2025-2026 ENSO

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the more reasonable ask is for a mismatch month....probably January is I had to guess.

Yeah as bluewave says we can look at what the mjo does in Oct to see if we get that kind of mismatch.

I also think we’ll have better blocking because the qbo is negative this time, which is the main difference from last winter and from 22-23. Maybe that means we get an extra episode thrown in, and/or extend each blocking episode by a few days or so. 

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, George BM said:

Lol

 Based on this graph, June WCS PDO calculates to be ~-1.8. That likely puts the June NOAA PDO, the one that the table refers to, way down in the -2.5 to -2.9 range, which is sharply down from the -1.71 of May. The current daily NOAA equivalent is likely down to the upper -3 range!
 
 The lowest daily WCS I’ve seen since starting to track this a couple of years ago is the -3.04 of 5/31/24. The 6/30/25 -3.00 is very close:

[LibertyBell]

On 6/29/2025 at 12:26 PM, roardog said:

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some. 

23-24 was a super el nino? I thought our last one was in 15-16?

[LibertyBell]

On 6/30/2025 at 9:40 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

no that corn and soybean crap makes it much worse, increasing the humidity and turning the region into a sauna.

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just hope we can keep it going.

I'm glad we exceeded 100 even with the wetter weather.

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just hope we can keep it going.

I don't know man, we've had massive flooding and a lightning strike just burned down a house near here tonight.

I like my summers dry, wet summers mean more bugs and then I have to spray pesticides everywhere to kill them off.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I certainly do not argue with the idea of a +NAO/-EPO this season.....just get some semblance of variability with resepct to the PNA and I will roll with that, though folks in Virginia may feel differently.

with the extreme heat we had already in June (matching and even exceeding 2010), I'm optimistic about a -NAO next winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

I like your sense of humor. We would probably have a really good time if we had one of the forum get-togethers. My buddies and I were all pretty big practical jokers back in the school days. 

The patterns over the last decade have really been a teachable moment for all of us. While the climate models have the general idea about warming over time correct, the regional nuances have been pretty far from what the expectations were.

This new subtropical ridging and rapid SST warming in the mid-latitudes wasn’t expected.  The old batch of climate models had the strongest ridging and SST warming further north near the subarctic regions. 

So it’s a bit like running a big science experiment and finding out which ideas were correct and which ones missed the mark.

The new -PDO era in the 2020s is more defined by the warmer WPAC than a cooler EPAC. I think this is why we have been seeing more variability between -PNA intervals and +PNA periods. So we get these quick month to month change ups especially out West. But unfortunately we have still been getting strong Southeast Ridges and Western Atlantic Ridges under both PNA phases. 

 

 

I'm glad we are finally getting a real hot summer here.  I can do without all this rain though, I can't stand how bugs overpopulate in the rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/29/2025 at 8:34 PM, mitchnick said:

Good news. That should give Japan second thoughts before attacking Pearl Harbor again. 

Maybe that was the reason for some of the scorching summers we had in the 40s and 50s (that and all the nuke testing.)

I know this idea has been floated around to explain the extremely hot summers of 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955.

 

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

23-24 was a super el nino? I thought our last one was in 15-16?

-The 23-24 season ONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.95 in NDJ:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

-The 23-24 season RONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.50 in OND:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[GaWx]

I forgot to add 2023-4 MEI bimonthlies, which peaked at only +1.1 in ND:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

@LibertyBell

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well we squeaked out a 9th straight month of +SOI.. 

2024 10    4.09
2024 11    6.55
2024 12   10.84
2025  1    3.47
2025  2    7.67
2025  3    9.60
2025  4    4.73
2025  5    2.64
2025  6    1.71

July 2020 to Feb 2023 we had 32 straight months of +SOI.. so the long term phase here continues to be pretty solid positive. It's coinciding with the PDO over this time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

-The 23-24 season ONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.95 in NDJ:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

-The 23-24 season RONI trimonthlies maxed at +1.50 in OND:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong. 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong. 

Yeah, we had a screaming STJ. Cold air just didn’t line up with it, only when it took a temporary reprieve we got snow twice from northern stream waves that trended south at the last minute.

[roardog]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

23-24 was a super el nino? I thought our last one was in 15-16?

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super. 

And it was only for a month. It needs to sustain +2.0 for multiple months to be considered a super el nino. That was only done in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

Plus, the RONI only reached +1.5 at its peak, which is not only significantly lower than the 4 super el nino years (all of the above years reached at least +2.25), but also lower than every strong el nino year (1957-58, 1965-66, 1986-88, 1991-92, and 2009-10).

Not to mention, the MEI was only a borderline weak/medium el nino. (Of the strong el nino years, only 2009-10 has a comparable MEI peak to 2023-24.)

2023-24 is a strong, but not super, el nino.

[snowman19]

I think the more reasonable ask is for a mismatch month....probably January is I had to guess.

