2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ray you must have done really well in 1993-94 too.

 

My area was a local min....the Worcester hills and Boston area down to the south short did much better. i was only  likw 10-15" above average...pretty blah. Similar to 2013-2014 in that regard....those are my two most overrated winters...they both lack signature events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Negative PNA

After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again

June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA

I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. 

Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. 

There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite]

US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for. 

Yea, I'm going to bet against a -NAO at this juncture, but will see once I do my polar domain research and you get your index calculation in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So we have a few that good winters for both of us.

I only listed what I consider A winters.  A few of the other ones you listed were B+ here, among them 2004-05, 2008-09 and 2000-01. 2003-04 also fits into that group.

 

For my current location, you can probably exchange 1995-1996 for 2000-2001...my area now did much worse in the Jan 7, 1996 blizzard and much better in the March 5, 2001 event than my former locale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

January 2016 was like February 1983 on steroids.  The added moisture with that storm was definitely CC induced, there was a research paper on it.

30.7 inches of snow with 3.00 inches of liquid equivalent at JFK

 

February 1983 Megalopolis event was very good for my area (about 18"), but January 2016 was a fringe job....I got like 2" of pixie dust.

Too bad the southeast ridging wasn't as strong in this "new climate" as it was back in 1983 ; )

[bluewave]

On 6/1/2025 at 10:50 AM, michsnowfreak said:

100% disagree. 

You're constant relying on a reported yearly global temp to dictate a local areas climate makes zero sense. You state way too many opinions as matter of fact.

But the bottom line to assert that everyone is in a different climate than 2010 is downright nuts. In fact, since 2010 i have seen more severe cold snaps than I did in the several decades before then. This morning we saw a low of 42 at Detroit with 30s in outlying areas for the coldest June temp since 2003. 

I can sense your disappointment that NYC did not get a warmer than avg winter in 2024-25 as you counted on to keep up your warm streak, so we have turned the tables now from the expectations for a torch winter in '24-25 to the reality that it was far from torch. So NOW we hear that 2024-25 would've been 2013-14 if it happened 20 years earlier .

Oh and by the way. Ive been on weather forums since 2002. So I am able to clearly remember the "winters are no more" clown talk of the late 1990s. Then we lived through a historic stretch of winters which ended a short decade ago but that some now try to sweep under the rug and discuss the point of no return. It's amazing that we can analyze winters from 130 years ago but minimize the historically severe nature of winters from 10-15 years ago.

The global temperatures that I am citing are directly related to the ones experienced across the CONUS. The days are long past when the concept of a warming climate remains an abstraction. Now it dictates the ranges of winter temperatures and patterns along with other seasons.This is why the winters across the globe and the CONUS are much warmer with each new jump in global temperatures. 

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. 

This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. 

Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978.

Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895.

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. 

The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The global temperatures that I am citing are directly related to the ones experienced across the CONUS. The days are long past when the concept of a warming climate remains an abstraction. Now it dictates the ranges of winter temperatures and patterns along with other seasons.This is why the winters across the globe and the CONUS are much warmer with each new jump in global temperatures. 

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. 

This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. 

Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978.

Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895.

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. 

The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer. 

 

 

I agree with all of this.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth  in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel. 

That type of winter would almost certainly be a blowtorch winter in the Eastern US in today's warming climate. All you have to do is look at 2016-17, which was a similar-type winter to 98-99, and that torched in January and February. If not for March, this would have been a low-snow season in Philly and NYC. In places south of Philly, 16-17 was a Top 10 least snowy winter in Baltimore and DC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That type of winter would almost certainly be a blowtorch winter in the Eastern US in today's warming climate. All you have to do is look at 2016-17, which was a similar-type winter to 98-99, and that torched in January and February. If not for March, this would have been a low-snow season in Philly and NYC. In places south of Philly, 16-17 was a Top 10 least snowy winter in Baltimore and DC.

It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

February 1983 Megalopolis event was very good for my area (about 18"), but January 2016 was a fringe job....I got like 2" of pixie dust.

Too bad the southeast ridging wasn't as strong in this "new climate" as it was back in 1983 ; )

That storm in February 1983 was my absolute favorite storm growing up, most of the rest of the 80s sucked for snowfall here.

February 1983 is what introduced thundersnow into my lexicon lol.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This would have been a slightly cooler shitty winter in 1898-1899...people get carried away with the CC crap. It was a bad pattern, regardless of the warming climate.

+WPO/+EPO/+AO+NAO/-PNA/-PDO and a strong modoki La Nina, but sure...lets focus on CC. That season was an instruction manual on how to avert winter in the NE US.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My area was a local min....the Worcester hills and Boston area down to the south short did much better. i was only  likw 10-15" above average...pretty blah. Similar to 2013-2014 in that regard....those are my two most overrated winters...they both lack signature events.

Yes, nothing annoys me more with winter than having a somewhat snowy winter without a big event as the centerpiece.  It's why 2002-03 ranks so high for me, it had snow on Christmas, the big 26 inch PD2 in the middle of winter and a snowstorm to close out the season in April.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This would have been a slightly cooler shitty winter in 1898-1899...people get carried away with the CC crap. It was a bad pattern, regardless of the warming climate.

