2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs. 

Forget EWR, they are always hot, it needs to get to JFK with temperatures of 100 or hotter.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

29 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs. 

Is this what happened on 7/22/2011 when EWR got to 108?

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, roardog said:

This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.

That’s the thing though. We have been seeing near to record Southeast Ridges over the last decade with both -PNA and +PNA patterns. So the wavelengths have been shifting to allow for this new circulation pattern.

The Northeast set all time 500mb height record around 599 DM last June with a very strong +PNA. Same for the the all-time June heat in 2021 with a June 500mb height near the record. This time around we look to challenge the 500mb record only a year later with a -PNA and more record heat for June possible.
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Is this what happened on 7/22/2011 when EWR got to 108?

That was one of our last historic heatwaves because the entire region got above 100

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the thing though. We have been seeing near to record Southeast Ridges over the last decade with both -PNA and +PNA patterns. So the wavelengths have been shifting to allow for this new circulation pattern.

The Northeast set all time 500mb height record around 599 DM last June with a very strong +PNA. Same for the the all-time June heat in 2021 with a June 500mb height near the record. This time around we look to challenge the 500mb record only a year later with a -PNA and more record heat for June possible.
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

 

and yet our last real extreme records were from 2011, so I'm not sure how much this translates to the surface.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and yet our last real extreme records were from 2011, so I'm not sure how much this translates to the surface.

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

It looks like more over the top heat, if the heat ridge was strong enough it would have kept the sea breeze away

 

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It translated to the surface in June 2021 with all-time monthly high temperature records around NYC. EWR ranked #1 and LGA #2.  Caribou tied their all-time June high in 2024 with the record Southeast Ridge year. Boston also tied their all-time June high in 2021 and ranked 3rd warmest last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	2024	100	0
-	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0
3	1988	99	0
-	1956	99	0
-	1943	99	0
6	2012	98	0
-	1959	98	0
7	2024	97	0
-	2011	97	0
-	2003	97	0
-	1999	97	0
-	1994	97	0
-	1964	97	0
-	1961	97	0
-	1953	97	0
-	1945	97	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	96	0
-	2020	96	0
-	1944	96	0
2	2023	93	0
-	1995	93	0
-	1988	93	0
-	1983	93	0
3	2021	92	0
-	2003	92	0
-	1979	92	0
-	1963	92	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	100	0
-	1952	100	0
-	1925	100	0
2	1933	99	0
3	2024	98	0
-	1988	98	0
-	1984	98	0
-	1953	98	0
-	1919	98	0
-	1874	98	0

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high). Just an astounding run. I expect more record-breaking heat in the mountains of northern Pennsylvania with this upcoming heat ridge. What was once without precedence is now a yearly occurrence!

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So, the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high).

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

You can see the rural effect warming in your data for Caribou, Maine as well. Another remote community near the Canadian border. Look at all those record-breaking June temps in recent years! The complete opposite of what the UHI lie would suggest!

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would argue it translated to the surface in 2022 & 2024, as well. If you look at Bradford, PA, useful as one of the more remote and sparsely populated locations, in the Eastern CONUS. We see it had never hit 90F in the month of June dating back to 1958 in the month of June prior to 2022. The monthly record of 89F was tied in 2021. In 2022, it reached 90F twice - including a record-breaking 93F on the 22nd. It reached 90F last June an incredible three times! Additionally, it reached 89F once each in 2022 & 2024 (the former monthly record high). Just an astounding run. I expect more record-breaking heat in the mountains of northern Pennsylvania with this upcoming heat ridge. What was once without precedence is now a yearly occurrence!

I like to think of it as rural effect warming. Certain persons/entities claim warming is being enhanced or caused by a so-called urban heat island effect, but then when you look at the actual numbers, it's often the most remote locations breaking records all the time. So, the urban heating theory makes no sense. If anything, modern technology and siting/exposure standards are such that the UHI signal is less impactful as it was in the past.

this reminds of coastal huggers that make it rain at the coast while it snows inland.  That is what this kind of heat reminds me of.