I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

[snowman19]

Yea, no great anticipation with that this season...I know where its headed based on solar. But I think we could steal a round or two of decent blocking early and late season based on QBO data.

I agree with you. Up to this point in time, things seem to be lining up against a -NAO/-AO winter

[bluewave]

We can see how the 500mb patterns have changed during this -PDO interval in the 2020s. Now we get very strong Aleutian Ridges and weaker -PNA troughs out West. This goes to the PNA variability that has been experienced since 2019.

So even with such strong -PDO values, we are getting more changes between +PNA and -PNA. We saw this last winter with the strong to record +PNA for a La Niña. This was also the case with the 20-21 La Niña. Same for January 22.

There has also been the tendency for a much stronger Southeast Ridge than was the case from the 50s into 70s. 

While we have also seen some significant -PNA intervals like in December 2021, the long term trend against these fluctuations is for a more positive PNA. This -PDO era has been more defined by the record marine heatwaves from the Western to Central Pacific. And less of a cold pool formation off the West Coast. 

But not as dramatic as the EA index with the record heatwaves in Europe. The rising heights near the Azores could also be contributing to the more +NAO even though we have seen Greenland blocking intervals.This has also been associated with the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland blocks.
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can see how the 500mb patterns have changed during this -PDO interval in the 2020s. Now we get very strong Aleutian Ridges and weaker -PNA troughs out West. This goes to the PNA variability that has been experienced since 2019.

So even with such strong -PDO values, we are getting more changes between +PNA and -PNA. We saw this last winter with the strong to record +PNA for a La Niña. This was also the case with the 20-21 La Niña. Same for January 22.

There has also been the tendency for a much stronger Southeast Ridge than was the case from the 50s into 70s. 

While we have also seen some significant -PNA intervals like in December 2021, the long term trend against these fluctuations is for a more positive PNA. This -PDO era has been more defined by the record marine heatwaves from the Western to Central Pacific. And less of a cold pool formation off the West Coast. 

But not as dramatic as the EA index with the record heatwaves in Europe. The rising heights near the Azores could also be contributing to the more +NAO even though we have seen Greenland blocking intervals.This has also been associated with the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland blocks.

West-Pacific index looks like this in the Wintertime

It's the reason why the SE ridge has extended north to often link up with Greenland ridging, that and, NAO sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic has often been positive, which enforces a mid-latitude ridge from the US to Europe. 

Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 6 over the same time in the following year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

with the extreme heat we had already in June (matching and even exceeding 2010), I'm optimistic about a -NAO next winter.

 

Yea, I'm optimistic about perhaps a-NAO month and a good period or two, but not the DM period in the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of metrics weren't super positive for the 23-24 El Nino, but we did have major +SSTAs and the global precipitable water broke 15-16's record, as much as 20% greater than the #2 year on record.. so some parts of that El Nino were indeed strong. 

Chris articulated it best when he said that the west warm pool was competing with, and masking the El Nino to an extent....this is why the RONI and especially the MEI were relatively low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

This is why its important to be as multidimensional, exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. 

I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris articulated it best when he said that the west warm pool was competing with, and masking the El Nino to an extent....this is why the RONI and especially the MEI were relatively low.

Someone not heeding the advice below may have been optimistic about the 2023-2024 El Nino due to the belief that the relatively paltry MEI and RONI values were more favorable for cold and snow opportunities in the east. I know that I was. This is a perfect example of why the post below is so crucial. One other peice of advice would be to not be afraid to admit mistakes and never stop learning.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why its important to be as multidimensional, exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. 

I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. Up to this point in time, things seem to be lining up against a -NAO/-AO winter

Yes, but things also appear to be linging up for a decent period or two of -NAO/-AO....it doesn't have to mean a -NAO/-AO season, nor does it have to mean a wall-to-wall omnipotent PV...ins fact, it most often somewhere in between. 

Think eclectic, and non-binary.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t  had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. 

The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. 

The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees. 
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

more +NAO even though we have seen Greenland blocking intervals.

Yes...this fits with what I am saying about a decidedly +NAO season still having a period or two of extensive blocking...which don't have to mean a HECS necessarily, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 8 over the same time in the following year. 

I agree, too....but I would still bet on more snowfall than last year for my locale because I don't think it will be as dry.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Last Summer was hot, but before then, it wasn't anything major.. mostly the higher averages were from min's. The Winter has been ridiculously -PNA and a little +WPO going a long way to extend that SE ridge north. Even them out and it's +3F over 50 years, there have been some really cold periods too. I just think there is too much focus on explainable things acting like it's a whole globe warming trend. Some of these fluctuation patterns have been in fluctuation during the Winter.. now 80% of the months of the whole year since 2013 have been above average.. so I'll consider that we realistically have a 20% chance of having a cold Winter month. But it's not some global happening that pollution is causing a SE ridge, and not over Montana.