Yes, we had bad winters like 1998-99 during the 1950s too.  Winters which lack snow during DJF and deliver a parting shot in March have happened before and will happen again.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, nothing annoys me more with winter than having a somewhat snowy winter without a big event as the centerpiece.  It's why 2002-03 ranks so high for me, it had snow on Christmas, the big 26 inch PD2 in the middle of winter and a snowstorm to close out the season in April.

 

Eh....the Xmas event occured later in the Xmas day and was heavily tained with IP for me, and I got crewed in PD II. That winter was good, but left a lot on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, we had bad winters like 1998-99 during the 1950s too.  Winters which lack snow during DJF and deliver a parting shot in March have happened before and will happen again.

 

It will never end well in the NE US for fans of winter when you have death-star vortex INVO Alaska and the Bering Sea...never has, never will...I don't care which climate era you are in.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The global temperatures that I am citing are directly related to the ones experienced across the CONUS. The days are long past when the concept of a warming climate remains an abstraction. Now it dictates the ranges of winter temperatures and patterns along with other seasons.This is why the winters across the globe and the CONUS are much warmer with each new jump in global temperatures. 

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. 

This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. 

Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978.

Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895.

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. 

The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer. 

 

 

So we need to find some way to prevent or block super el ninos from happening to keep the climate from having these large jumps?  How long does the climate take to recover from these environmentally catastrophic super el ninos and has there any research been done to modify, weaken or block them from happening?

By the way I see how 1982-83 affected the climate for the entire 80s (low snowfall decade) but 1997-98 seems to have had a shorter time before we recovered as the entire 2002-03 through 2004-5 period was quite snowy here.

 

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....the Xmas event occured later in the Xmas day and was heavily tained with IP for me, and I got crewed in PD II. That winter was good, but left a lot on the table.

Oh that sucks, that el nino was likely too strong for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh that sucks, that el nino was likely too strong for you.

PD II was just bad luck...I was in a subsidence area of around a foot.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So we need to find some way to prevent or block super el ninos from happening to keep the climate from having these large jumps?  How long does the climate take to recover from these environmentally catastrophic super el ninos and has there any research been done to modify, weaken or block them from happening?

By the way I see how 1982-83 affected the climate for the entire 80s (low snowfall decade) but 1997-98 seems to have had a shorter time before we recovered as the entire 2002-03 through 2004-5 period was quite snowy here.

 

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

I don't think strong El Ninos are the catalyst for global warming, rather I just think global warming manifests most prominetly during high-end warm ENSO events.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think strong El Ninos are the catalyst for global warming, rather I just think global warming manifests most prominetly during high-end warm ENSO events.

Yes the high end el ninos create these jumps that accentuate its effects even more.  It makes me wonder if these high end el ninos are increasing in frequency too.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PD II was just bad luck...I was in a subsidence area of around a foot.

I think this also happened to you in 2010-11 for the Boxing Day event.

[FPizz]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

All of those great except the infamous nightmare of 1995-96. Funny story. In 1994-95 (I was 11) i would sneak outside and measure snow on the back porch and my dad would get mad thinking I was tracking snow in. But the next winter my mom said I could measure with my budding interest in weather, so that began my now 30 winters and counting of continuous snow record (I bought a house a mile from my parents so my record is basically the same location). So 1995-96 was my inaugural year. In the years before internet and stuff i primarily relied on TWC. And i remember vaguely seeing coverage of these monster snowstorms and I kept thinking, why is everything missing us? I ended up with 31.3" but 12" of that came in March, including a 7" power crusher on March 20th. Even in January it was hard to enjoy back to back 2-inch snowfalls knowing they were originally forecast as big storms for us that veered south last minute. In the years since I was able to figure out how the pattern really was, and im SO glad I've never seen anything like it since!

I started to measure at age 9 back in 87/88.  My first year was incomplete, so I used Rutgers data since the college was partly in my town.  My older brother was big into weather and even went to college for it, so we were both little snow weenies from an early age.  My first 4 seasons measuring all pretty much stunk, 12.5, 17, 20 and 15".  Once I was married and moved, I only moved about 14 miles west, so the data is similar.  Though, if I had moved to where I am now, Boxing Day here was only 7" and 14 miles east where I was was 24".  I would have flipped out!  But that goes to show you, using one location and using blanket statements like the whole area is in a new climate is just not the way to go all the time and doesn't tell the whole story.  

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So we have a few that good winters for both of us.

I only listed what I consider A winters.  A few of the other ones you listed were B+ here, among them 2004-05, 2008-09 and 2000-01. 2003-04 also fits into that group.

 

By the way, 1993-94 was definitely a solid winter here. I was quite young (10) so I remember only bits and pieces. It had a 10" snowstorm in Jan and 2-storms of 6" in Feb, plus the coldest day of the 20th century at Detroit (Jan 19th, high -4F, low -20F). It was certainly one of the best winters of the 1990s, but between my young age and the fact that there were just too many good 2000s/2010s winters, that even if i let it leapfrog 1998-99 as best winter of the '90s and allow for not remembering it all, it could still be no higher than #10 on my alltime list (and possibly lower), whereas I know its one of the favorites on the east coast.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That storm in February 1983 was my absolute favorite storm growing up, most of the rest of the 80s sucked for snowfall here.

