get a boost in the midwest from peak "corn sweat" season. But a forecast high of 93F on July 24th is news? For comparison, Detroit has hit 95F or higher 315 times since records began in 1874. (yes, I know itll be worse to my south as it usually is, but again, Im concerned about my temps, not elsewhere lol).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like a pattern change is coming as we begin August: 

Is a below average August temperature departure in the cards?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I am thinking that both could be related. Since the WPAC has been rapidly warming under that expanding subtropical ridge building into the mid-latitudes. On the Atlantic side it has been causing the -AOs and -NAOs to link with the Southeast Ridge. So it’s been muting the influence of the recent -EPOs, +PNAs, -WPOs, -NAOs, and -AOs. It causes storms to cut or hug instead of taking the traditional benchmark tracks. Leaves no room for trough development under the ridges. Since we just get a continuous ridge from the subtropics up into the Arctic. 

Yes, agreed. Obviously the general warming is what it is, but I still feel like we will evetually see more variation to the WPO. I know we have talked about that and if it hasn't varied at all a few years into next dedade, then I'll need to reconsider that.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, agreed. Obviously the general warming is what it is, but I still feel like we will evtually see more variation to the WPO. I know we have talked about that and if it hasn't varied at all a few years into next dedade, then I'll need to reconsider that.

We did have the brief -WPO last February. But it couldn’t mute the influence of the subtropical ridge from the EPAC into the Atlantic. Perhaps that raging Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and record WPAC warm pool loads the dice for more +WPOs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did have the brief -WPO last February. But it couldn’t mute the influence of the subtropical ridge from the EPAC into the Atlantic. Perhaps that raging Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and record WPAC warm pool loads the dice for more +WPOs. 

Yea, I'm talking on a seasonal level...brief periods are easily negated by other factors...whether it be a fast jet and/or poorly positioned ridges, etc....when the vast majority of the season is +WPO it loads the dice towards failure for eastern winter enthusiasts.

I agree RE the cause of the +WPO tendency.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Looks like a pattern change is coming as we begin August: 

Is a below average August temperature departure in the cards?

How welcome would that be! It was actually a pretty nice start to June. Hardly used any AC til June 20th or so but since then I haven't turned it off. Even with a few cool nights and pleasant days this week, im like, what's the point?

[FPizz]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How welcome would that be! It was actually a pretty nice start to June. Hardly used any AC til June 20th or so but since then I haven't turned it off. Even with a few cool nights and pleasant days this week, im like, what's the point?

Yeah, I never turn mine off.  If the house cools off, the a/c unit won't click on.  

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, I never turn mine off.  If the house cools off, the a/c unit won't click on.  

Yep and the other issue is even with cooler temps, the sun is so strong it heats the house up quickly.

If I turn it off, like today, it's only off during the mornings and on cloudy days.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Looks like a pattern change is coming as we begin August: 

Is a below average August temperature departure in the cards?

it's hard to be below average in the summer without a very wet month, does it look like we'll get a lot of rain in August?

 

[GaWx]

Nino OHC plunging in mid July!

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, I never turn mine off.  If the house cools off, the a/c unit won't click on.  

Exactly. My house actually cooled to like 65 last night due to the cool air even though I had the AC set on 70 and it didnt run for half the day. 

[csnavywx]

This particular subject was covered in some depth by Mora et. al in 2013:

https://cities-today.com/new-study-predicts-when-climate-change-will-irreversibly-hit-your-city/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Transient climate responses and regional effects will ofc hasten or slow the date. Don't mistake large mid-latitude variability and transient responses for anything other than chance. One day the dice will not land as favorably.

 

Note that this map is RCP 8.5 and running CMIP5. We are below that run in terms of CO2 concentrations, but very near it in terms of total radiative forcing (due to a number of factors) and CMIP6 is running pretty close to reality nowadays.