2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't say that. Especially northern areas are still cold enough to benefit from increased moisture availability, but the baseline climate of more southern Mid Atlantic climates has shifted so much that significant snowfall in even a "normal" temperature regime requires lots of needle threading. Certainly, they could still do well in a particularly cold winter [relative to the norms].

I just wanted to examine what Chuck had posited a few pages back with a possible shift in PDO/AMO. It might be rather surprising but each of the last 4 decades in the east has winded up above normal for temperatures in the wintertime, relative to the existing normals.

By the 2030s, normals will be too high for such a scenario to even be possible. That is pretty declarative. 

Anyway, good luck with that and I hope we area alive to see what happens.  Now back to ENSO chatting.  

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

By the 2030s, normals will be too high for such a scenario to even be possible. That is pretty declarative. 

Anyway, good luck with that and I hope we area alive to see what happens.  Now back to ENSO chatting.  

Again, you are reading things that I didn't say. I mean a 1995-1996 or 2009-2010 type year. As @bluewavepointed out, even relative to 2013, the available pool of arctic air is much smaller. If the 2030s are as much above normal as recent decades, PHL could see a decadal winter mean of ~38F. That is on par with the late 20th century average at Richmond, Virginia. Snowfall averaged around 16-17 inches at Richmond in this era, with high snowfall years around 40" or so. This really isn't super different from PHL's average of ~21-22 inches, but I would probably expect mean snowfall to fall more into that range over the next 15 years. And PHL has only seen a few years with substantially more than 40" in the last few decades anyway.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Anyway here is the last month and a half of TAO data showing the increase in OHC GAWX just showed. This should still maintain a Nina-like atmosphere through at least most of the summer would not be surprised if we start to see some flare ups of Nino-like progression into Fall just not enough to flip the scrip

The WPAC warm pool seems to be driving the very potent La Niña background this spring. Notice how we continue to see the Aleutian Ridge displaced further west than usual. Looks like the very strong IO into WPAC forcing wants to gradually shift east as we head into early June. Perhaps an attempt for some WWB activity which could weaken  the trades a bit from the strong present levels.  Whether the ENSO regions register -0.5 or +0.5 in the coming months may not matter as much as how warm the WPAC is which would drive the La Niña background even if the ENSO regions are technically neutral.

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

For instance, here is Detroit:

1961-1990 average wintertime mean is 25.4F.

Incomplete 2001-2030 average is currently up to 28.6F (+3.2F over 1961-1990)

And here we go YET AGAIN highlighting the coldest stretch of winters on record. For starters, DTW wasnt even the official climate site for Detroit until 1966-67. It was so rural that as has been pointed out ENDLESS times it was often a cold spot in the region with amazing radiational cooling (similar to present day Ann Arbor)...its no longer the case. All you have to do is compare the difference in temps between DTW and several other sites from the 1960s/70s and then 2010s/20s and you will see the margin is much smaller now.

But these assertions about '90s winters lately are just WILD to me. The 1990s winters were EASILY the worst decade of winters of my lifetime, both the warmest AND least snowy (2020s TBD). 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s were far superior - and guess what, 2020s are only half over. I will comment on them in 2030 when they are over and given the same playing field as the rest.

As it stands now, of FULL decades, the warmest winters on record are the 1990s, followed by the 1950s then 1930s.

AVG DJF WINTER TEMPS & annual snowfall - Detroit
1870s – 25.2 (*1874-79)
1880s – 27.6F - 43.1"
1890s – 26.5F - 42.7"
1900s – 24.9F - 46.3"
1910s – 25.5F - 39.7"
1920s – 25.8F - 46.1"
1930s – 28.3F - 32.9"
1940s – 27.0F - 27.8"
1950s – 28.6F - 37.8"
1960s – 26.2F - 31.8"
1970s – 24.8F - 45.6"
1980s – 25.9F - 45.2"
1990s – 29.2F - 37.9"
2000s – 27.7F - 45.3"
2010s – 28.2F - 49.9"
2020s – 30.5F - 35.5" (*only thru '24-25)

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Anyway here is the last month and a half of TAO data showing the increase in OHC GAWX just showed. This should still maintain a Nina-like atmosphere through at least most of the summer would not be surprised if we start to see some flare ups of Nino-like progression into Fall just not enough to flip the script.