February 1983 is what introduced thundersnow into my lexicon lol.

 

I can gladly say I dont remember 1982-83, as my mom was pregnant with me haha. But I will say for as much as I dog on 1995-96, at face value 1982-83 was absolutely a much shittier winter. It could have easily been the least snowy winter of all-time (just 9" thru 3/19) but heavy spring snow let us finish at a still terrible 20". But the fact that most of winter was bare after a 64F Christmas is just disgusting. But the winter of 1995-96 was a cold winter with a parade of storms all around us, whereas 1982-83 seemed more like a mild winter with 1 great storm in the east. 1995-96 was the definition of screw zone, but SE MI really hasnt had a screwzone winter since, so I guess its better to let it all out at once  (by screwzone I mean how we performed compared to nearby areas).

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I started to measure at age 9 back in 87/88.  My first year was incomplete, so I used Rutgers data since the college was partly in my town.  My older brother was big into weather and even went to college for it, so we were both little snow weenies from an early age.  My first 4 seasons measuring all pretty much stunk, 12.5, 17, 20 and 15".  Once I was married and moved, I only moved about 14 miles west, so the data is similar.  Though, if I had moved to where I am now, Boxing Day here was only 7" and 14 miles east where I was was 24".  I would have flipped out!  But that goes to show you, using one location and using blanket statements like the whole area is in a new climate is just not the way to go all the time and doesn't tell the whole story.  

Thats awesome. Ive ran across some others who keep personal records. So cool to have us snow weenies that do that. If I am out of town and its going to snow, I have a standby observer for me too lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this also happened to you in 2010-11 for the Boxing Day event.

Yes, but it was more widespread in that system because it was occluded, so there was just narrow area near the coast that got creamed under the low level deformation.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the high end el ninos create these jumps that accentuate its effects even more.  It makes me wonder if these high end el ninos are increasing in frequency too.

 

Not really. Here are the high end el ninos (+1.5) since 1949-50 (bold are the very strong ones +2):

1957-58 (temperature jump: no)

1965-66 (temperature jump: no)

1972-73 (temperature jump: maybe)

1982-83 (temperature jump: yes)

1986-88 (temperature jump: yes)

1991-92 (temperature jump: no, but due to Mt. Pinatubo)

1997-98 (temperature jump: yes)

2009-10 (temperature jump: no, but 2010 was the warmest year on record at that point)

2015-16 (temperature jump: yes)

2023-24 (temperature jump: yes)

The gap between strong el ninos seem uniform (although there was a higher frequency in the 80s and 90s, due to the +PDO period), and the gap between super el ninos is actually increasing (10 between 72-73 and 82-83, 15 between 82-83 and 97-98, and 18 between 97-98 and 15-16. We are currently at 9 and counting since 15-16.)

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Not really. Here are the high end el ninos (+1.5) since 1949-50 (bold are the very strong ones +2):

1957-58 (temperature jump: no)

1965-66 (temperature jump: no)

1972-73 (temperature jump: maybe)

1982-83 (temperature jump: yes)

1986-88 (temperature jump: yes)

1991-92 (temperature jump: no, but due to Mt. Pinatubo)

1997-98 (temperature jump: yes)

2009-10 (temperature jump: no, but 2010 was the warmest year on record at that point)

2015-16 (temperature jump: yes)

2023-24 (temperature jump: yes)

The gap between strong el ninos seem uniform (although there was a higher frequency in the 80s and 90s, due to the +PDO period), and the gap between super el ninos is actually increasing (10 between 72-73 and 82-83, 15 between 82-83 and 97-98, and 18 between 97-98 and 15-16. We are currently at 9 and counting since 15-16.)

what about super (+2) el ninos?

 

I think only 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 ?

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was a blowtoch then....the winter sucked.

The first half of January was rocking in my neck of the woods. Maybe overall it was warm, but we had storm after storm to start the year. Probably the best two week stretch other than February 2010.

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can gladly say I dont remember 1982-83, as my mom was pregnant with me haha. But I will say for as much as I dog on 1995-96, at face value 1982-83 was absolutely a much shittier winter. It could have easily been the least snowy winter of all-time (just 9" thru 3/19) but heavy spring snow let us finish at a still terrible 20". But the fact that most of winter was bare after a 64F Christmas is just disgusting. But the winter of 1995-96 was a cold winter with a parade of storms all around us, whereas 1982-83 seemed more like a mild winter with 1 great storm in the east. 1995-96 was the definition of screw zone, but SE MI really hasnt had a screwzone winter since, so I guess its better to let it all out at once  (by screwzone I mean how we performed compared to nearby areas).

2015-16 even worse than 1982-83, same one big storm winter

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The first half of January was rocking in my neck of the woods. Maybe overall it was warm, but we had storm after storm to start the year. Probably the best two week stretch other than February 2010.

Yes, the winter overall sucked.

You are in the mid atl, I assume?