2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to parse through analog seasons and determine what value there is to be gleaned from each, and then how to apply it to your forecast.

yes and weighing them relative to each other is also important (as is sometimes applying them to one part of the season vs another.)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/06/strong-consensus-for-marginal-la-nina.html

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun. 

I think the common denominators will be poleward ridging in the Pacific and pronounced period(s) of negative NAO in the midst of a decidedly +NAO season....-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up, which should allow for a much more active storm track in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also think we may see a pretty fast start this December...will get into why later in the season, but it originates from the QBO/solar stuff.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-PNA likely hits hardest when the -NAO shows up

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree, I also think there is an above average tendency for -EPO periods to happen with +NAO.. that is an above average precip pattern in the eastern 1/2. Clippers have become less common though, so the low pressure will likely need to tap into the Gulf. I'm getting a few warm things for Dec, although I know the small sample of -Neutral ENSO and -QBO favors a cold December. 

Agree.

I don't necessarily mean a frigid December...just active and not prohibitively warm.