So youre thinking that means we are in for an ENSO neutral winter of some sort?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great, the climatechanger and Bluewave taking over the ENSO thread.....stand by for mass suicide attempts.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

In a warming climate, I think a 2009-10 type year in the future is going to be near impossible. We're never going to get a strong el nino produce such a cold winter in the CONUS. Just look at 2015-16 and 2023-24, which were record breaking warm winters in the CONUS.

If we are to get a cold winter in the CONUS in the future, it will almost certainly be a la nina year, and most likely a strong one (like 2007-08 or 2010-11).

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

And here we go YET AGAIN highlighting the coldest stretch of winters on record. For starters, DTW wasnt even the official climate site for Detroit until 1966-67. It was so rural that as has been pointed out ENDLESS times it was often a cold spot in the region with amazing radiational cooling (similar to present day Ann Arbor)...its no longer the case. All you have to do is compare the difference in temps between DTW and several other sites from the 1960s/70s and then 2010s/20s and you will see the margin is much smaller now.

But these assertions about '90s winters lately are just WILD to me. The 1990s winters were EASILY the worst decade of winters of my lifetime, both the warmest AND least snowy (2020s TBD). 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s were far superior - and guess what, 2020s are only half over. I will comment on them in 2030 when they are over and given the same playing field as the rest.

As it stands now, of FULL decades, the warmest winters on record are the 1990s, followed by the 1950s then 1930s.

AVG DJF WINTER TEMPS & annual snowfall - Detroit
1870s – 25.2 (*1874-79)
1880s – 27.6F - 43.1"
1890s – 26.5F - 42.7"
1900s – 24.9F - 46.3"
1910s – 25.5F - 39.7"
1920s – 25.8F - 46.1"
1930s – 28.3F - 32.9"
1940s – 27.0F - 27.8"
1950s – 28.6F - 37.8"
1960s – 26.2F - 31.8"
1970s – 24.8F - 45.6"
1980s – 25.9F - 45.2"
1990s – 29.2F - 37.9"
2000s – 27.7F - 45.3"
2010s – 28.2F - 49.9"
2020s – 30.5F - 35.5" (*only thru '24-25)

Lol, calm down. Here is U of Mich - Ann Arbor coop site.

At U of M, the average increased from 25.7F in 1961-1990 to 27.9F in the most recent 25 years (+2.2F). That lends some credence to your theory; however, there is an uncorrected non-climatic bias in this data. The early data is based on an observation time [set max] of 5 pm, versus a standard 24-hour day (see, e.g., below). This results in a warming of about 0.5C/0.9F relative to a midnight to 11:59 p.m. day.

Also, here is nearby Toledo, Ohio. The increase is even more substantial than Detroit (+3.8F).

Let's play find the Urban Heat Island effect at Toledo Express Airport. It's surrounded by woods and farms, and shows even more warming relative to DTW.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Lol - I think I may have triggered CloudFlare due to too many linked images. Regardless, NCEI lists the DJF mean for Michigan's Division 10 [Southeast Lower division] for 1961-1990 as 23.6F, and for 2001-2025 as 26.9F, which is an increase of 3.3F. This is actually slightly more than DTW's increase. I guess NCEI is in on the conspiracy!

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lol, calm down. Here is U of Mich - Ann Arbor coop site.

At U of M, the average increased from 25.7F in 1961-1990 to 27.9F in the most recent 25 years (+2.2F). That lends some credence to your theory; however, there is an uncorrected non-climatic bias in this data. The early data is based on an observation time [set max] of 5 pm, versus a standard 24-hour day (see, e.g., below). This results in a warming of about 0.5C/0.9F relative to a midnight to 11:59 p.m. day.

Also, here is nearby Toledo, Ohio. The increase is even more substantial than Detroit (+3.8F).

Let's play find the Urban Heat Island effect at Toledo Express Airport. It's surrounded by woods and farms, and shows even more warming relative to DTW.

 

 

 

You just dont stop. I know a met (used to post here, doesnt anymore like so many others) who worked for DTX from 1974-2010 and he always talked about the increasing UHI at DTW. You dont seem to understand that regardless of the surrounding area, when an airport expands and becomes a concrete jungle that it didnt used to be, it will affect particularly nighttime temps. Funny you didnt bring up Detroit City like you sometimes like to when it fits your theme. The avg min temp at DET is 1.0F warmer but at DTW it is 3.9F warmer for the two periods you unsurprisingly chose. But the max temp is identical at both- 2.4F warmer. Its been noted multiple times by people that actually live here and observer the weather how the lows at DTW were insane in the 1960s-70s compared to surrounding area.

