2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The current steep -PDO drop in June was driven by the very impressive subtropical ridge which went across the whole Northern Hemisphere leading to the record subtropical SSTs.
 

 

 

This is one example of why GW doesn't always mean a slew of cat 5 hurricanes.....the low thermal gradient between the subtropical and tropical ocean is fostering this stifling stability, which is why the tropics are quiet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Oh gosh, I hope not. There is nothing more depressing than that combination. I'll take a colder than average January, December, heck even November or October. Even a 2011-12 type winter would be better than this. A colder than average March after an above average Dec-Feb would be a complete waste.

Personally, I'll take warmer if it means wetter, which it should. Last season was the worst of the past several for me.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Actually some big changes in the ENSO subsurface over the last 2 months. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually some big changes in the ENSO subsurface over the last 2 months. 

Yea, that cooling of the subsurface towards the dateline was expected with the weakening of the WWBs....will probably progress eastward amd at least somewhat upwards.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Actually some big changes in the ENSO subsurface over the last 2 months. 

That’s consistent with this in the upper 300 meters within 180-100W:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

AMJ ENSO (ONI): -0.1C

AMJ RONI: -0.49C

June PDO: -2.51

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is one example of why GW doesn't always mean a slew of cat 5 hurricanes.....the low thermal gradient between the subtropical and tropical ocean is fostering this stifling stability, which is why the tropics are quiet.

It can work both ways like we saw last summer. The record subtropical warmth and stable conditions lead to the lull in activity from late August into early September. But then it became very active later in the season. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

AMJ ENSO (ONI): -0.1C

AMJ RONI: -0.49C

June PDO: -2.51

Thanks!

 1. Based on the graph, June WCS PDO calculated to be ~-1.8. Based on recent relationships between WCS and NOAA, I had said that that likely meant the June NOAA PDO was likely down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range. So, the -2.51 jibes with my expectations.

2. The unrounded AMJ ONI is -0.11. That means RONI minus ONI, -0.38, has narrowed even more. It was -0.43 in MAM, -0.49 in FMA, -0.51 in JFM, and -0.53 in DJF.

[michsnowfreak]

CANSIPS July update remains hellbent on a cold winter in the north.

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Great news. Think of the savings on heating.

I see what you did there .

What a laughable post. Avg Jan temps of 39.5F in cleveland . Only twice have they ever even seen that temp in Jan (1880 & 1932, long ago, so be prepared to be lectured on whats wrong with that data). January and February have been net gains for winter lovers here the past several decades (while Dec has been a net loss). And while its fairly easy for some to just flat out act like the warmer winters/summers pre-1960 didnt exist, its a lot harder to ignore the winters of 2000-2015 and just act like records began in 2016. Because we all remember them. So despite a handful of very mild winters since 2016, still absolutely net gains here for the snowlover.

Here is the change in January temperature at every first order site in Michigan and Ohio for their period of record. There is no cherry picking, no leaving out the sites I dont want to use...this is every one for their POR. Every site in OH has grown colder except Cleveland. Yes, im aware of site changes and what not. But to assert some magical bump of 15F in avg temp is just wild.

MI
Grand Rapids: 1894-2025: -0.7F
Houghton Lake: 1919-2025: -0.1F
Flint: 1921-2025: 0.0F
Detroit: 1874-2025: +0.7F
Saginaw: 1912-2025: +1.3F
Muskegan: 1897-2025: +1.6F
Alpena: 1917-2025: +1.6F
Sault Ste Marie: 1889-2025: +2.3F
Lansing: 1864-2025: +3.5F
Marquette: +5.9F
 

OH
Dayton: 1894-2025: -3.7F
Cincinnati: 1873-2025: -3.0F
Youngstown: 1931-2025: -1.9F
Wilimington, OH: 1918-2025: -1.8F
Toledo: 1874-2025: -1.4F
Mansfield: 1917-2025: -1.2F
Columbus: 1879-2025: -0.5F
Akron: 1888-2025: -0.5F
Cleveland: 1871-2025: +0.9F
 

[raindancewx]

2022/2025 had similar monsoon patterns in old Mexico with giant fetches of moisture running up into the Southwest. We've actually been quite wet since late April. 2mm x 30 = 60 mm above average, that's over 2 inches wetter than average for much of Mexico, in the wet season. A lot of decent snowfall years for the West seem to follow these wetter Junes in Mexico. June 2025 looks like the opposite of the Junes preceding the five best snow years in Philadelphia since 1985. I don't see super favorable outcomes for subtropical moisture feeding nor'easters this winter but we'll see. Sort of expecting a weird winter here - warm but pretty wet. Canadian shows a -PDO neutral those can be pretty good or terrible here - but they're often highly erratic.

