2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That Midwest warmth in March 2012 was more historic than the cold in 2015 was. The few months with -10 or more departures the CONUS since 2015 have been few and far between compared to the months over +10. This is a CONUS wide phenomenon and not just limited to one region. You can see how getting a +10 month nearly every winter since the 2015 higher temperature reset has become the norm while extreme cold is very isolated to places like Montana. Plus our Arctic outbreaks have shrunk the geographic footprint. So an Arctic outbreak into the Plains doesn’t extend all the way to the coast like it did as recently as the 1990s. 
 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

But if -10 arctic outbreaks that lasted an entire month are few and far between wouldn't that make the -10 monthly departure at NYC in February 2015 even more historic?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2010 to 2018 wasn’t natural variability since the reason the snow increased was due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture while the storm tracks remained cold. 
 

 

It was only really 2010 to about 2015/16. After the January 2016 storm, those tracks pretty much stopped. And even then, we had a 2-year period with record low snow (namely 2011-12 and 2012-13) in the middle of all this. So, it was really only about 4 or 5 seasons that really skew the average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I find it ironic he stated that snowfall has dropped since 1989-90 when the late 80s and early 90s were historically horrible for snowfall here!

 

That isn't the case up here....IDK about the mid Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

I think its more about the orientation of the cool ENSO event than it is the QBO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

2010 to 2018 wasn’t natural variability since the reason the snow increased was due to the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture while the storm tracks remained cold. 
 

 

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if -10 arctic outbreaks that lasted an entire month are few and far between wouldn't that make the -10 monthly departure at NYC in February 2015 even more historic?

 

The thing about the -10, -15 temperature departures in the Eastern US in February 2015 is that it was balanced out by similar positive temperature departures in the Western US: 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing about the -10, -15 temperature departures in the Eastern US in February 2015 is that it was balanced out by similar positive temperature departures in the Western US: 

Was March 2012 heat balanced out by a cold spell somewhere else?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

He thinks the data on very hot summers of the past is fraudulent.  

He said 1993 wasn't that hot and the weather stations had a hot bias with any data from 1995 and prior.

I lived through 1993, I knew exactly how hot it was lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't the case up here....IDK about the mid Atlantic.

Yes, the snowfall ratcheted upward starting with 1993-94 which kicked it off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

He thinks the data on very hot summers of the past is fraudulent.  

He said 1993 wasn't that hot and the weather stations had a hot bias with any data from 1995 and prior.

I lived through 1993, I knew exactly how hot it was lol.

 

Lets just toss data that doesn't suite our respective agendas.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Was March 2012 heat balanced out by a cold spell somewhere else?

 

Not really, it was warm through most of the country. Only the Pacific coast saw below average temperatures, and it wasn't by much: 

[raindancewx]

May 2025 has a decent resemblance to a blend of May 2007/2016 so far. Blazing heat north central us, some coolness south central us, and then muted anomalies by the coasts.

Monsoon development looks like it is on schedule in old Mexico. Models have had a cooler than normal Summer for the Southwest. On-time monsoon development is consistent with that idea.

Cold/Wet July tends to precede snowy December here. We really haven't had a big December in a while locally - since 2015. It is about due. Cool June is a decent indicator for out-of-winter heavy snow events locally, so will be watching that too. My hunch is we get a warm/wet winter, with cool Fall. But we'll see. Very early. 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if -10 arctic outbreaks that lasted an entire month are few and far between wouldn't that make the -10 monthly departure at NYC in February 2015 even more historic?

 

February 2015 was impressively cold on a regional basis here in the Northeast ranking as our only top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since 2010. While there have been over 50 top 10 warmest months since then. February 2015 was the 2nd coldest on record in the Northeast. But nationally it was only the 52nd coldest since the geographic footprint of the cold was very small. Back in the old days these Arctic outbreaks covered much more real estate and weren’t limited to localized geographic regions. February 1979 was the 3rd coldest on record in the Northeast and was also the 7th coldest nationally. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

A reminder, as cold as the winter of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was in the Eastern US, some areas in the West Coast, particularly California, recorded its two warmest winters during that time:

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/17/2025 at 3:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reality is that it's likely a combination of regression and CC that is leading to this snowfall drought along the east coast. I think its patently absurd to ignore the regression element after what happened last decade.