Although, as I recall, before you hijacked this thread and veered OT into your routine 1961-90 circle jerk, the conversation wasnt about temps, it was about snow (remember, you incorrectly said 1990s were "way" snowier). Why did you not include the snowfall for those same periods? I guess I will have to. 

No site changes or observation measurement changes at DTW or FNT (cant say for ARB).

DTW snowfall
1961-1990: 41.5”
2001-2030: 45.8”

FNT snowfall
1961-1990: 48.9”
2001-2030: 54.8”

ARB snowfall
1961-1990: 42.3”
2001-2030: 60.8”

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

In a warming climate, I think a 2009-10 type year in the future is going to be near impossible. We're never going to get a strong el nino produce such a cold winter in the CONUS. Just look at 2015-16 and 2023-24, which were record breaking warm winters in the CONUS.

If we are to get a cold winter in the CONUS in the future, it will almost certainly be a la nina year, and most likely a strong one (like 2007-08 or 2010-11).

I dont disagree that its almost unheard of to get such a cold winter from such a strong Nino, but "if" we get a cold winter in the conus is such a ridiculous statement, unless you mead CONUS-WIDE. Obviously cold winters will happen. And to be honest, outside of the rarity that was the late 1970s, if you live in the east you would usually WANT the west to be warmer than avg. It would likely create a greater likelihood of some good storms.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The WPAC warm pool seems to be driving the very potent La Niña background this spring. Notice how we continue to see the Aleutian Ridge displaced further west than usual. Looks like the very strong IO into WPAC forcing wants to gradually shift east as we head into early June. Perhaps an attempt for some WWB activity which could weaken  the trades a bit from the strong present levels.  Whether the ENSO regions register -0.5 or +0.5 in the coming months may not matter as much as how warm the WPAC is which would drive the La Niña background even if the ENSO regions are technically neutral.

 

 

 

We have seen this back and forth so much recently I am not confident this holds at all but for the mean time yes we are still having a La Nina atmosphere, even while weak to non existent SST profile, still holding the helm. Slow fade into Fall to neutral/warm status and maybe even a quick flare up of Nino like conditions atmospherically. No guarantee but the way things want to try and setup it seems this is possible. 

The biggest tell tale right now is the lack of WPAC typhoons should hit the record with no issue. Thoughts haven't changed in that aspect. There is no doubt though the warm pool has largely shifted now comes if it rebuilds in any meaningful way or we have another episode of end of summer/ fall push again.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

So youre thinking that means we are in for an ENSO neutral winter of some sort?

Yea I guess it will technically still register ENSO neutral but with a flare to Nino style is my current thought. We really may see the battle re establish again where we see a back and forth like last year. MJO is dead so it will be interesting if we follow a similar path as last year where a weak wave started moving again come end of June into July. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great, the climatechanger and Bluewave taking over the ENSO thread.....stand by for mass suicide attempts.

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We have seen this back and forth so much recently I am not confident this holds at all but for the mean time yes we are still having a La Nina atmosphere, even while weak to non existent SST profile, still holding the helm. Slow fade into Fall to neutral/warm status and maybe even a quick flare up of Nino like conditions atmospherically. No guarantee but the way things want to try and setup it seems this is possible. 

The biggest tell tale right now is the lack of WPAC typhoons should hit the record with no issue. Thoughts haven't changed in that aspect. There is no doubt though the warm pool has largely shifted now comes if it rebuilds in any meaningful way or we have another episode of end of summer/ fall push again.

Yea I guess it will technically still register ENSO neutral but with a flare to Nino style is my current thought. We really may see the battle re establish again where we see a back and forth like last year. MJO is dead so it will be interesting if we follow a similar path as last year where a weak wave started moving again come end of June into July. 

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. 

But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

In a warming climate, I think a 2009-10 type year in the future is going to be near impossible. We're never going to get a strong el nino produce such a cold winter in the CONUS. Just look at 2015-16 and 2023-24, which were record breaking warm winters in the CONUS.