Not a PDO thing - 

[snowman19]

Thanks!
 1. Based on the graph, June WCS PDO calculated to be ~-1.8. Based on recent relationships between WCS and NOAA, I had said that that likely meant the June NOAA PDO was likely down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range. So, the -2.51 jibes with my expectations.
2. The unrounded AMJ ONI is -0.11. That means RONI minus ONI, -0.38, has narrowed even more. It was -0.43 in MAM, -0.49 in FMA, -0.51 in JFM, and -0.53 in DJF.

My confidence in a solidly negative PDO winter is growing by the day, -IOD and -PMM seem like good bets as well. As far as ENSO, I’m still favoring a cold-neutral (-ENSO), however I think a weak La Niña is possible, at least in the RONI sense, I can care less what the ONI does. I think the MEI may go into weak Nina territory too given the SOI behavior over the last few months up until the present. The orientation of the ENSO cold anomalies; possible Modoki? Remains to be seen. As far as the Atlantic….the +AMO is never ending

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My confidence in a solidly negative PDO winter is growing by the day, -IOD and -PMM seem like good bets as well. As far as ENSO, I’m still favoring a cold-neutral (-ENSO), however I think a weak La Niña is possible, at least in the RONI sense, I can care less what the ONI does. I think the MEI may go into weak Nina territory too given the SOI behavior over the last few months up until the present. The orientation of the ENSO cold anomalies; possible Modoki? Remains to be seen. As far as the Atlantic….the +AMO is never ending

This extreme subtropical SST warming leads to a semi-permanent -PDO +AMO pattern with amplified subtropical ridges.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This extreme subtropical SST warming leads to a semi-permanent -PDO +AMO pattern with amplified subtropical ridges.

Crazy warm SSTs off the East Coast. Could see some homegrown tropical systems later this season. And with all that ridging some of them could be steered west. 

[snowman19]

 

Yea. That would seemingly fit a descending solar max peak (but still elevated solar and geomag) and -QBO being unfavorable for predominant -AO/-NAO winter blocking. The low arctic sea ice also playing a role IMO

[bluewave]

On 7/2/2025 at 5:09 PM, CP_WinterStorm said:

Does the fact that this -PDO is being driven largely by the strength of the warm anomalies make any difference compared to -PDOs like 2011 where it's the cold anomalies? Anyone know?

This -PDO being driven by the warm SST anomalies from Japan to north of Hawaii since 2019 is something new for us. The pattern has lead to warmer winters and record low snowfall due to the storm track through the Great Lakes and a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Very amplified Aleutian Ridges have become the norm. It has also resulted in the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. So strong subtropical ridges across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. 

 

The previous extended -PDO interval from 2007 to 2013 was more defined by the cold pool west of North America and a weaker warm pool east of Japan. Much weaker Aleutian Ridges and no Southeast Ridge in the East. So we didn’t have the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge.

 

During the extended -PDO phase from 1950 to 1976 there was also a much weaker Aleutian Ridge along with much cooler SSTs in both basins. So there wasn’t any linkage between the Greenland blocking and Southeast Ridge.

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This -PDO being driven by the warm SST anomalies from Japan to north of Hawaii since 2019 is something new for us. The pattern has lead to warmer winters and record low snowfall due to the storm track through the Great Lakes and a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Very amplified Aleutian Ridges have become the norm. It has also resulted in the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. So strong subtropical ridges across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. 

Yeah, it's been a +WPO pattern

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

It can work both ways like we saw last summer. The record subtropical warmth and stable conditions lead to the lull in activity from late August into early September. But then it became very active later in the season. 

Greater variance....same with snowfall.