But as we all know, he has a one track agenda and its not swayed under any circumstances. 

Using a regression line is great for a long period of time, but for short periods its nothing more than cherry picking data points to support your agenda. Xmacis makes this super easy for him. Like I posted earlier, I can do the same thing by picking data points. What do you know, Detroits snowfall increased from the 30s to the 60s from 1996 to 2014 .

Of course a regression line at Boston starting in 1990 will be down after the past several low winters which followed record snow in the 2010s. Its a completely pointless and errant argument from a troll. Remember, this latest posting spree of him talking to himself began with him telling bluewave that lowering coastal snowfall jives with his memory (even tho he doesnt live on the east coast) because he remembers "winters of his childhood (1990s) were WAY snowier". After which he was called out by showing that snowfall in Pittsburgh (nearest first order site to where he lives) was much higher in the 2010s than the 1990s. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/18/2025 at 3:07 AM, LibertyBell said:

I find it ironic he stated that snowfall has dropped since 1989-90 when the late 80s and early 90s were historically horrible for snowfall here!

 

Never underestimate the wild stuff he will post when you have a website like xmacis where you can literally plug in any data point to start/end at any given time, for any station. Even the most passionate CC posters know hes a joke.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Now, here is the cold winters of the 1970s (1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). Notice that, unlike 2013-14 and 2014-15, we don't have a warm west coast:

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

It’s going to take a major volcanic eruption in order to see a short term return to something resembling cold winters on a national basis for the CONUS. But these types of events have been lacking since Tambora. Would be an extremely disruptive event if it were to occur. 
 

https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3loqtpd5t6q2k

Large volcanic eruptions have a major climate cooling effect. But the eruptions we've had in the past 170 years have been relatively mild compared to those in the more distant past. Here are climate model simulations of major eruptions since 1750 using FaIR:

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 5/18/2025 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:

That Midwest warmth in March 2012 was more historic than the cold in 2015 was. The few months with -10 or more departures the CONUS since 2015 have been few and far between compared to the months over +10. This is a CONUS wide phenomenon and not just limited to one region. You can see how getting a +10 month nearly every winter since the 2015 higher temperature reset has become the norm while extreme cold is very isolated to places like Montana. Plus our Arctic outbreaks have shrunk the geographic footprint. So an Arctic outbreak into the Plains doesn’t extend all the way to the coast like it did as recently as the 1990s. 
 

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

Yes but you are referencing different regions that got a +10 departure. Its obviously impressive but its not like the same location is getting it every time.

My comment was soley about Feb 2015. To say which was more impressive, Mar 2012 or Feb 2015, is like a pissing contest when in reality both months were extremely impressive. But Id consider it a pretty subjective argument over which was more impressive, at least in the areas that were impacted the hardest by both months (ie: the upper midwest).

Here at Detroit, the departure in March 2012 was +13.5F and in February 2015 it was -13.9F.

Both months departures were similar (with the edge actually going to Feb '15) but one way to look at it the other way, is that while March 2012 was nearly unheard of in its early warmth (a similar but ever so slighly less extreme warm spell occurred in Mar 1945), the actual temperatures (mid to upper 70s with 3 days of low to mid 80s) were not at all unheard of, just an incredible 1-2 months earlier than you would typically see a warm spell of that magnitude.