If we are to get a cold winter in the CONUS in the future, it will almost certainly be a la nina year, and most likely a strong one (like 2007-08 or 2010-11).

2015-2016 was the strongest El Nino on record and 2023-2024 was during a strong cold phase PDO....this is a silly statement.

Now, if you want to tell me that 2023-2024 was so much warmer than 1972-1973, and 2015-2016 than 1997-1998 due to CC, okay....but don't compare two entirely different type of El Nino evolutions. Its a lazy, ill informed approach.

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. 

But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

We would need to start seeing signs emerge if it was to tilt one way or the other more than just neutral. Nothing is catching my eye and overall as Bluewave has said it does look like things want to try to progress eastward in the tropics and switch things up a bit but the subsurface would not be super conducive to produce a weak or moderate El Nino right now if that were to actually start to show up.

I think it is important to remember that La Nina is just a further enhanced state of what base state looks like as 40/70 has mentioned it is important on location of oceanic and even atmospheric features that dictate overall how things progress. We are pushing out from the spring barrier so we should start to see some signs emerge, what they are yet is anyone's guess.

I gotta get to bed though I work tonight so ill be back on later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. 

But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

It depends on the polar domain.........I don't think we will get a lot of help there, so we'd have to hope that the extra tropical Pacific continues to transition. You probably have more leeway than the east coast, but even you would want to see a -WPO take shape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wait until we near solar min and swtich back to Pac cold phse in several more years.....get an apprciably strong Modoki El Nino and we'll do just fine.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It depends on the polar domain.........I don't think we will get a lot of help there, so we'd have to hope that the extra tropical Pacific continues to transition. You probably have more leeway than the east coast, but even you would want to see a -WPO take shape.

True. Hopefully the Pacific is more favorable. 

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait until we near solar min in several more years.....get an apprciably strong Modoki El Nino and we'll do just fine.

I can't wait for one of those winters where the coldest anomalies on the globe spill into the US, giving a brutal winter and TCC and company will distraughtly be posting how warm it is elsewhere on the globe. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can't wait for one of those winters where the coldest anomalies on the globe spill into the US, giving a brutal winter and TCC and company will distraughtly be posting how warm it is elsewhere on the globe. 

One thing I am 100% with @bluewave on is that the west PAC holds the key to change.....we aren't going to see a great winter until that changes. But the ironic thing is that he points that out, and then in the same breath identifies past instances of -NAO/+PNA that peformed better to illustrate the point that fruitful patterns of the past are no longer producing. Well, no shit.....they were more favorable looking around the Bering Sea. Low heights in that area are killing us....it remained a constant last season, which in conjunction with the predominately +NAO is why we saw an inland storm track.  I think the West Pacific warmth correlates to +WPO...we need to see that cool down, or else it really limits how effective any periods of -NAO/+PNA can be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess I agree with him that the recent -NAO/+PNA periods haven't been producing, but I'm not sure he agrees with me that a flip in the WPO would largely remedy that...aside from some marginal events that are growing ever more difficult to tilt favorably in a warmer atmosphere. However, I think the storm track issue is largely tied to the +WPO/NAO. IOW, I'm confident we will get BM tracks if we could muster a -WPO/-NAO/+PNA.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Most recent event by ENSO state

Strong el nino: 2023-24 (super el nino: 2015-16)

Moderate el nino: 2002-03

Weak el nino: 2018-19 (possibly continued into 2019-20?)

ENSO neutral: 2024-25 (event currently in progress)

Weak la nina: 2016-18

Moderate la nina: 2020-23

Strong la nina: 2010-11

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Most recent event by ENSO state

Strong el nino: 2023-24 (super el nino: 2015-16)

Moderate el nino: 2002-03

Weak el nino: 2018-19 (possibly continued into 2019-20?)

ENSO neutral: 2024-25 (event currently in progress)

Weak la nina: 2016-18

Moderate la nina: 2020-23

Strong la nina: 2010-11

2006-2007 moderate El Nino...also with -PDO like 2023-2024 and 1972-1973.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I just wanted to examine what Chuck had posited a few pages back with a possible shift in PDO/AMO. It might be rather surprising but each of the last 4 decades in the east has winded up above normal for temperatures in the wintertime, relative to the existing normals.