On the other hand, February is already the dead of winter, the 2nd coldest month of the year on average, just slightly behind January. So when you add those departures into the dead of winter you get absolutely brutal cold. In 155 years of records, only Feb 1875, Jan 1912, Jan 1918, & Jan 1977 were colder. Furthermore, Detroit kind of was the national spotlight in 2013-14 due to the harsh winter, but that moved to Boston in 2015 with all the heavy snow. Rightly so, but while Boston was getting buried, the cold here was just brutal. We had deep snow on the ground, but it was the cold making daily headlines, often with them telling people not to go outside unless they had to with the wind chills.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

Yup. Which is why those of us in colder climates to begin with should be licking our chops at the POTENTIAL a wetter winter climate holds wrt snowy winters when the patterns are good. Cold is such a subjective word. Whats "cold" to one region is "mild" to another. But snow is snow. 

When we JUST lived through the snowiest stretch on record just over a decade ago, Im supposed to believe that a few lower snow winters (and here they have been just that - lower snow, nothing close to record low) are the point of no return. When I live surrounded by the Great Lakes? Sure, Jan. Similar case for new england with the ocean nearby.

The inability to understand weather patterns and how patterns work is WILD when someone is trying to hammer in one single (often incorrect) argument lol.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to take a major volcanic eruption in order to see a short term return to something resembling cold winters. But these types of events have been lacking since Tambora. Would be an extremely disruptive event if it were to occur. 
 

https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3loqtpd5t6q2k

Large volcanic eruptions have a major climate cooling effect. But the eruptions we've had in the past 170 years have been relatively mild compared to those in the more distant past. Here are climate model simulations of major eruptions since 1750 using FaIR:

 

We had that event with Pinatubo, but its effect was minimized by a strong el nino in 1991-92. If we had a strong la nina that year, like 2007-08, we would have had a -0.7, -0.8 cooling event.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Was March 2012 heat balanced out by a cold spell somewhere else?

 

There was extreme cold in Europe at the time, but not the U.S.

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

He thinks the data on very hot summers of the past is fraudulent.  

He said 1993 wasn't that hot and the weather stations had a hot bias with any data from 1995 and prior.

I lived through 1993, I knew exactly how hot it was lol.

 

Oh believe me, he doesnt stop there. He has an excuse for every warm or low snow record from the old days being wrong. The thermometers were placed wrong, the thermometers were inaccurate, it was more in the heart of a city (which probably had dirt roads), snowfall was measured wrong, snowfall has to be wrong because this station 30 miles away had more, etc etc etc. Depending on the day it can vary from annoying to actually entertaining.

Funny thing for me, I was 12 in 1995, so my real interest in weather kicked into high gear when we had a real string of shit winters - 1993-94 through 1997-98 sucked for the most part. So while I know the east had an amazing 95-96, we did not, and I just have to LAUGH at the notion 1990s winters were better than 2000s-2010s because HERE at least, it wasnt even CLOSE. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 5/17/2025 at 8:02 AM, michsnowfreak said:

No need to feed the troll. 

2013-14 wasn't just a good winter here, it was literally the most severe winter in recorded history.

No need to call someone a troll for having a different opinion than you.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes but you are referencing different regions that got a +10 departure. Its obviously impressive but its not like the same location is getting it every time.

My comment was soley about Feb 2015. To say which was more impressive, Mar 2012 or Feb 2015, is like a pissing contest when in reality both months were extremely impressive. But Id consider it a pretty subjective argument over which was more impressive, at least in the areas that were impacted the hardest by both months (ie: the upper midwest).

Here at Detroit, the departure in March 2012 was +13.5F and in February 2015 it was -13.9F.

Both months departures were similar (with the edge actually going to Feb '15) but one way to look at it the other way, is that while March 2012 was nearly unheard of in its early warmth (a similar but ever so slighly less extreme warm spell occurred in Mar 1945), the actual temperatures (mid to upper 70s with 3 days of low to mid 80s) were not at all unheard of, just an incredible 1-2 months earlier than you would typically see a warm spell of that magnitude.

On the other hand, February is already the dead of winter, the 2nd coldest month of the year on average, just slightly behind January. So when you add those departures into the dead of winter you get absolutely brutal cold. In 155 years of records, only Feb 1875, Jan 1912, Jan 1918, & Jan 1977 were colder. Furthermore, Detroit kind of was the national spotlight in 2013-14 due to the harsh winter, but that moved to Boston in 2015 with all the heavy snow. Rightly so, but while Boston was getting buried, the cold here was just brutal. We had deep snow on the ground, but it was the cold making daily headlines, often with them telling people not to go outside unless they had to with the wind chills.

But the magnitude of the March 2012 warmth both regionally and nationally far exceeded the local and regional cold in a month like February 2015. The aerial coverage of the +10 areas in March 2012 was significantly greater than coverage of sites which experienced the -10s and lower in February 2015. Plus the records for March 2012 absolute warmth in its warmest zones far exceeded the coldest minimums in February 2015. While the average cold for February 2015 was impressive, it was nowhere near the February 1934 benchmark cold when NYC dropped to -15 and many locations in the Northeast set all-time records for cold.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 5/16/2025 at 7:21 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I know right!? It's the same song and dance shtick with him in every forum. It's not about CC anyway, it's about his extremist and wild agenda. Hes been called out and ignored on every subforum. He comments on a post about lowering snowfall on the I95 east coast by saying its correct he "remembers" winters were "much snowier" when he was a kid (1990s) by posting a chart of Cleveland snowfall, a place impacted by LES & one which he didn't live anywhere near as a kid. Called out his BS cherry pick by noting how nearly all major cities near Cleveland had LESS snow in the 1990s than recent decades, and he proceeds to post linear regression stats for random cities. And more of his talking to him self posting sprees. Obvious linear regression charts for small time frames will have huge impacts if the past few winters had lower snow. Same joke, different day lol. 

Look at the snowfall regression at Detroit from 1996 to 2014, when you start at an unusually low winter and end at a record high winter. I guess my average went from the 30s to the 60s inches from the 1990s to 2010s lol.

It's now "cherrypicking" to end a trend using all available data up through the most recent year rather than cutting off over a decade ago? And you used your backyard when I looked at dozens of sites across the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and East Coast.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 5/17/2025 at 11:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theoretically speaking, the combination of a better pattern relative to the atrocious regime of the past several years coupled with increased moisture owed to a warmer climate...not to mention any potential volcanic implications.

Surely you have considered this given that you are a bastion of objectivity on the topic, Mr. @TheClimateChanger...

I didn't say the atmosphere doesn't hold moisture. Just that there's only a modest positive trend in total precipitation in the winter months. I went back and looked at DJFM and there's actually a decreasing trend further south (DC & Baltimore) over those four months. An increase in moisture tells us little about snowfall, without considering temperature. The atmosphere over Charlotte, North Carolina holds, on average, more moisture in the winter than New York City - but obviously Charlotte doesn't get more snowfall.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

No need to call someone a troll for having a different opinion than you.

If you truly take an interest in climate change, thats fine. But your posts come across more troll-like than anything else. 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

He thinks the data on very hot summers of the past is fraudulent.  

He said 1993 wasn't that hot and the weather stations had a hot bias with any data from 1995 and prior.

I lived through 1993, I knew exactly how hot it was lol.

 

I didn't say that. I pointed out first order sites have a warm bias from that era, which is well supported by actual research.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the magnitude of the March 2012 warmth both regionally and nationally far exceeded the local and regional cold in a month like February 2015. The aerial coverage of the +10 areas in March 2012 was significantly greater than coverage of sites which experienced the -10s and lower in February 2015. Plus the records for March 2012 absolute warmth in its warmest zones far exceeded the coldest minimums in February 2015. While the average cold for February 2015 was impressive, it was nowhere near the February 1934 benchmark cold when NYC dropped to -15 and many locations in the Northeast set all-time records for cold.

Yeah I wasnt denying the magnitude of March 2012, just for which areas were hardest hit. 

I think the duration of the cold in Feb 2015 was what was so impressive, not any individual number. Jan 2019 and even Jan 2024 had very impressive arctic blasts in areas which created some real low temps at places, but the months themselves were nothing impressive from a mean temp standpoint.