I think the more realistic scenario is by the time the decadal NAO shifts to negative (could be 20 years), the global temperature would have caught up with the impacts of the index, neutralizing it a little bit. However, this 7-10 year snow drought is so extreme, that we will probably see a bump when more -NAO conditions prevail. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess I agree with him that the recent -NAO/+PNA periods haven't been producing, but I'm not sure he agrees with me that a flip in the WPO would largely remedy that...aside from some marginal events that are growing ever more difficult to tilt favorably in a warmer atmosphere. However, I think the storm track issue is largely tied to the +WPO/NAO. IOW, I'm confident we will get BM tracks if we could muster a -WPO/-NAO/+PNA.

All good points. There is way, WAY too much focusing by some on how much a temp has risen at any given location than there is to the overall pattern. The snow season spans a minimum of half the year for most northern locations, same as it always has. The key is the pattern, the indices, the storm tracks, the available moisture. Its actually gotten comical how some have tried to push the record snow from a decade ago as being in the far distant past or in a different era. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

All good points. There is way, WAY too much focusing by some on how much a temp has risen at any given location than there is to the overall pattern. The snow season spans a minimum of half the year for most northern locations, same as it always has. The key is the pattern, the indices, the storm tracks, the available moisture. Its actually gotten comical how some have tried to push the record snow from a decade ago as being in the far distant past or in a different era. 

If we could’ve gotten any of the colder periods this winter to match with decent moisture it would’ve been a 40-50” snow winter in NYC. Instead we had the roaring Pacific destructively interfere potential setups to death over and over, favor more garbage SWFEs and keep other storms suppressed that could form. I’m not as concerned about the rising average temps (although that’s of course hampering our making any marginal temp setup work) as getting the Pacific to slow down and allow amplified setups in a good location for B/M tracks. We can get absolutely blitzed by a storm or two and end up well above average like in 15-16 despite near record warmth overall. Feb 2016 was also an underrated snowy month around NYC and east. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One thing I am 100% with @bluewave on is that the west PAC holds the key to change.....we aren't going to see a great winter until that changes. But the ironic thing is that he points that out, and then in the same breath identifies past instances of -NAO/+PNA that peformed better to illustrate the point that fruitful patterns of the past are no longer producing. Well, no shit.....they were more favorable looking around the Bering Sea. Low heights in that area are killing us....it remained a constant last season, which in conjunction with the predominately +NAO is why we saw an inland storm track.  I think the West Pacific warmth correlates to +WPO...we need to see that cool down, or else it really limits how effective any periods of -NAO/+PNA can be.

We can’t blame the WPO for last winter since there was a decent -WPO interval during the Feb 1 to Feb 21 with a solid block in the Bering Sea.This also coincided with a -5 daily -AO which reliably produced KU snowstorms in the past. Very difficult to pull off with such a powerful Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which gave us a potent Great Lakes cutter at the some time the -AO was down near -5. So another Southeast Ridge link up with Greenland to Iceland blocking. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/synoptic/202502

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We can’t blame the WPO for last winter since there was a decent -WPO interval during the Feb 1 to Feb 21 with a solid block in the Bering Sea.This also coincided with a -5 daily -AO which reliably produced KU snowstorms in the past. Very difficult to pull off with such a powerful Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which gave us a potent Great Lakes cutter at the some time the -AO was down near -5. So another Southeast Ridge link up with Greenland to Iceland blocking. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/synoptic/202502

Nice link! That -AO was completely over 90N, and the NAO was raging positive to the south of Greenland, putting a ridge over Europe and a SE ridge. I don't see that pattern as all that anomalous. When the AO first went negative, we had to have to some time to change the heavy Aleutian ridge that happened in Late January/early Feb. 

Remember how the Polar/mid-latitude Cell's work - a ridge centered over 90N puts a trough at 45N. And in the Atlantic at 45-50N was a massive low, since this one was closer it impacts us more.  -5 AO's of the past had an arctic high pressure further south. 

[bluewave]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice link! That -AO was completely over 90N, and the NAO was raging positive to the south of Greenland, putting a ridge over Europe and a SE ridge. I don't see that pattern as all that anomalous, except for the -EPO not producing more cold.

But similar patterns with great -AO blocks over 90N didn’t have any issues producing KU  snowstorms in February 2014 and January 2016.  So we can’t blame the +NAO either since the vortex near Iceland was much stronger those two months than this February. It comes back to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which was much weaker in February 2014 and January 2016.